The Capitals’ loss of Cristobal Huet and their subsequent decision to replace him with Jose Theodore have immediately sparked intense debate amongst Caps fans, blogging community included. JP of Japers’ Rink contends that Theodore may just be the better goaltender, as does Pepper of the Red Skate. At the other end of the spectrum is Pucks’n’books from On Frozen Blog, who is echoing the sentiments of many disappointed Capitals fans (albeit in a much more reasoned and eloquent manner).

For any Capitals fan it’s impossible to be completely at ease with this personnel change: Theodore has been one of the most notoriously inconsistent goalies in the league over the last decade and it was easy to become attached to Huet for his play during the team’s incredible finish to the season. Despite this, George McPhee and the rest of the Capitals’ front office made the right decision when they elected to bring in Theodore, for two reasons.

The first is that Huet and his agent were apparently jerking the Capitals around during the negotiation sessions:

[McPhee] said the Caps started at the 3 years/$3.7 million and Huet’s camp started at 3 years/$5 million. McPhee said the Caps came up to $4.3 and then $4.6 and finally to $5 million per season, but Bartlett/Huet decided they wanted to test the market.

Other reports indicate that once Huet received his four-year, 22 million dollar contract offer from Chicago he and his agent came back and asked the Capitals to match, which the Capitals declined to do. Although the case could be made that Huet would have been worth the $5.6 million per year he’s getting from Chicago, there’s no reason to assume Huet and his agent were negotiating in good faith at the point they asked the Capitals to match. After all, Huet was given the contract he asked for, chose walk anyway, and then came back essentially asking the Capitals to engage in a bidding war with the Blackhawks. If the Capitals had matched Chicago’s offer why would it be more reasonable to assume Huet would have signed, rather than go back to Chicago’s management and asked for more? If this happens, the risk increases that Theodore signs elsewhere and leaves the Capitals no choice but to vastly overpay for Huet or sign a second-tier free agent like Ty Conklin, Alex Auld or Ray Emery.

The second is that the signing of Theodore to replace Huet may actually make the team better. The point of personnel decisions in professional sports isn’t to get the best player or the biggest name player and it’s definitely not to fall in love with, and overpay for, a player who played well for your team during a two month stretch. Rather, it’s to maximize a somewhat abstract characteristic that could be referred to as “ability to win games at an [NHL, MLB, NFL, etc] level”, “team competitiveness at a high level” or something of the like subject to any given constraints (in the case of the Capitals for 2008-09, that would be the 56.7 million dollar salary cap).

The dollar amount, and hence cap space, the Capitals have freed up by signing Theodore rather than Huet is not insignificant. For each of the next two years, Theodore’s cap hit will be 1.1 million dollars lower than Huet’s, an amount that personnel-wise translates into a valuable depth player like Matt Bradley ($1.1 million), Donald Brashear ($1.2 million), Boyd Gordon ($650,000 in 2007-08) or Milan Jurcina ($912,000) or the majority of a cap hit for a rookie (for example, Karl Alzner’s cap number in 2008-09 will be $1.675 million). Given the Capitals’ current cap-crunch, it could be the difference between retaining Shaone Morrisonn, Brooks Laich and Sergei Fedorov and having to let one of them walk. Three and four years out, when Huet will be 36 and 37 years old, the $5.6 million in salary cap space saved by the Capitals can be used to help finance extensions for Alexander Semin and Nicklas Backstrom. Assuming the Capitals manage their assets well (and recent history suggests they will), Theodore at $4.5 million for two years is better than Huet at $5.6 million over four year both in the short term and long term.

It may very well be the case that Huet is a better player than Theodore, but Theodore is the better signing.

Per TSN:

The Washington Capitals have signed goaltender Jose Theodore to a two-year contract.

Theodore, 31, became an unrestricted free agent on July 1 after playing out a three-year, $16 million contract. The former Montreal Canadien came off a solid 2007-08 campaign, posting a 28-21-3 record and a 2.44 goals against average.

This probably means the Caps weren’t as close to terms with Cristobal Huet as it seemed. As for the on-the-ice product, Theodore is a gamble and has been nothing if not inconsistent. If playing with a young, talented team revitalizes him, this could be a good signing for the Capitals. If Theodore reverts to his 2005 or 2006 form (in which he had a save percentage well below .900) his contract becomes dead cap space.

The important thing for Capitals fans will be to reserve judgment until the terms of whatever contract Huet signs are announced. If it turns out that someone is offering Huet seven million dollars a year and that for the Capitals to match it would have meant they had to sacrifice in other areas, they will have made the right decision. However, if Huet signs a three-year, $15 million contract elsewhere, Washington hockey fans will be left scratching their heads.

In the end, the Capitals basically became the victims of a weak goaltending free agent market. Of course things could be worse: less than 15 minutes after the announcement that Theodore had signed with the Capitas, his former employer (Colorado) announced they had signed Andrew Raycroft.

The good: The Capitals have re-signed one of their key components, agreeing to a four year, 21 million dollar contract with Mike Green:

The Washington Capitals have agreed to terms with restricted free agent defenceman Mike Green.
Sources tell TSN it’s a four year deal with an average annual salary of $5.25 million.

Despite the cries of some GMs in training voicing their opinion on Huet and the Caps, in fact, aren’t that far apart, I’m told. But, as you know, a deal isn’t a deal until it’s signed. If one is struck, look for it to be three-years, as previously reported, in the neighborhood of $5 million per. That’s a lot of money, but the Caps are comfortable with Huet and vice versa.TSN’s comments sections, Green’s contract is a good one for the Capitals: it’s less than ten percent of the new salary cap and more than a fair price given this statistic pointed out by TSN in the same article:

Green, a first round pick by the Capitals in 2004, had 18 goals and 56 points in 82 games last season. The 18 goals led all NHL defencemen, making Green the youngest player to accomplish that feat since Paul Coffey in 1981-82.

The bad: The Capitals still haven’t agree to a contract with Cristobal Huet, despite continued insistence that talks are going well:

Huet and the Caps, in fact, aren’t that far apart, I’m told. But, as you know, a deal isn’t a deal until it’s signed. If one is struck, look for it to be three-years, as previously reported, in the neighborhood of $5 million per. That’s a lot of money, but the Caps are comfortable with Huet and vice versa.

If those numbers are accurate, it’d be surprising to see Huet land anywhere other than Washington. A three-year deal is perfect for the team and Huet is certainly worth five million a year.

Lastly, the sad news:

…the latest on Brian Pothier is neither particularly encouraging (from a hockey standpoint) nor surprising: “Running, weights and skating are a long way off for now, but Pothier is excited that his mind is strong and his body is, albeit slowly, following.”

And while that’s good news in terms of his cognitive skills and whatnot, it’s nearly gut-wrenching to read that a guy who one year ago was among the best-conditioned men in the world was bed-ridden for a week not long ago because he tried to jog a couple of blocks.

Trading to move up twice during the first round of the NHL Entry Draft, the Capitals selected the son of former Capital Bengt Gustafsson, Anton Gustafsson with the 21st overall pick and defenseman John Carlson with the 27th overall pick.

Anton Gustafsson - selected 21st in the first round, 21st overall
The skinny: The Capitals traded the 23rd and 54th overall picks to New Jersey for the 21st overall pick in order to be able to make this selection. Gustafsson is the son of former Capital Bengt, and like his father is a natural center. Played most of 2007-08 in Sweden for Frolunda’s under-20 team, where he had 10 goals, 13 assists, 43 penalty minutes and a plus-17 rating in 23 games. Anton played one game with the senior squad last year but didn’t register a point.
The good: Gustafsson has been described as having a mid-first round overall skill set. This selection addresses a number of needs simultaneously for the Capitals: Gustafsson provides both size and two-way play at forward, as well as depth at the center position. He has been described as a mature player both on and off the ice.
The bad: Gustafsson has had significant injury trouble, most notably with a slipped disc in his back and doesn’t have all that much experience against high-level competition. It may have been unnecessary to trade up in order to take Gustafsson.
Initial Reaction: “What?! They traded up to take him?”
More Thought-out Reaction: The only serious issue preventing Gustafsson from being a projected mid-first round pick was his health, and given the Capitals’ meticulous nature, fans should rest assured that he is, or will be able to, recover completely. If that’s the case, Gustafsson looks like he could be a very solid second line center, and being drafted by the same team his father played for could prove to be a source of motivation.
Grade: B-

John Carlson - selected 27th in the first round, 27th overall
The skinny: The Capitals traded Steve Eminger and the 84th overall pick to Philadelphia for the 27th overall pick in order to make this selection. Carlson is a big, physical, stay-at-home defenseman with the potential to be a shutdown defenseman in the NHL. He played for the Indiana Ice in the USHL this past season, where he had 12 goals, 31 assists, 72 penalty minutes and a plus-11 rating in 59 games. He’s slated to play next season for the London Knights, Dale Hunter’s OHL team, and alumni to Patrick Kane and Sam Gagner.
The good: TSN compared Carlson to Mike Komisarek in their draft preview and he has the potential to be that kind of player: a mean, physical defender who can go against the NHL’s best forwards. Going to London helps to assure he will be well coached and develop at a steady pace. In trading Eminger as part of the package to get this pick, George McPhee got a very good return on a player who had fallen out of the Capitals’ long-term plans.
The bad: According to TSN’s Bob McKenzie, Carlson needs to work on his conditioning. Playing in the USHL means he has yet to have significant experience against elite competition.
Initial Reaction: High-fives and jumping around the room.
More Thought-out Reaction: High-fives and jumping around the room. Carlson is exactly the type of player the Capitals need on their blue line (and who I wanted them to take with the 21st overall pick) and although the team has Joe Finley and Viktor Dovgan in the system, each is far from a sure thing.
Grade: A

With the NHL Draft set to begin in less than 48 hours, Caps Blue Line has prepared a cliff notes version of what Capitals fans need to know. In addition to being availble to read on this website, this primer is also available in the following formats (right-click and choose “save link as” or “save target as”):

Microsoft Word 97-2003
Microsoft Word 2007
Adobe PDF

I. Capitals 2008 Draft Picks
(1) Round 1, Pick 23, 23rd overall
(2) Round 2, Pick 24, 54th overall
(3) Round 2, Pick 27, 57th overall
(4) Round 2, Pick 28, 58th overall
(5) Round 3, Pick 23, 84th overall
(6) Round 4, Pick 2, 93rd overall
(7) Round 5, Pick 23, 144th overall
(8) Round 6, Pick 23, 174th overall
(9) Round 7, Pick 23, 204th overall

II. Draft Strategy
The Capitals are sittin’ pretty heading into this draft, coming of a playoff berth, holding four of the draft’s first 58 picks and one boasting of the league’s best group of prospects to boot. While it might be tempting for the Caps to package some combination of the 23rd, 54th, 57th and 58th pick together for a high first rounder, it’s more likely that the Capitals will hold on to their picks and take advantage of their scouting staff and one of the deeper drafts in recent memory. Given the club’s past drafts, its overall prospect depth and the lack of any particular pressing need, it’s likely the Capitals will be content to draft the best overall player. With apologies to anyone who was hoping for fireworks out of the Caps, they’re unlikely to make any significant trades and any player chosen will probably have to wait until at least 2010 or 2011 to wear a Capitals uniform.

III. Capitals Top Prospects
These are the Capitals’ top prospects, regardless of position. After their names you will find their position, age, and the team with which they spent most of last season.

(1) Karl Alzner – Defense, 19, Calgary Hitmen, WHL
(2) Semen Varlamov – Goalie, 20, Lokomotiv Yaroslavl, Russia
(3) Chris Bourque – Left Wing/Right Wing, 22, Hershey Bears, AHL
(4) Sami Lepisto – Defense, 23, Hershey Bears, AHL
(5) Josh Godfrey – Defense, 20, Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds, OHL
(6) Francois Bouchard – Right Wing, 20, Baie-Comeau Drakkar, QMJHL
(7) Mathieu Perreault – Center, 20, Acadie-Bathurst Titan, QMJHL
(8) Michal Neuvirth, Goalie, 20, Oshawa Generals, OHL
(9) Joe Finley – Defense, 21, University of North Dakota, NCAA (WCHA)
(10) Andrew Gordon – Right Wing, 23, Hershey Bears, AHL

IV. Top Prospects by Position

Left Wing
(1) Chris Bourque, 22, Hershey Bears
(2) Oskar Osala, 20, Espoo Blues, Finland
(3) Luke Lynes, 20, Brampton Battalion, OHL
(4) Andrew Glass, 18, Nobles (High School)

Center
(1) Mathieu Perreault, 20, Acadie-Bathurst Titan, QMJHL
(2) Kyle Wilson, 23, Hershey Bears, AHL
(3) Andrew Joudrey, 23, Hershey Bears, AHL
(4) Philip DeSimone, 21, University of New Hampshire, NCAA (Hockey East)
(5) Travis Morin, 23, South Carolina Stingrays, ECHL

Right Wing
(1) Francois Bouchard, 20, Baie-Comeau Drakkar, QMJHL
(2) Andrew Gordon, 23, Hershey Bears, AHL
(3) Stephen Werner, 23, Springfield Falcons, AHL
(4) Brett Leffler, 19, Regina Pats, OHL

Defense
(1) Karl Alzner, 19, Calgary Hitmen, WHL
(2) Sami Lepisto, 23, Hershey Bears, AHL
(3) Josh Godfrey, 20, Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds, OHL
(4) Joe Finley, 21, University of North Dakota, NCAA (WCHA)
(5) Sasha Pokulok, 22, Hershey Bears, AHL
(6) Viktor Dovgan, 20, CSKA Moscow, Russia
(7) Oscar Hedman, 22, MODO, Sweden
(8) Andrew Thomas, 22, University of Denver, NCAA (WCHA)
(9) Patrick McNeill, 21, Hershey Bears, AHL

Goalies
(1) Semen Varlamov, 20, Lokomotiv Yaroslavl, Russia
(2) Michal Neuvirth, 20, Oshawa Generals, OHL
(3) Daren Machesney, 21, Hershey Bears, AHL
(4) Dan Dunn, 20 on draft day, St. Cloud State, NCAA (WCHA)

V. Organization Strengths
(1) Goaltending. Varlamov projects to be a good number one NHL goaltender at this point and both Neuvirth and Machesney look like they have the potential to be significant contributors at the NHL level. Not very many NHL teams can boast three legitimate NHL prospects at the goaltending position, let alone two who look like they are very likely to become starters.
(2) Defense. Amazingly the Capitals top six defensive prospects could one day be NHL regulars. Not only that, but the origination boasts blueliner prospects to fill just about any role: Alzner and Pokulok project to be good two-way players, Godfrey and Lepisto are more offense oriented and Finely and Dovgan are physical, stay-at-home types.

VI. Organization Weaknesses
(1) Left Wing. Only Chris Bourque, who actually played on the right side in his brief stint in Washington in 2007, projects to be a solid NHL player from this bunch. Fortunately for the Capitals, with Alexander Semin and Alex Ovechkin manning the left side, they can afford to be thin at the pipeline for this position.
(2) Two-way Forwards. Bourque, Gordon and Wilson all look like they could contribute as defense-first depth players while Perrault and Bouchard are both offense players who lack grit, size and defensive aptitude. Thus while the Capitals have a decent number of solid forward prospects, they don’t have anyone who’s likely to significantly help them at both ends of the ice.

VII. Names to Know

Steve Stamkos – The consensus number one overall represents a win-win situation for the Tampa Bay Lightning, who were able to unload Brad Richards’ huge contract and will be able to keep a modified version of “The Big Three” intact once Stamkos is under contract.

Nikita Filatov – There are those who think Filatov is the second-best player in this draft in terms of overall skill. However, the crop of talented defensemen and questions about Filatov’s size (he’s generously listed at 5’11’’, 171) means he might just fall into the lap of a team picking sixth or lower.

Drew Doughty – Generally regarded as the best of the “Big Three” (or “Big Four”) defensemen in this year’s draft, Doughty is both offensively adept and defensively sound. He should go either number two to Los Angeles or number three to Atlanta.

Zach Bogosian – The second of the “Big Three/Four”, Bogosian also projects as a two-way defenseman, though he’s not supposed to have the same kind of skating or puckhandling skill that Doughty does. Bogosian’s most likely destination is Atlanta, who hold the number three overall pick.

Luke Schenn – Schenn has less offensive upside than either Bogosian or Doughty and is more of a physical, stay-at-home type. Schenn is supposed to be a very good puck mover however, so although he might not have the offensive talents of a true number one defenseman, he should be able to more than hold his own.

Alex Pietrangelo – He doesn’t have the offensive upside of Doughty or Bogosian or the shutdown ability of Schenn, but Pietrangelo is a big body who projects to do well at both end of the ice at the NHL level.

Kyle Beach – Beach is one of this draft’s more intriguing stories. A center at the junior level, Beach projects more as a wing as a professional. Though he owns first-round talent, Beach has a reputation for being unable to control his temper on the ice and for being hard-headed and difficult to coach off it. With good cost-controlled players being such an asset under the salary cap, it wouldn’t be surprising for a number of teams to pass over a player with as many question marks as Beach. It is also fairly likely that he’ll be selected 12th overall, by Anaheim, who would love his combination of grit and skill.

David Toews – The younger brother of Calder finalist Jonathon is the 27th ranked skater in this draft. Like his brother Toews has been praised for his intelligence, maturity and two-way play. He’s just the kind of player New Jersey likes, and the last time the Devils went off the board a bit to select a forward in the first round (Zach Parise), it worked out pretty well for them.

Michael Del Zotto – Praised by the Hockey News as the Best Offensive Defenseman available in this draft, Del Zotto is expected to go mid-late first round and some mock drafts have the Capitals selecting him with the 23rd overall pick.

Anton Gustafsson – The son of former Capital Bengt Gustafsson has a lot of potential but hasn’t player many games against top competition and faces injury concerns. Projected to go late in the first round, he’s another player the Caps could potentially take at number 23.

Adam Comrie – Comrie is Canadian born but spent most of his youth in Arlington (home of Kettler Capitals IcePlex) and played for teams in Ashburn and Reston. Ranked 44th overall for this draft, Comrie, a defenseman, says of his game, “I think my best attributes are my physical sense of the game, my grit, my shot, my work ethic, my determination, passion and heart. I’ve been captain of two teams.”

Kirill Petrov – Petrov is ranked second among European skaters by the NHL Central Scouting Service, but he has three more years on his contract with Kazan of the Russian Super League. There’s no doubt someone will take a chance on drafting Petrov, but with the lack of a transfer agreement between the NHL and the RSL and the exclusive rights window expiration date set a year before Petrov’s RSL contract is up it will be interesting to see which team chooses to take a chance on Petrov, and when.

Tony Oaks – The Hockey News says Oaks is the best fighter in this year’s draft, which is enough to make me curious as to who will draft him.

Coverage of the NHL Draft starts Friday, June 20th at 7:00 PM on Versus in the United States and on TSN in Canada.

Well, after hours of sifting through statistics, scouting reports and my own memories, what I consider to be the prototypical team has been built, bit by bit. The final results:

Rick Nash/Henrik Zetterberg/Jarome Iginla
Chris Higgins/Chris Drury/Antoine Vermette
Taylor Pyatt/John Madden/Mike Grier
Derek Boogaard/Steve Ott/Aaron Asham

Dion Phanuef/Chris Phillips
Christoph Schubert/John-Michael Liles
Mike Komisarek/Anton Volchenkov

Roberto Luongo
Johan Hedberg

Number One Goalie: Roberto Luongo (Vancouver Canucks)

If you were to build an NHL goaltender from scratch, odds are he would very closely resemble Roberto Luongo: big, quick, technically sound and smart, with the ability to log heavy minutes and steal games for his team. Luongo isn’t perfect – he doesn’t handle the puck all that well and struggled down the stretch for the Canucks this season, a part of the reason they wound up missing the playoffs. Despite that, Luongo is still NHL netminder who most resembles the perfect goalie.

Others considered: Martin Brodeur, Miika Kiprusoff, Kari Lehtonen, Marc-Andre Fleury, Rick DiPietro, Ryan Miller, Evgeni Nabokov

Backup Goalie: Johan Hedberg (Atlanta Thrashers)

There are plenty of guys in professional hockey who could do an adequate job filling in for a starting goalie in a pinch, and there are plenty of guys who are happy to fill the role of reserve netminder and are willing to work towards the team’s success, no matter what their role in it. What is rare is to find these two qualities in the same player. Hedberg is such a player, filling in well for the oft-injured Kari Lehtonen, but willing to give up the spotlight once the team’s number one was ready to go.

Shutdown Defenseman #1: Mike Komisarek (Montreal Canadiens)

Statistically Komisarek led all defensemen in hits and blocked shots in 2007-08 and was tied for 12th in takeaways. Anecdotally, Komisarek was one of the few defensemen who could line up across from Alexander Ovechkin this past season and not look completely overmatched. He’ll never put up too many points, but any coach should feel comfortable matching Komisarek against his opposition’s top players or lines.

Shutdown Defenseman #2: Anton Volchenkov (Ottawa Senators)

Volchenkov is similar to Komisarek in many ways: he’s a big player, he has a heavy shot, he loves to hit and he’s one of the NHL’s best when it comes to blocking shots. What puts Volchenkov behind Komisarek is his tendency to get caught out of position going for a big hit and his overall lack of ability when handling or moving the puck.

Others considered: Hal Gill, Robyn Regehr, Jason Smith, Scott Hannan, Barret Jackman, Greg Zanon, Brendan Witt

Somewhat analogous to the second line of forwards, the second defensive pairing should consist of players who will provide solid minutes of generally mistake-free hockey and occasionally chip in on offense. Like second liners, the third and fourth defensemen also bring more value if they can contribute in specific areas, especially penalty killing or on the powerplay.

Second Pairing Defenseman #1: Christoph Schubert (Ottawa Senators)

The German-born Shubert more than pulls his weight defensively and has enough offensive skill that he’s filled in at forward at times for the Senators. Though he doesn’t own top-end offensive talent, even for a defenseman, Schubert is a good enough puck-mover and has enough offensive awareness to man the point on the second powerplay unit and although he’s overmatched against the league’s best forwards, Schubert handles himself quite well in his own end most of the time and was seventh in the league in hits this past season.

Second Pairing Defenseman #2: John-Michael Liles (Colorado Avalanche)

Lilies is a very solid skater with good offensive instincts and ability to quarterback any powerplay. In his own end, Liles has the agility, speed and defensive awareness to match up with most of the league’s better forwards. However his smallish frame (he’s listed at 5’10’’, 185) means he can have a tough time against bigger opposing forwards. Though Liles does have enough overall ability to play in any situation, he’s best utilized by having him play a moderate number of even strength minutes and then deploying him on the powerplay, where he’s most effective.

Others considered: Niklas Kronwall, Andrej Meszaros, Rostislav Klesla

Franchise Defenseman: Dion Phaneuf (Calgary Flames)

If ever the distinction between “best” and “prototypical” is needed, it’s here. Phaneuf isn’t the best defenseman in the league – that’s an honor that clearly goes to Nicklas Lidstrom. But a big body who’s not afraid of making contact, is one of the best hitters in the league, has a bomb of a shot from the point and plays top-tier defense is what most hockey fans think of when they think of number one defenseman.

Other considered: Nicklas Lidstrom, Chris Pronger, Scott Niedermayer, Jay Bouwmeester

Number Two Defenseman: Chris Phillips (Ottawa Senators)

Like second line forwards there’s not a lot that is set in stone when it comes to discussing number two defensemen, a role that can be filled by a good all-around around player who doesn’t quite have enough skill to be a number one, a stay-at-home defenseman who moves the puck well, or a powerplay quarterback. Since I’m doing this by pairing I thus turned my focus to blueliners who could play a defensive role well enough to let their partner get in to the offensive player, but who have enough offensive talent to contribute on occasion. Phillips is such a player, fast enough to match up with the league’s better forwards, a solid hitter and an excellent shot blocker who also has enough offensive awareness to chip in. Though not a great playmaker, Phillips does have a hard shot and, just as importantly, a very good sense of when to jump into the play.

Others considered: Braydon Coburn, Brendan Witt