9/22, 10:54 AM - 2008-09 Season Preview: Defensemen
Depth Chart
(1) Mike Green
(2) Tom Poti
(3) Shaone Morrisonn
(4) Jeff Schultz
(5) Brian Pothier
(6) Milan Jurcina
(7) John Erskine
(8) Karl Alzner
(9) Sami Lepisto
Players to Watch
Ready to Break Out
Jeff Schultz. In my humble opinion, Schultz is the most underrated player on the Capitals due in part to his understated of play and in part to the fact that for his size (6’6’’, 221 pounds) Schultz doesn’t play a particularly physical game. He might not be a big hitter, but Schultz is a very solid stay-at-home defenseman who rarely makes mistakes. If Schultz has another good year of development, he could be number three on the Capitals’ depth chart by the end of the season.
It’s “Do or Die” time for…
Milan Jurcina. Like Schultz, Jurcina is a stay-at-home defenseman. The Capitals have, both on their roster and in their system, plenty of guys who can create offense from the blueline in Mike Green, Tom Poti, Karl Alzner, Josh Godfrey, Sami Lepisto, and Brian Pothier (if healthy). Given this, a defenseman with limited offensive upside like Jurcina has to be able to disrupt the opposition’s offense and play mistake-free hockey. When Jurcina is playing well he does both; when he plays poorly he does neither and gives up far too many quality scoring chances, and unfortunately for Jurcina he has far too many games where he plays poorly. If Jurcina can’t become a more consistent player, the Capitals are likely to see him as too much of a liability and cut their ties.
Burning Questions
(1) Will Brian Pothier play?
Pothier’s 2007-08 season came to an end on January 3rd when he suffered a severe concussion on a hit from Boston’s Milan Lucic. Six months later the injury was still serious enough that Pothier wound up in bed for more than a week after attempting to jog “a couple of blocks”. Pothier’s not going to be ready to take the ice before the season starts but if does come back his return would have significant repercussions for the Capitals, affecting the team not only on the ice but also in terms of who may stay and who may be demoted to Hershey, salary cap complexities, and perhaps necessitating a trade of either Milan Jurcina or John Erskine. If Pothier can’t play, there’s a good chance Sami Lepisto will be given an opportunity to take his place as an adequate defender who can provide offensive support.
(2) How good is Karl Alzner?
Alzner seems to be increasingly shaping up as a blue-ship prospect who will one day be a true number one defenseman in the NHL. The question is: how good is he right now? If Alzner’s ready to play at the NHL level on October 10th (meaning he has passed John Erskine on the depth chart), Washington’s defense will be faster, more skilled, and better offensively than they were last season.
(3) Can Mike Green replicate his offensive output from 2007-08?
There was no bigger surprise for the Capitals last season than Mike Green, who scored eighteen goals and fifty-six points after coming into the season with three goals and fifteen points in ninety NHL games. Green’s offensive explosion was the result of a number of factors: a high number of shooting opportunities, Bruce Boudreau’s system, a high shooting percentage, and the solid play of defensive partner Shaone Morrisonn. Green clearly has a ton of talent but it’s somewhat unlikely that everything will go right for him again in 2008-09, so it will be difficult for him to match his scoring totals from last season.
Tomas Fleischmann - Flash has nothing left to prove at the AHL level, where he’s scored 114 points in 102 games since 2005, but he hasn’t been able to consistently contribute offensively in Washington. I think Flash stands a pretty good chance at getting on the scoresheet on a regular basis now that he’s becoming aware that he is not skilled enough to get by on skill alone and has hence started working harder without the puck and driving to the net. I’m still not completely sold on Fleischmann though and time is starting to run out for him, although you’d have to think that if he’s ever going to show he can play at the NHL level it would be under another relatively slight winger who showed a ton of skill in the minors but couldn’t stick in the NHL.
Viktor Kozlov - Kozlov hasn’t been as bad as some Caps fans seem to think (a number of people have recently advocated his benching in the comments on Capitals Insider). He’s second on the team in assists and shots and is getting his chances - he just needs to start converting them. And he will.
Olaf Kolzig - After allowing six goals on 22 shots against Ottawa (despite not playing all that poorly) Kolzig’s save percentage is down to .888 and his GAA up to 3.02. His numbers haven’t been stellar and he’s let in a number of soft goals, but he has been playing better recently, even if the numbers don’t show it. With Johnson out 2-4 weeks and with the team playing well and gaining ground in the playoff race the Capitals need Kolzig to be a solid presence in net.
Matt Pettinger - In a season that has been disappointing thus far for Capitals fans perhaps no single player has been as disappointing as Pettinger, who has only five points in 37 games and was a healthy scratch against Ottawa. But the numbers look worse than Pettinger’s play has been - while Pettinger has only two goals he is getting his chances and his shots per game average (1.86) is about the same as what it’s been the last couple years (1.81), and you don’t go from being a guy who shoots better than 14% to a guy who shoots under 3% without some bad luck in there. Although Pettinger has only three assists he has played much of the year with Boyd Gordon and David Steckel, neither of whom is finding the net on a regular basis. At this point I think Pettinger’s problem is largely mental - he looked like he was on his game early in the year and I think the lack of success he’s had playing his game started to get to him, he started to doubt himself, got off his game and has looked a little lost. Hopefully sitting out a game or two helps him get his head back together and boosts his on-ice performance.
Jeff Schultz - Schultz is a defensive defenseman, so unlike Kolzig or Kozlov it might not be as obvious when he turns a corner and is able to elevate his game. Rather than flashy goals or saves, Schultz is at his best when he plays positionally, frustrates opponents and avoids mistakes. Not especially jaw-dropping stuff, but it’s an important role nonetheless. Sarge has been looking smarter and more comfortable almost by the game and is close to becoming a very solid backline presence. Schultz has also taken some heat for not being physical enough given his size (6′5”, 215) and the nature of his game. I don’t think it’s that Schultz won’t initiate contact, I think it’s that he doesn’t want to draw himself out of position trying to deliver a big hit. As he become more aware and more confident in his own end watch for his physical game to improve as well.
David Steckel - I conceived this post a couple weeks ago, but the holidays make me lazy (you know it happens to you too) and I wish that I’d written it up before before Steckel three-point performance against Tampa Bay, but here it goes anyway: Steckel has received praise from Caps management and fans for doing jobs that are all too often underappreciated (playing a defensive role, faceoffs, penalty kills) and so it’s become easy to forget that he put up 61 points (30+31) in 71 games for Hershey last year. While Steckel will never be a great scorer at the NHL level he has enough talent to chip in offensively on a consistent basis. Lately he’s looked more comfortable in the offensive end, going to the net more often, being more assertive and showing better vision, so I’d expect some points to follow.