Capitals 2, Maple Leafs 3

It’s nice to beat the best team in the Conference in their own building, but it’s hard to feel too good or build too much momentum when you come back and lose to the 12th ranked ream in your own building.

Capitals fans are of course keenly aware of this and the wake has led to a lot of scapegoating. Here’s who’s being blamed:

Olaf Kolzig. Who knew Capitals fans were of such a “what have you done for me lately” variety? Kolzig has become the number one scapegoat for the team this season and while I think that he certainly has not played all that well he deserves better than what some fans want, including one who wanted him sent to the AHL in order to “make a statement” (note: for Kolzig to be sent to the AHL he would have to clear waivers, which is unlikely to happen. Kolzig, a class act for many, many years would likely be lost on waivers to essentially punish him for being human and having his skills decline with age and would simply be a classless act, and a P.R. disaster, for the organization). The numbers suggest Kolzig can’t play every night at his age - he put up save percentages of .860 or so in December and January when Bruce Boudreau was riding him heavily but had a .922 save percentage in February once Brent Johnson started to see more playing time. Kolzig is fine as a backup. As for last night - he wasn’t exactly a sieve but the Mats Sundin goal should have been stopped - a shot with no traffic and from that angle always should be.

Bruce Boudreau. I’ve seen more than one person suggest Boudreau should have started Cristobal Huet last night rather than Kolzig. That criticism has some merit, but given how Olie had been playing of late and the fact that the Caps were playing on back-to-back days, in different cities, it was not unreasonable to play Kolzig last night.

George McPhee. Huh? Yeah, doesn’t make enough sense, but I’ve seen people doing it, faulting McPhee for letting Kolzig play (not his decision), picking up Fedorov (who was fine) and failing to pick up a better defenseman at the trade deadline. I have to this: anyone who thinks McPhee is doing a poor job either (1) is taking their cues on the difficult of being a GM from a video game (2) is looking for reasons to be grumpy and be upset at McPhee because they’ve been scapegoating him for so long and/or (3) has no appreciation for how difficult it is to be a general manager in the NHL. I’m sure there are constructive arguments that can be made criticism McPhee’s ability as a GM…but I haven’t heard any yet.

Ted Leonsis. Another head-scratcher to me, but there are people faulting him for the fact that Olie got the start…because we all know it’d be better to have an over-involved Dan Snyder or Peter Angelos type owner, right?

Tomas Fleischmann and Alexander Semin both missed good chances last night.

Team Effort. This seem to be the go-to excuse any time a team loses a hockey game, but the fact that it’s the once Boudreau cited makes it carry a little more weight in my mind. Still, although I think the Capitals effort could have been better for portions of the second period, yet I don’t think it cost them the game.

The Powerplay. The Caps were 0-5 with the man advantage and it seemed like the Leafs actually gained momentum by taking penalties and killing them off.

That there are many suggested causes (scapegoats?) for this loss leads me to think it was a case of “just not enough”. The Capitals offense just couldn’t quite convert on their chances, the defense just couldn’t quite bottle the Leafs attack and Olaf Kolzig wasn’t quite good enough to pick up his teammates. No one was terrible, but a lot of guys were mediocre and when no one steps up and carries the team on their shoulders, that’s just not enough to win.

With the trade deadline less than twenty-four hours away, talk around the NHL has (understandably) been focused on trades. The same is true in the nation’s capital where, for the first time in recent memory, the Capitals are not sellers at the deadline. But does that make them buyers?

Not necessarily. George McPhee has said that he may try and bolster the Capitals depth if he can acquire a player he thinks is worthwhile without giving up too much in the way of assets, be them players for future draft picks. While McPhee certainly has his supporters in this approach, there are more than a couple playoff-hungry Capitals fan who want to see McPhee make a big move to help lock up a playoff spot, and the names Brad Richards and Adam Foote are popping up way more than they should (which is to say, more than just in passing).

To understand my, and I suppose McPhee’s, aversion to making a big trade at the current deadline you have to look at the NHL’s general managers, the frameworks they use and what it takes to be successful versus what usually ends up with the GM getting the boot and a franchise in disrepair.

The best-run NHL organizations have one underlying factor: the interests of the general manager are aligned with the interests of the franchise in the long run. When this is the case a GM can make decisions with the long-term heath and competitiveness of the club in mind which, if the GM is decent at his job, means holding on to high draft picks and prospects while refraining from making unnecessary trades involving headline-grabbing names and overpaying for free agents. Provided such an organization is not hit by injuries and does a halfway decent job of drafting, it should remain competitive year in and year out, while still retaining a deep enough prospect pool that they can make a landscape-changing deal when they need it. Examples of such organizations in recent years include the Ottawa Senators, the Buffalo Sabres and the Montreal Canadiens.

The antithesis of these organizations are those that have general managers who are influenced by something other than the best interests of their team, be it a clamoring fan base, intense media scrutiny or an overbearing owner. These situations almost inevitably breed failure, as GMs continually look for the all-but-unattainable: a solution that will fix all their problems and in readily available (a combination of “fix-all” and “quick-fix”). The results are ugly as teams wind up mortgaging their future, oftentimes to get only marginally better. Caps fans don’t need to look at further than Southeast rival Atlanta and Caps Blue Line’s least favorite currently-employed GM, Don Waddell to find an example for how easily things can go awry for an organization in this situation. Another recent example would be John Ferguson Jr.’s tenure in Toronto.

General managers like Waddell and Ferguson only win as a happy accident and subsequently simply do not win consistently. Rather than being the ones who steer their teams to glory, these GMs are the ones who are taken advantage of by their more savvy peers. As an aside, Paul Holmgrin, in Philadelphia, has proven quite adept at this, taking advantage of David Poile and Craig Leopold’s initial drive to make noise in the playoffs and then to cut costs in Nashville, Waddell’s desperation to make the playoffs and keep his job and Kevin Lowe’s general insanity and embarrassment at not signing Ryan Smyth. Holmgrin was in turn able to spin (1) Peter Forsberg for Ryan Parent, Scottie Upshall, a 1st round pick and a 3rd round pick (2) Alexei Zhitnik for Braydon Coburn (3) Joni Pitkanen, Geoff Sanderson and a 3rd round pick for Jason Smith and Joffrey Lupul and (4) a 1st round pick for Kimmo Timonen and Scott Hartnell.

Back to the matter at hand: this is why I think McPhee has the right approach. I’d rather the Capitals organization be talked about the way Buffalo or Ottawa has been in recent years, not the way Atlanta and Toronto are.

Capitals 2, Maple Leafs 1

Now that’s more like it.

After clearly outplaying the Maple Leafs Wednesday night in Toronto and losing, the Capitals came home to Verizon Center last night and claimed two points in a game in which they were outshot 32-20 and in which they twice had the man advantage and saw themselves shorthanded five time. If we’re going to be objective, you’d have to look at this game and say the Capitals didn’t necessarily deserve two points. Not that they were outplayed or deserved to lose per se (I don’t think Toronto played all that well either), but the Maple Leafs were pretty effective in shutting down the Caps offense and without the stellar performance from Brent Johnson Washington’s defense wouldn’t have looked that great either. But given that the karmic balance after last night was such that the Capitals were probably deserving of two, I won’t feel too bad about it.

The story of last night’s game goes beyond the Capitals and the Maple Leafs though. Now, heading into the all-star break, the Capitals are the only team in the Southeast Division above .500 and are one point out of the division lead, with two games in hand. I can’t speak for any other Capitals fans but if I were offered that scenario at the beginning of the season, I would have taken it. If I’d been offered it Thanksgiving Day I would have asked if you thought I believed in Santa Claus too.

Yet here we are, mid-January and the Capitals are not only poised to take control of the Southeast Division, they are clearly looking like the class of the division, going 17-8-4 since Bruce Boudreau took over while each of the other teams in the Southeast have played well below .500 since then. With Carolina and Atlanta still looking inconsistent at best it would be surprising if the Capitals don’t take first place in the division with their two games in hand on the ‘Canes. It’d be even more surprising if, once they took the lead, they ever relinquished it.

DMG’s 3 Stars
(1) Brent Johnson - 31 saves on 32 shots, .969 save percentage
(2) Alexander Ovechkin - 2 assists
(3) Viktor Kozlov - 1 goal (game winner)

Quotable

Since Coach Bruce Boudreau stepped behind the bench on Nov. 22, Johnson has been one of the team’s best players. He is 5-1 with a 2.05 goals against average and .926 save percentage since Boudreau arrived, and his coach believes he has earned the right to play more down the stretch.

Quick Hits

• John Erskine’s first period penalty for delay of game was real bad because there’s no reason to even come close to putting the puck off the rink when there’s no pressure.
• Each Capitals player who took a faceoff (Nicklas Backstrom, Brooks Laich, David Steckel, Boyd Gordon, Matt Bradley) was at 58% effectiveness or higher. For the game the Capitals won 33 of 53 faceoffs (62%).
• Milan Jurcina led the Capitals with six hits. Nice to see the big man finally using his body.

Photos: AP

Maple Leafs 3, Capitals 2

I can’t remember the last time I saw a team get dominated like the Maple Leafs were last night and still win the game. The Capitals outhit, outshot, outchanced, outskated and outworked the home team in Toronto last night but they just couldn’t outscore them.

Two things can bury a team that generally outplays its opponent: bad luck and bad plays; the Capitals fell victim to both. The Leafs first game came when Donald Brashear tried to make a between-the-legs breakout pass in his own zone (bad play). The Leafs second goal came at the end of a sequences where the puck was kept in the Capitals end because Mike Green blew a tire behind his own goal line (bad luck). The Leafs third goal came because whoever should have been covering Mats Sundin (the center on the line, I think Dave Steckel) was no where to be found (bad play), because Olaf Kolzig put a rebound in a bad area (bad play) and because Sundin just happened to be in exactly the right/wrong spot (bad luck). Take away those combined thirty seconds and there’s really nothing to complain about as a Caps fan.

The Capitals haven’t yet lost consecutive games in regulation under Bruce Boudreau and with the team coming home and looking to get the two points they earned last night, I’d be willing to bet today won’t be the first time it happens either.

Quick Hits

• If he’s going to hit like that every game I, for one, can overlook John Erskine’s deficiencies in the skating department.
• Where was Tom Poti going with that hog-tie on Dominic Moore?
• The Maple Leafs had 11 players take shots; the Capitals had 16.

Leafs GM Ferguson Fired

TSN reports that Maple Leafs President Richard Peddie has called the hiring of Leafs GM John Ferguson Jr. “a mistake”.

So there you have. Hiring Ferguson was officially a mistake. In other news the sky is blue, the Pope is Catholic and just about everyone on the Leafs blueline is overpaid.

Capitals 7, Maple Leafs 1

It appears reports of the Washington Capitals demise have been greatly exaggerated. On the strength of two Alexander Ovechkin goals, as well as tallies from Matt Bradley, Brian Sutherby, Jeff Schultz and Matt Pettinger (the first of the year for each) the Capitals were able to rout the Maple Leafs 7-1, despite playing without two of their top six forwards (Clark, Semin) and their top defenseman (Poti). Olaf Kolzig rebounded from allowing a goal on the first Toronto shot to stop 32 of 33, holding one of the NHL’s most potent offenses to just one score.

There’s really not a lot of in-depth analysis you can do after a 7-1 game most of the time. The Caps exploited the Leafs weaknesses (bad turnovers, slow defensemen, sieve-like goalies) and didn’t miss their chances to put the puck in the net.

I would guess the players-only meeting in St. Louis helped a lot. There’s only so much a coach can do on his one. In terms of what he sees about what to change or what needs improvement, he’s only one guy. Yes, he’s paid to be the go-to guy for that sort of thing but there are a lot more players than there are members of the coaching staff. Aside of that players can call one another out. Coaches can too of course, but it’s classes for a coach to single a guy out in front of the whole team. On the other hand veteran players can say much worse without creating an us-versus-them mentality. Great decision by the veterans to hold the meeting at that time.

The important thing to get from a win like this is momentum. The Caps came into one of the loudest, most packed buildings in the NHL and dominated the opposition, despite being without three of the most important players - that’s the type of game that can lead to big-time winning streak or a great run. Hopefully the Caps can take some momentum from the Leafs game and building on it when they face the Rangers on Thursday.

A few quick hits:

• Sutherby was wearing a ‘A’, an interesting decision given that he’s only played this year because of injuries.
• Maybe it’s unfair to criticize a guy who stopped 32 of 33 shots by the goal Kolzig let in was a softie. If you took away the goals that have made if by him by either going through the five-hole or slipping under the leg pads you could cut his GAA in half.
• Jeff Schultz’s goal was his first in the NHL

Wayward Sports Sons Three Stars:
(1) Alex Ovechkin (2 goals, 7 shots, +1)
(2) Matt Bradley (1 goal, 2 assists, +3)
(3) Michael Nylander (3 assists, +1)

Quotable

“It’s really important for our [checking line forwards] to shut the other team down. We didn’t want them thinking they had to score, but it gets to a certain point where they have to contribute something down the line offensively.”

-Glen Hanlon

“I think we deserved tonight’s win.”

-Alex Ovechkin

The Capitals are facing a tough task in an important game as they travel to Toronto tonight to take on the Maple Leafs (5-4-3). According to Tarik Alexander Semin, Tom Poti and Chris Clark are all “doubtful/questionable” for the game. Given that Semin’s injury has seemingly disappeared only to pop up twice already, Poti’s nursing a groin strain (which are tricky for hockey players) and Clark hasn’t been spotted with the team in Toronto I’d say there’s not much chance of seeing any of them tonight, meaning the Caps will again be with out several key players.

Toronto is a talented team: Mats Sundin, Nik Antropov and Jason Blake provide the team with solid scoring and the defense is lead by two of the best in the game in Tomas Kaberle and Bryan McCabe. The secondary/role players are solid too; most team would be happy to have either Hal Gill (who Jagr once said was the toughest defenseman to play against) or Pavel Kubina on their second pairing, let alone both. At the other end Antropov and Alexander Steen provide enough scoring depth that the Leafs won’t have to rely on their first line.

But the Leafs have obvious holes too, the most obvious of which is goaltending. Neither Vesa Toskala nor Andrew Raycroft is good enough to be the type of goalie an NHL team would want to be their number one, something the Leafs 28th ranked 3.59 GAA suggests). The Capitals have been outshooting their opponents for the most part this season and they need to continue to do so against Toronto, especially against goalies like Raycroft and Toskala each of whom are both inconsistent and too small to be able to cover the whole net at once. If the Caps can get traffic in front they could easily see a shot or two get through from the outside or the point.

Kubina and Gill are both solid defensemen, especially in their own zone, but both are big, physical players who can be beaten by speedy forwards. Even without Semin and Clark the Caps have a lot of those guys: Ovechkin, Backstrom, Fleischmann and Nylander all posses some combination of speed, agility and puck control that will make them difficult for the Leafs bigger defensemen to control. Add that to the tendency McCabe, Ian White and Andy Wozniewski each have to make mistakes in their own end that to lead to chances for the opposition and the Capitals should have plenty of chance to put the biscuit in the basket (to borrow a phrase from Craig Laughlin).

Finally the Leafs simply take too many penalties (their 201 PIMs are third in the league thus far). McCabe, Gill, Kubina, Antropov and even Jason Blake are guys who will take frustration penalties and the Caps should be able to make a fairly slow defense take penalties to prevent good scoring chances.

There really is not such a thing as a must-win game and this point in the season, but the difference between a win and a loss is huge for the Capitals right now. A loss would take them to 4-7 and 1-7 since a 3-0 start; a win puts them one more win away from .500, gets out some of the frustration the team must be feeling after a pair of one-goal losses in which the Caps outplayed their opponents and would provide a boost for a team likely to be playing without its number one defenseman, number two scoring threat and captain. The team knows this and a players-only meeting was held after the last game. The team seems to know their situation: they’re not in real hot water yet but there’s no reason this ship can’t be righted right now.

When it comes down to it, there is no doubt Toronto is a talent team but the Capitals, with their multiple scoring threats and solid checking line, match up well against them. Air Canada Centre is tough place to visit as an opposing player and if the injury-riddled Caps are able to pull one out it could provide some significant positive momentum.

Quotable

“We just cleared the air about a few things. We’re taking too many penalties right now. Whether they are in the offensive zone, or defensive zone. And just confidence. We had a swagger at the start of the year. We have to get that back. [The meeting] was good.”

-Matt Pettinger on the players-only meeting the team held after their 4-3 loss in St. Louis.

“We definitely need those people, but it’s an opportunity for other people to step forward. We have people who are fighting for their NHL lives here. If you give up that many minutes, someone’s going to have an opportunity to step up and play.”

-Glen Hanlon

Notes
This from the Post Preview: “The Maple Leafs find themselves in similarly sad shape [in terms of injuries]. They won’t have forwards Darcy Tucker (right knee) and Kyle Wellwood (groin) or defensemen Carlo Colaiacovo (knee) and Bryan McCabe (groin)…The Leafs are third in the NHL in penalty minutes but tied for 14th (with seven other teams) in fighting majors… Toronto is 5-2-0 with one tie in its last eight home games against Washington.

Other Previews: WashingtonCaps.com (AP), Maple Leafs Official Site (AP), Washington Post

According to TSN the Maple Leafs are trying to acquire junior star John Tavares. The plan apparently is to have Tavares sign a contract with the Leafs’ AHL affiliate (also based in Toronto), and not sign with whichever NHL team drafted him. Then after two years, when the team that has drafted him saw their exclusive rights to Tavares expire, Tavares would sign with the Leafs. TSN’s Bob McKenzie sums it up:

It’s said the Leafs’ plan was to sign Tavares to a three-year AHL contract, suggesting he could play a year in the AHL, get drafted into the NHL, play two more years in the AHL and then become an unrestricted free agent in the NHL and sign with the Toronto Maple Leafs in the summer of 2011.

A sneaky move no doubt but it’s not really feasible. People are talking about Tavares like he could come into the NHL and have the same kind of impact as Sidney Crosby or Alex Ovechkin. Given this it’s unlikely Tavares would want to put off playing in the NHL for two years (and signing his first NHL contract) in order to play for the Leafs. I suppose it’s worth a shot but with how poorly his team has been performing the last few season and his job unquestionably in danger John Ferguson Jr really ought to be worrying about more practical things.