Caps Blue Line » Kolzig O.

5/9, 4:05 PM - Kolzig says he’s played his last game for the Caps

The news is making the rounds pretty quickly in the Capitals’ blogosphere, but for anyone who hasn’t seen it, Tarik El-Bashir of the Washington Post is reporting that Olaf Kolzig will not be returning to the Capitals:

Olie Kolzig, the Washington Capitals goaltender through some of the best and worst moments in the team’s history, confirmed yesterday what had been suspected for weeks: He has played his final game for the franchise that drafted him in 1989.

I don’t think there’s all that much I can add about what Kolzig has meant to the Capitals both on the ice, where he backstopped the team the 1998 Stanly Cup Finals and won a Vezina in 2000, and off the ice, where he was the face of the organization for more than a dozen years, an active member of the Washington area community and the NHL’s 2006 recipient of the King Clancy Memorial Trophy, awarded “to the National Hockey League player who best exemplifies leadership qualities on and off the ice and who has made a significant humanitarian contribution in his community”. I do want to make two notes in the wake of this article.

The first is that Kolzig is most likely headed for retirement. The odds of anyone wanting to hand Kolzig their starting netminder job are slim; the odds that Kolzig would be willing to fight for the number one role, or serve as a backup on a team other than the Capitals are even smaller. As a Capitals fan who grew up playing goalie, it’d be hard for me to see Kolzig toiling for another club, but as someone who admires Kolzig as a player and a person it’d be even more difficult to see him forced out of the league before he’s ready. Hopefully Olie is given the chance to do what he wants to this winter.

The writing was on the wall with regards to Kolzig’s future as a Capital, so that he won’t be bad isn’t particularly surprising. What is surprising is the fact Kolzig seems poised to move out of the D.C. area, as his house is already up for sale. Like many Capitals fans, I had hoped Kolzig would remain a part of the Capitals organization after his playing days were over in a public relations, coaching or other front office role. Kolzig already has a front office role though, as owner of the WHL’s Tri-City Americans, whom he helped coach during the NHL and lockout and had spoken of returning to when his playing days were over. Perhaps a return to Kennewick, Washington is in the cards for Olie if he doesn’t get an NHL offer he likes. It would be nice if Kolzig would at least consider returning to the Capitals in a non-playing capacity. At this point, it’s hard to imagine hockey in Washington without him.

4/23, 3:41 PM - Season end roundup

Even though they have been eliminated, there’s still a decent among of news coming out of the Capitals’ camp today:

  • Nicklas Backstrom was announced as one of the finalists for the Calder Trophy today. Not surprisingly, the other finalists were Chicago rookies Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews. Each has a knock on them: the two Blackhawks have the potential to cancel one another out and Backstrom suffers from the “anyone would have a good year playing with Ovechkin” attitude. I personally think Backstrom deserves the trophy because he has the best all-around game at this point. Kane is an offensive force, but is unpolished on defense and Toews is a very good defender and physical player, but he doesn’t have the offensive skill to make the kids of plays Kane and Backstrom can.
  • Olaf Kolzig has taken his nameplate off his locker and skipped a mandatory team meeting. To me, this suggest Kolzig doesn’t consider himself a part of the team any longer. Guess it’s time to open those contract negotiations with Cristobal Huet and try and get him signed before the Capitals end up taking a chance on Ray Emery.
  • The defense situation is starting to get complicated: Brian Pothier’s career may be finished and Steve Eminger is expected to get a qualifying offer. Hopefully Pothier does what’s best for himself and his family in the long term, even if it isn’t the best for his NHL career. As for Eminger, the Caps should bring him back. He’s better than John Erskine and is more consistent and has more offensive upside than Milan Jurcina. A defense corps of Mike Green, Tom Poti, Shaone Morrisonn, Steve Eminger and some combination of Jurcina, Karl Alzner and Sami Lepisto sounds pretty good to me (especially if the Capitals adress their need for a physical defense-first defenseman as well).
  • The covert operations have ended for this season and the Caps have subsequently let the cat out of the bag on injuries. Per Tarik El-Bashir: “Boudreau said that defenseman Shaone Morrisonn played the past two weeks with broken jaw, which made it tough for him to eat. He also said Mike Green was hampered with hip pointer (suffered in Game 6) and a foot injury last game, and that Boyd Gordon had a torn hamstring in the playoffs. Boudreau also said Ovechkin was suffering from a nagging injury, which is why he didn’t practice for the last month of the regular season.”

Lastly, for now, I’ll leave you with this quote from Matt Bradley, which sums up how most Capitals fans are probably feeling today:

“It’s going to take a while for this to sink in. What we did this season was good, I guess, but we still could have gone a lot further in this.”

3/2, 8:12 PM - The Kolzig/Huet issue shoudn’t be one

I’ve tried to avoid the Capitals’ current hot-button issue, simply because I don’t think it is one. To me, there shouldn’t be ambiguity about the roles of Olaf Kolzig and Cristobal Huet one the Caps. Consider these facts:

(1) Huet is tied for the best save percentage since the lockout and is 9th in the NHL in save percentage this season.
(2) Kolzig is tied for last (44th) in the league in save percentage this season.
(3) When he was being played heavily in December and January Kolzig had a save percentage of about .860
. Once he started playing less frequently he played better, posting a .922 save percentage in February.
(4) Kolzig won a Veniza in D.C., led the team to the Stanley Cup finals, stayed with the team through their rebuild and has been great in the community his entire tenure with the Capitals.

To me what those first two facts mean are that Cristobal Huet certainly seems to be the better of the two goalies right now and should get the nod as the number one goaltender. If Huet’s struggles and/or Kolzig starts playing lights out, fine, that is a situation the coaching staff can deal with at that time. But right now the season is three-quarters of the way done and each goaltender has had enough playing time that a decision can be made about who the number one is going to be.

What I don’t understand is the animosity some Capitals fans have towards Kolzig, wanting him demoted to the bench (or AHL), using him as the go-to scapegoat for losses (presumably because it’s now impossible to blame Jaromir Jagr or Glen Hanlon and blaming George McPhee is looking dumber every day), and forgetting all he’s done for the franchise. Not surprisingly this has created a backlash, with other fans insisting that Kolzig is the victim of bad luck, bad coaching, or bad defense and that he deserves to stay the starter now and into the future.

In my opinion, Capitals fans are letting their passion take control of their heads which isn’t necessarily a bad thing; after all every team wants die-hard fans. But to see the situation with being blinded by frustrations that Caps fans have had with Kolzig this season or their memories or Kolzig in better days it might be best to consider the case of a franchise player with another organization.

Take Steve Yzerman as an example. Like Kolzig, Yzerman was a first round draft pick who would become the face of his franchise during it’s most successful times and like Kolzig, and every other professional athlete, Yzerman saw his skills diminish with time. As an outsider looking in once Yzerman reached his 22nd NHL season, one where he would eventually post full-season career lows of 14 goals, 20 asssits and 34 points in 61 games, it would seem ridiculous for Red Wings fans to claim because of Yzerman’s diminished skills he should be benched or sent to the minor leagues and it would be equally ridiculous for them to claim that because of his past successes Yzerman should still be allowed to be the first line center and lead the team’s top powerplay unit. Yet this is in essence what many Capitals fans are doing with Kolzg, when what would be best would be for the organization to approach the situation the way the Red Wings handled Yzerman: acknowledge both what the player has done for the organization over the years and their diminishing skill set, and find a way to use the player in a productive role until they are ready to hang up the skates and join the front office.

All photos AP/Getty by way of Yahoo!

3/2, 3:54 PM - The Blame Game

Capitals 2, Maple Leafs 3

It’s nice to beat the best team in the Conference in their own building, but it’s hard to feel too good or build too much momentum when you come back and lose to the 12th ranked ream in your own building.

Capitals fans are of course keenly aware of this and the wake has led to a lot of scapegoating. Here’s who’s being blamed:

Olaf Kolzig. Who knew Capitals fans were of such a “what have you done for me lately” variety? Kolzig has become the number one scapegoat for the team this season and while I think that he certainly has not played all that well he deserves better than what some fans want, including one who wanted him sent to the AHL in order to “make a statement” (note: for Kolzig to be sent to the AHL he would have to clear waivers, which is unlikely to happen. Kolzig, a class act for many, many years would likely be lost on waivers to essentially punish him for being human and having his skills decline with age and would simply be a classless act, and a P.R. disaster, for the organization). The numbers suggest Kolzig can’t play every night at his age - he put up save percentages of .860 or so in December and January when Bruce Boudreau was riding him heavily but had a .922 save percentage in February once Brent Johnson started to see more playing time. Kolzig is fine as a backup. As for last night - he wasn’t exactly a sieve but the Mats Sundin goal should have been stopped - a shot with no traffic and from that angle always should be.

Bruce Boudreau. I’ve seen more than one person suggest Boudreau should have started Cristobal Huet last night rather than Kolzig. That criticism has some merit, but given how Olie had been playing of late and the fact that the Caps were playing on back-to-back days, in different cities, it was not unreasonable to play Kolzig last night.

George McPhee. Huh? Yeah, doesn’t make enough sense, but I’ve seen people doing it, faulting McPhee for letting Kolzig play (not his decision), picking up Fedorov (who was fine) and failing to pick up a better defenseman at the trade deadline. I have to this: anyone who thinks McPhee is doing a poor job either (1) is taking their cues on the difficult of being a GM from a video game (2) is looking for reasons to be grumpy and be upset at McPhee because they’ve been scapegoating him for so long and/or (3) has no appreciation for how difficult it is to be a general manager in the NHL. I’m sure there are constructive arguments that can be made criticism McPhee’s ability as a GM…but I haven’t heard any yet.

Ted Leonsis. Another head-scratcher to me, but there are people faulting him for the fact that Olie got the start…because we all know it’d be better to have an over-involved Dan Snyder or Peter Angelos type owner, right?

Tomas Fleischmann and Alexander Semin both missed good chances last night.

Team Effort. This seem to be the go-to excuse any time a team loses a hockey game, but the fact that it’s the once Boudreau cited makes it carry a little more weight in my mind. Still, although I think the Capitals effort could have been better for portions of the second period, yet I don’t think it cost them the game.

The Powerplay. The Caps were 0-5 with the man advantage and it seemed like the Leafs actually gained momentum by taking penalties and killing them off.

That there are many suggested causes (scapegoats?) for this loss leads me to think it was a case of “just not enough”. The Capitals offense just couldn’t quite convert on their chances, the defense just couldn’t quite bottle the Leafs attack and Olaf Kolzig wasn’t quite good enough to pick up his teammates. No one was terrible, but a lot of guys were mediocre and when no one steps up and carries the team on their shoulders, that’s just not enough to win.

2/23, 9:44 PM - Caps fall to ‘Canes, 6-3

Capitals 3, Hurricanes 6

In a game players, coaches, fans and media agreed was the most important of the season to this point, the Capitals came out looking sharp and aggressive and controlled play for the first ten minutes of the game…but ultimately succumbed to bad luck and bad individual efforts. And no, the Caps didn’t lose because of any bad sports clichés that are sure to be thrown around in the wake of this game, phrases like “they don’t know how to win”, “they’re too inexperienced” or “they didn’t have the effort”.

The bad luck part is pretty self-explanatory: each of the Hurricanes first two goals came on the powerplay, with a Capitals player (David Steckel and then Milan Jurcina) without a stick. Without those bad breaks (no pun intended) and several very nice saves by Cam Ward, the Capitals could have easily been ahead three or four to nothing halfway through the third, instead of trailing 3-2.

There are two players whose efforts were poor enough to be significant contributions to the loss. One was Olaf “this is the biggest game of the season” Kolzig, who may be the victim of comparisons more than anything else. The two most obvious players Kolzig could be compared with are Alexander Ovechkin and Cam Ward and in neither case does he come out looking very good. Comparing Kolzig (the face of the franchise for more than ten years) with Ovechkin (the face of the franchise for the next thirteen at least) comes somewhat naturally in general. But the comparison was even more obvious this week. Leading into this game both Ovechkin and Kolzig addressed the game’s importance and recently each has addressed their own personal underperformance (the difference of course being that Ovechkin’s lasted about a week while Kolzig’s has gone on for several months), yet the responses of the players could not have been more different. Ovechkin was a dominant force, picking up assists on each of the Capitals’ goals and registering eight shots of his own, while also racking up five hits. Kolzig stopped 85.7% of the shots that came his way and had terrible rebound control all game. Kolzig’s average performance was also highlighted by the play of Cam Ward in the Hurricanes net. Unlike Kolzig, Ward made a number of difficult, crucial saves to keep his team in the game. If the team’s had switched goaltenders last night, not only would the Hurricanes have not won the game - it wouldn’t even have been close. All that said, though, Kolzig wasn’t very good, but he also wasn’t as bad as his numbers.

The more pressing concern in my mind was the continued poor play of John Erskine, who was directly responsible for two of the Capitals’ goals against, one when he failed to clear the puck in front of the net and one when he let Andrew Ladd get enough space and time that he was able to knock the puck past a prone Kolzig. That kind of play isn’t acceptable out of any defenseman; it’s especially not acceptable out of a 6′4”, 218 pound defenseman who’s a poor skater and has no offensive upside. What’s worse is that this can’t be chalked up to a bad game - opponents have consistently been getting time and space in front of the net and creating scoring chances when Erskine is on the ice. Honestly, I don’t know how he’s still getting a sweater.

The bad news is the Capitals are now six points out of the division lead. The good news is that (1) they still hold three games in hand on Carolina and (2) the team is one solid defensive defenseman and possibly a goaltending upgrade from being one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference, so even if the playoffs aren’t in the cards in 2008, they should be in 2009.

All photos AP/Getty by way of Yahoo!

2/17, 2:40 AM - Caps top Lightning, 3-2

Capitals 3, Lightning 2

After losing in Florida and falling to Atlanta in a shootout, the Capitals were desperate to pull out a win in Tampa Bay to finish their swing through the Southeast and they were able to do so behind a resilient team effort and a rock-solid Olie Kolzig. Since there are a number of important issues to touch on from this game, so I’ve given each its own mini-section.

Olaf Kolzig. Clearly the game’s best player (and the difference between a win and a loss) with 39 saves on 41 shots (.951 save %), Kolzig played like he did when he was an all-star and a Vezina Trophy winner. Since going to the more-or-less 60/split in playing time with Brent Johnson, Kolzig’s play has vastly improved. It’s nice as a Caps fan to see that Olie still has some very good minutes left in him….even if there aren’t quite as many as we may have hoped.

Sami Lepisto’s NHL debut. He didn’t exactly set the world on fire in his first NHL game, but the 23-year-old Finn registered a shot, a hit, a blocked shot and some powerplay time. What struck me the most about Lepisto were his poise and calmness with the puck and his skating ability - attributes the Capitals are in dire need of along the blue line right now. Jeff Schultz, John Erskine and Milan Jurcina are all big bodies but they’re also all mediocre skaters and both Erskine and Jurcina are butchers with the puck. The Capitals defense is more balanced, and probably better overall, with Lepisto or Eminger in the lineup every night until Brian Pothier and/or Tom Poti return. Which brings me to…

John Erskine. Okay, I don’t have any objective analysis to prove anything but it seems to me that there is a very high correlation between the Capitals opponents’ getting quality scoring chances and Erskine being on the ice, which seemed to especially be true during last night’s game. I like Erskine’s attitude and style of play, but he is such a poor skater and is so bad with the puck that he is a liability against most NHL caliber forwards. While I think he’s an okay depth guy, I don’t think Erskine should be getting playing time ahead of any of the Capitals other current defensemen.

Secondary scoring. The Capitals scored three goals, which isn’t an offensive explosion by any means. But the fact that they potted three from players not named Alexander Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Viktor Kozlov or Mike Green was nice. It’s even better that Alexander Semin and Tomas Fleischmann each seem to be finding a groove offensively.

Horrible television announcers. I think that fans of teams in Southern locales are too often unfairly dismissed as ignorant about the game of hockey, but if there is any truth to this stereotype I’m pretty sure it’s a result of the guys doing the games on TV in these markets. In the past I’ve detailed the follies of the Atlanta Thrashers’ announcers and in the Capitals game on the other night against Florida the Panthers commentators were not too impressive either. But I think Bobby “The Chief” Taylor takes the cake with his comment during last night’s game. With about two minutes left their was a brief scrum that start in front of the Capitals net. Taylor blamed this on David Steckel, saying “What is that? I never understood that. If you’re going to fight, then fight, but if you’re not then just turn around and skate away. What is that? That’s a bunch of crap!” There are a lot of thing wrong with that assessment including (1) if you don’t know why that happens, you really probably don’t know much about hockey and (2) Steckel gave a pretty innocent little push on a Tampa player’s arm and the Tampa player then cross-checked him. But really that’s irrelevant. What really matters is that Taylor demonstrated a complete lack of maturity and professionalism and if the person who is supposed to provide insightful commentary on hockey is pouting like a twelve-year-old fan of the team, it’s no wonder that Southern hockey fans aren’t schooled in the game’s finer points.

DMG’s 3 Stars
(1) Olaf Kolzig - 39 saves on 41 shots (95.1 save %) and clearly the best player on either team
(2) Alexander Semin - 1 goal (game winner), 1 assists, +1, 6 shots,
(3) Tomas Fleischmann - 1 goal

Quotable

“He didn’t seemed fazed at all. He was making great plays and he played within himself.”

-Bruce Boudreau on Sami Lepisto

“Kolzig gets credit the whole game. He’s the difference.”

-Lightning coach John Tortorella

Quick Hits

  • Another rough night on the faceoff dot for Viktor Kozlov - he won just two of nine draws.
  • Someone should just tell Dave Steckel to imagine Lightning uniforms on every opponent. Steckel now has five NHL goals, four of which have come against Tampa Bay.
  • On the official scoresheet the Capitals were outhit 27-19
  • How nice was it to see how excited Semin was after his goal?

Around the (Inter)net
A New York Times intensive version today: the seven best trades the NYT could come up with and why the Southeast’s big time scorers aren’t on winning teams…now that he’s been fired, everyone cares what John Ferguson Jr. thinks of the Leafs…Celebrating the Top 10 U.S.-Born Fighters

All photos AP/Getty by way of Yahoo!

Fun with Numbers!

From last night’s game:

Shots against/saves
Olaf Kolzig: 15/10
Danny Sabourin: 13/9
Ty Conklin: 17/16

Shots, by team
Washington: 30
Pittsburgh: 15

Goals, by team
Washington: 5
Pittsburgh: 5

Saves in overtime:
Olaf Kolzig: 1
Quintin Laing: 3

Capitals Goaltending By the Numbers

I’ve put together this table comparing the league’s goaltending statistics with the Capitals’ netminders. There are currently 44 goaltenders who have played enough to qualify for the league lead in statistics. As Olaf Kozlig is one of them, the number in parentheses next to his statistics is his league rank; since Brent Johnson is not among the 44 qualified goalies the number in parentheses is what his rank would be if he has enough minutes to qualify.

League median is derived by calculating the mean of the 22nd and 23rd ranked goalies.

Goals Against Average

Save Percentage

Shootout Save %

Olaf Kolzig

3.04 (39)

.888 (42)

50.0 (t-25)

Brent Johnson

2.85 (31)

.900 (t-33)

n/a

League Median

2.69

.907

58.55

League Leader

1.82

.930

100

Capitals Players Looking to Turn a Corner Heading into the New Year

Resolutions, promises, a fresh start: What better time than New Year’s Eve to take a look at some of the players on the Capitals who look like they’re going to (and need to) turn a corner in the very near future?

Without further ado, here are a half-dozen Caps players who will be looking to elevate their game start January 1st against the Senators:

Expand/Collapse this Post

Tomas Fleischmann - Flash has nothing left to prove at the AHL level, where he’s scored 114 points in 102 games since 2005, but he hasn’t been able to consistently contribute offensively in Washington. I think Flash stands a pretty good chance at getting on the scoresheet on a regular basis now that he’s becoming aware that he is not skilled enough to get by on skill alone and has hence started working harder without the puck and driving to the net. I’m still not completely sold on Fleischmann though and time is starting to run out for him, although you’d have to think that if he’s ever going to show he can play at the NHL level it would be under another relatively slight winger who showed a ton of skill in the minors but couldn’t stick in the NHL.

Viktor Kozlov - Kozlov hasn’t been as bad as some Caps fans seem to think (a number of people have recently advocated his benching in the comments on Capitals Insider). He’s second on the team in assists and shots and is getting his chances - he just needs to start converting them. And he will.

Olaf Kolzig - After allowing six goals on 22 shots against Ottawa (despite not playing all that poorly) Kolzig’s save percentage is down to .888 and his GAA up to 3.02. His numbers haven’t been stellar and he’s let in a number of soft goals, but he has been playing better recently, even if the numbers don’t show it. With Johnson out 2-4 weeks and with the team playing well and gaining ground in the playoff race the Capitals need Kolzig to be a solid presence in net.

Matt Pettinger - In a season that has been disappointing thus far for Capitals fans perhaps no single player has been as disappointing as Pettinger, who has only five points in 37 games and was a healthy scratch against Ottawa. But the numbers look worse than Pettinger’s play has been - while Pettinger has only two goals he is getting his chances and his shots per game average (1.86) is about the same as what it’s been the last couple years (1.81), and you don’t go from being a guy who shoots better than 14% to a guy who shoots under 3% without some bad luck in there. Although Pettinger has only three assists he has played much of the year with Boyd Gordon and David Steckel, neither of whom is finding the net on a regular basis. At this point I think Pettinger’s problem is largely mental - he looked like he was on his game early in the year and I think the lack of success he’s had playing his game started to get to him, he started to doubt himself, got off his game and has looked a little lost. Hopefully sitting out a game or two helps him get his head back together and boosts his on-ice performance.

Jeff Schultz - Schultz is a defensive defenseman, so unlike Kolzig or Kozlov it might not be as obvious when he turns a corner and is able to elevate his game. Rather than flashy goals or saves, Schultz is at his best when he plays positionally, frustrates opponents and avoids mistakes. Not especially jaw-dropping stuff, but it’s an important role nonetheless. Sarge has been looking smarter and more comfortable almost by the game and is close to becoming a very solid backline presence. Schultz has also taken some heat for not being physical enough given his size (6′5”, 215) and the nature of his game. I don’t think it’s that Schultz won’t initiate contact, I think it’s that he doesn’t want to draw himself out of position trying to deliver a big hit. As he become more aware and more confident in his own end watch for his physical game to improve as well.

David Steckel - I conceived this post a couple weeks ago, but the holidays make me lazy (you know it happens to you too) and I wish that I’d written it up before before Steckel three-point performance against Tampa Bay, but here it goes anyway: Steckel has received praise from Caps management and fans for doing jobs that are all too often underappreciated (playing a defensive role, faceoffs, penalty kills) and so it’s become easy to forget that he put up 61 points (30+31) in 71 games for Hershey last year. While Steckel will never be a great scorer at the NHL level he has enough talent to chip in offensively on a consistent basis. Lately he’s looked more comfortable in the offensive end, going to the net more often, being more assertive and showing better vision, so I’d expect some points to follow.

Caps Goaltending Needs an Upgrade

It’s a fact that’s been beating down on Capitals fans for most of this season, and it was again underscored during last night’s 5-2 loss to the Montreal Canadiens: you can’t make the playoffs with a mediocre goalie. There are simply too many teams with good goaltenders for that to happen.

Let me explain. In my mind there are four classes of goaltenders in the NHL (please note the examples I use are how good the players are right now, not their career potential):

Tier I - “Dominant”

Dominant goaltenders have three distinct characteristics. One is that they have no obvious weaknesses. They are technically and positionally sound, control rebounds, play smart and are just as hard to beat up high as down low. The second is that they very rarely allow soft goals. The third characteristic is mental toughness: these netminders aren’t going to get rattled when things don’t go their way (which is going to happen sooner or later if you play in net).

Results-wise these goalies will virtually never cost their team the game and will in fact keep their team in games they have no business being in and will “steal” games for their team on a regular basis. I would estimate that there are between three and five such goalies in the NHL right now, the prototypical example being Roberto Luongo (pictured).

Tier II - “Very Good”

These goalies are generally solid and can be counted to play a good game the vast majority of the time, but are not quite at that dominant level because they aren’t top-notch is every aspect of the game. They may have only average lateral movement, five-hole coverage, positioning or rebound control. They may allow too many soft goals, not make enough big saves or get rattled too easily.

Although goalies in this second tier are not dominant night in and night out they are difficult to beat and it usually takes a nice play, a rebound, a screen or sustained pressure to get one by them. While they won’t steal games for their teams on a frequent basis it’s not exactly a rare occurrence either. Although you could technically do better as a coach or general manager, any solid team should have success with a goalie of this caliber. Ryan Miller would be an example of a Tier II goalie.

Tier III - “Decent”

An average goalie is just that - average. They probably don’t excel at any particular aspect and the areas where they are above average are offset by other areas where they are below average - or worse. Tier III goalies have clearly exploitable holes that they are unable to compensate for without making themselves even more vulnerable. Soft goals are not uncommon and if the goalie steals more than a game or two a season for his team he’s outperformed expectations. These goalies are often “tweeners” - not quite good enough to be a starter for a contending team but better than most backups. Examples would include Marc Denis and Vesa Toskala.

Tier IV - “Mediocre”

Mediocre goals will very rarely steal a game for their team, will let in soft goals on a regular basis and have easily exploitable holes visible even to casual fans. While Tier IV goalies may make passable backups any team that is starting one is going to be in trouble, no matter how skilled the rest of their lineup is. For an example think of any unspectacular career backup, such as John Grahame or Curtis Sanford.

Goaltenders are not necessarily normally distributed and these tiers are based more on how difficult a goalie is to beat than how good they are compared to other goalies in the league. I believe that the distribution of goaltending tiers is significantly different than it has been in the past. When I was younger (and playing as a goalie myself) it seemed to me there were 2-4 dominant goalies and another 5-8 very good goalies in the league at any given time and that most teams were starting decent (Tier III) goalies. Now I believe there are 3-5 dominant goalies, at least 10 more very good goalies* and as many as 30 decent goalies.

Why? Better coaching has lead to better technical ability, so fewer holes open up to shooters. Bigger equipment and bigger players at the position mean that when those holes do open up they’re smaller than ever before.

That a team needs an above average goaltender to be a serious contender and, in most cases, to get into the playoffs has not changed. What has changed is what it means to be an average goalie in the NHL. Just as major league pitchers now throw more pitches and throw harder than in the past and just as NHL skaters are bigger, faster and have harder shots than their predecessors, goalies have gotten better.

So where is Kolzig in all this? In my opinion Kolzig borders between a Tier III and Tier IV goalie at this point in his career. Kolzig is not the kind of goalie a contending team would want - he has poor lateral movement and has let in far too many soft goals this season, mostly on wraparounds and through his five-hole. But at the same time he is not a clear-cut backup.

Regardless of whether Kolzig is a Tier III or Tier IV goalie, he is well below average for the league and ranks 37th in save percentage and 35th in goals against average (GAA). This is not a new trend for Kolzig. Last season he tied for 17th in save percentage and 33rd in GAA; the year before he was 33rd and 44th. Part of that is due to the fact that the Capitals were not a very good team (to say the least), but the numbers suggest what should have been apparent to anyone watching the games: Kolzig was now a average NHL goalie at best. This season having Kolzig be average would be an improvement. With so many talented goalies in the NHL right now a team has to have a guy who is at least on the border of Tier II and Tier III to be a playoff contender, unless the rest of their team is very talented.

So can the Capitals make playoffs with Kolzig? They can, but it will be difficult. What would be ideal for a team with so many young players (including the league’s youngest defense corps) would be to have a solid netminder who’s going to steal them some games - not one they’ll have to bail out more often than he bails them out. But the Capitals are a dynamic, talented team that’s getting better every day and they may soon be able to carry a mediocre goalie and still win with regularity.

If that sounds crazy, consider this: how much better are Mike Green, Jeff Schultz and Nicklas Backstrom playing right now than they were in October? With so much young talent this could be a significantly stronger team in less than a month. If the Capitals can have their key players continue to develop quickly they stand a very good chance at being a solid enough to carry a questionable goalie. Pittsburgh made the playoffs last year, didn’t they?

Caps fans ought to hope the team can do so because General Manager George McPhee’s hands are tied at this point in terms of trying to bring in a goalie to supplant Kolzig as the starter as such a player would be difficult to acquire and the inevitable rift in the clubhouse from Kolzig being forced to accept such a demotion would likely ruin any team chemistry. It’s not that Olie isn’t a team guy, he is. But he’s also very competitive…and not very good at hiding it when he is upset.

The offseason is different story though. In fact, I think I heard Joe B. say Cristobal Huet would be a free agent after this season…

*Goalies who I think would clearly fit into either Tier I or Tier II include the ones listed below. There are several others who may or may not be in Tier II, such as Martin Gerber, Ray Emery and Carey Price.

Martin Brodeur
Ilya Bryzgalov
Rick DiPietro
Jean-Sebastien Giguere
Cristobal Huet
Miikka Kiprusoff
Pascal Leclaire
Henrik Lundqvist
Roberto Luongo
Ryan Miller
Evgeni Nabokov
Marty Turco
Tomas Vokoun