The Capitals 2008-09 schedule has been released. First up is the Thrashers on road, followed by a home opener against Cristobal Huet and the Blackhawks.
In addition to being available via the Capitals official site and NHL.com the full schedule will soon be up on the Caps Blue Line schedule page.
The Capitals’ loss of Cristobal Huet and their subsequent decision to replace him with Jose Theodore have immediately sparked intense debate amongst Caps fans, blogging community included. JP of Japers’ Rink contends that Theodore may just be the
better goaltender, as does Pepper of the Red Skate. At the other end of the spectrum is Pucks’n’books from On Frozen Blog, who is echoing the sentiments of many disappointed Capitals fans (albeit in a much more reasoned and eloquent manner).
For any Capitals fan it’s impossible to be completely at ease with this personnel change: Theodore has been one of the most notoriously inconsistent goalies in the league over the last decade and it was easy to become attached to Huet for his play during the team’s incredible finish to the season. Despite this, George McPhee and the rest of the Capitals’ front office made the right decision when they elected to bring in Theodore, for two reasons.
The first is that Huet and his agent were apparently jerking the Capitals around during the negotiation sessions:
[McPhee] said the Caps started at the 3 years/$3.7 million and Huet’s camp started at 3 years/$5 million. McPhee said the Caps came up to $4.3 and then $4.6 and finally to $5 million per season, but Bartlett/Huet decided they wanted to test the market.
Other reports indicate that once Huet received his four-year, 22 million dollar contract offer from Chicago he and his agent came back and asked the Capitals to match, which the Capitals declined to do. Although the case could be made that Huet would have been worth the $5.6 million per year he’s getting from Chicago, there’s no reason to assume Huet and his agent were negotiating in good faith at the point they asked the Capitals to match. After all, Huet was given the contract he asked for, chose walk anyway, and then came back essentially asking the Capitals to engage in a bidding war with the Blackhawks. If the Capitals had matched Chicago’s offer why would it be more reasonable to assume Huet would have signed, rather than go back to Chicago’s management and asked for more? If this happens, the risk increases that Theodore signs elsewhere and leaves the Capitals no choice but to
vastly overpay for Huet or sign a second-tier free agent like Ty Conklin, Alex Auld or Ray Emery.
The second is that the signing of Theodore to replace Huet may actually make the team better. The point of personnel decisions in professional sports isn’t to get the best player or the biggest name player and it’s definitely not to fall in love with, and overpay for, a player who played well for your team during a two month stretch. Rather, it’s to maximize a somewhat abstract characteristic that could be referred to as “ability to win games at an [NHL, MLB, NFL, etc] level”, “team competitiveness at a high level” or something of the like subject to any given constraints (in the case of the Capitals for 2008-09, that would be the 56.7 million dollar salary cap).
The dollar amount, and hence cap space, the Capitals have freed up by signing Theodore rather than Huet is not insignificant. For each of the next two years, Theodore’s cap hit will be 1.1 million dollars lower than Huet’s, an amount that personnel-wise translates into a valuable depth player like Matt Bradley ($1.1 million), Donald Brashear ($1.2 million), Boyd Gordon ($650,000 in 2007-08) or Milan Jurcina ($912,000) or the majority of a cap hit for a rookie (for example, Karl Alzner’s cap number in 2008-09 will be $1.675 million). Given the Capitals’ current cap-crunch, it could be the difference between retaining Shaone Morrisonn, Brooks Laich and Sergei Fedorov and having to let one of them walk. Three and four years out, when Huet will be 36 and 37 years old, the $5.6 million in salary cap space saved by the Capitals can be used to help finance extensions for Alexander Semin and Nicklas Backstrom. Assuming the Capitals manage their assets well (and recent history suggests they will), Theodore at $4.5 million for two years is better than Huet at $5.6 million over four year both in the short term and long term.
It may very well be the case that Huet is a better player than Theodore, but Theodore is the better signing.
Per TSN:
The Washington Capitals have signed goaltender Jose Theodore to a two-year contract.
Theodore, 31, became an unrestricted free agent on July 1 after playing out a three-year, $16 million contract. The former Montreal Canadien came off a solid 2007-08 campaign, posting a 28-21-3 record and a 2.44 goals against average.
This probably means the Caps weren’t as close to terms with Cristobal Huet as it seemed. As for the on-the-ice product, Theodore is a gamble and has been nothing if not inconsistent. If playing with a young, talented team revitalizes him, this could be a good signing for the Capitals. If Theodore reverts to his 2005 or 2006 form (in which he had a save percentage well below .900) his contract becomes dead cap space.
The important thing for Capitals fans will be to reserve judgment until the terms of whatever contract Huet signs are announced. If it turns out that someone is offering Huet seven million dollars a year and that for the Capitals to match it would have meant they had to sacrifice in other areas, they will have made the right decision. However, if Huet signs a three-year, $15 million contract elsewhere, Washington hockey fans will be left scratching their heads.
In the end, the Capitals basically became the victims of a weak goaltending free agent market. Of course things could be worse: less than 15 minutes after the announcement that Theodore had signed with the Capitas, his former employer (Colorado) announced they had signed Andrew Raycroft.
The good: The Capitals have re-signed one of their key components, agreeing to a four year, 21 million dollar contract with Mike Green:
The Washington Capitals have agreed to terms with restricted free agent defenceman Mike Green.
Sources tell TSN it’s a four year deal with an average annual salary of $5.25 million.
Despite the cries of some GMs in training voicing their opinion on Huet and the Caps, in fact, aren’t that far apart, I’m told. But, as you know, a deal isn’t a deal until it’s signed. If one is struck, look for it to be three-years, as previously reported, in the neighborhood of $5 million per. That’s a lot of money, but the Caps are comfortable with Huet and vice versa.TSN’s comments sections, Green’s contract is a good one for the Capitals: it’s less than ten percent of the new salary cap and more than a fair price given this statistic pointed out by TSN in the same article:
Green, a first round pick by the Capitals in 2004, had 18 goals and 56 points in 82 games last season. The 18 goals led all NHL defencemen, making Green the youngest player to accomplish that feat since Paul Coffey in 1981-82.
The bad: The Capitals still haven’t agree to a contract with Cristobal Huet, despite continued insistence that talks are going well:
Huet and the Caps, in fact, aren’t that far apart, I’m told. But, as you know, a deal isn’t a deal until it’s signed. If one is struck, look for it to be three-years, as previously reported, in the neighborhood of $5 million per. That’s a lot of money, but the Caps are comfortable with Huet and vice versa.
If those numbers are accurate, it’d be surprising to see Huet land anywhere other than Washington. A three-year deal is perfect for the team and Huet is certainly worth five million a year.
Lastly, the sad news:
…the latest on Brian Pothier is neither particularly encouraging (from a hockey standpoint) nor surprising: “Running, weights and skating are a long way off for now, but Pothier is excited that his mind is strong and his body is, albeit slowly, following.”
And while that’s good news in terms of his cognitive skills and whatnot, it’s nearly gut-wrenching to read that a guy who one year ago was among the best-conditioned men in the world was bed-ridden for a week not long ago because he tried to jog a couple of blocks.
Coming into the final stretch the Washington Capitals are looking increasingly like a team of destiny (or an unstoppable force, for those more scientifically inclined fans) and last night’s 3-0 over a Florida Panthers team that needed a win to keep any glimmer of playoff hope alive did nothing to diminish that feeling, as the Capitals emerged victorious behind stellar performances from Viktor Kozlov and Cristobal Huet.
With their win, Washington caps a 5-1 road trip that exceed the expectations of even the most optimistic fan but still leaves the Capitals on the outside of the playoff picture looking in, one point behind Philadelphia for the eight spot in the Eastern Conference and two points behind both Boston (for seventh in the Conference) and Carolina (for first in the Southeast Division)(note: all three teams have a game in hand on the Capitals).* Who would have thought that even after picking up ten points in the six game swing the Caps would still be on the outside looking in? At least on the plus side for Caps fans, it was nice to have a game that didn’t induce any gray hairs.
On the ice the Washington Capitals number one goal is to maintain focus, play smart and do their best to pick up every single point that’s still available to them. In the front office of the Washington Capitals to number one goal should be finding a way to get newly acquired netminder Cristobal Huet under contract for next season. Speculation is that Huet would be looking for something in the range of an average salary of five million dollars for three or four years and if that’s the case he’s well worth the money. The Capitals are used to shelling out 5.45 million a year for Olaf Kolzig and although a number of players including Alexander Ovechkin, Alexander Semin, Mike Green and Brooks Laich are going to get significant raises next year, you’d have to think that Ted Leonsis and George McPhee will find a way to devote a significant chuck of cash to the goaltending position, especially given how much this season illustrated the impact of mediocre goaltending on an otherwise very good team.
No doubt there are alarm bells going off for some Caps fans at the thought of signing a goalie to play the next three or four years for the the team given that Semen Varlamov and Michael Neuvirth are both pretty decent prospects. But the reality is that Neuvirth just turned 20 last week and Varlamov is only 19, so both are likely a ways from being capable NHL regulars. Like pitchers in baseball or quarterbacks in football, goalies tend to take long to develop; Kolzig didn’t become the Capitals’ starter until after his 25th birthday, Evgeni Nabokov was the same age when he became San Jose’s number one and Jean-Sebastien Giguere wasn’t a starter until he was 23. Even most highly-regarded netminders take a little while to get going: Roberto Luongo wasn’t a clear cut starter until he was 22 and Rick DiPietro only really put everything together last year, at age 25. Some goalies establish themselves at a younger age, but in all likelihood it’s going to take at least a couple seasons before either of the Capitals’ goaltending prospects will be ready and Huet seems to be more than capable of holding down the fort until then.
DMG’s 3 Stars
(1) Viktor Kozlov - 1 goal, 2 assists, +3, 7 shots
(2) Cristobal Huet - saved all 32 shots sent his way
(3) Alex Ovechkin - 1 goal, 1 assist, +2, 2 hits, 4 shots
Quick Hits
*Note: this was written before the results of the Flyers game were posted on TSN (my source). As it turns out, the Flyers have won and have now played the same number of games as the Capitals and have 91 points.
I’ve tried to avoid the Capitals’ current hot-button issue, simply because I don’t think it is one. To me, there shouldn’t be ambiguity about the roles of Olaf Kolzig and Cristobal Huet one the Caps. Consider these facts:
(1) Huet is tied for the best save percentage since the lockout and is 9th in the NHL in save percentage this season.
(2) Kolzig is tied for last (44th) in the league in save percentage this season.
(3) When he was being played heavily in December and January Kolzig had a save percentage of about .860
. Once he started playing less frequently he played better, posting a .922 save percentage in February.
(4) Kolzig won a Veniza in D.C., led the team to the Stanley Cup finals, stayed with the team through their rebuild and has been great in the community his entire tenure with the Capitals.
To me what those first two facts mean are that Cristobal Huet certainly seems to be the better of the two goalies right now and should get the nod as the number one goaltender. If Huet’s struggles and/or Kolzig starts playing lights out, fine, that is a situation the coaching staff can deal with at that time. But right now the season is three-quarters of the way done and each goaltender has had enough playing time that a decision can be made about who the number one is going to be.
What I don’t understand is the animosity some Capitals fans have towards Kolzig, wanting him demoted to the bench (or AHL), using him as the go-to scapegoat for losses (presumably because it’s now impossible to blame Jaromir Jagr or Glen Hanlon and blaming George McPhee is looking dumber every day), and forgetting all he’s done for the franchise. Not surprisingly this has created a backlash, with other fans insisting that Kolzig is the victim of bad luck, bad coaching, or bad defense and that he deserves to stay the starter now and into the future.
In my opinion, Capitals fans are letting their passion take control of their heads which isn’t necessarily a bad thing; after all every team wants die-hard fans. But to see the situation 
with being blinded by frustrations that Caps fans have had with Kolzig this season or their memories or Kolzig in better days it might be best to consider the case of a franchise player with another organization.
Take Steve Yzerman as an example. Like Kolzig, Yzerman was a first round draft pick who would become the face of his franchise during it’s most successful times and like Kolzig, and every other professional athlete, Yzerman saw his skills diminish with time. As an outsider looking in once Yzerman reached his 22nd NHL season, one where he would eventually post full-season career lows of 14 goals, 20 asssits and 34 points in 61 games, it would seem ridiculous for Red Wings fans to claim because of Yzerman’s diminished skills he should be benched or sent to the minor leagues and it would be equally ridiculous for them to claim that because of his past successes Yzerman should still be allowed to be the first line center and lead the team’s top powerplay unit. Yet this is in essence what many Capitals fans are doing with Kolzg, when what would be best would be for the organization to approach the situation the way the Red Wings handled Yzerman: acknowledge both what the player has done for the organization over the years and their diminishing skill set, and find a way to use the player in a productive role until they are ready to hang up the skates and join the front office.
Cristobal Huet stopped every shot he faced, Sergei Fedorov notched two assists and Matt Cooke…was in the building as the Capitals shut out the Eastern Conference leading New Jersey Devils, 4-0.
But it wasn’t just the new players that made the difference for the Capitals - Nicklas Backstrom and Alexander Semin each had two points, Donald Brashear chipped in with a goal and the team allowed only 18 shots on goal.
Also notable was Washington’s play with the man advantage, as the Caps scored each of the two times they had a powerplay. Fedorov is going to be important here; after Michael Nylander’s injury Bruce Boudreau moved Tomas Fleischmann to the first powerplay unit as the system called for two left-handed players down low. No offense to Flash, but the powerplay’s going to be a lot stronger with Fedorov filling that role.
DMG’s 3 Stars
(1) Cristobal Huet - 18 saves on 18 shots
(2) Alexander Semin - 1 goal, 1 assist, +1
(3) Nicklas Backstrom - 2 assists, +1
Quotable
“It was an ideal start, I would say. But we can’t stop here.”
Quick Hits
Despite warnings that he might not be terribly active at the deadline Capitals general manager George McPhee made three trades this afternoon, while still holding keeping his word that he wouldn’t give up too much in the way of players or picks.
As a primer, here’s an breakdown of the changes the Capitals made:
Acquired:
Matt Cooke
Sergei Fedorov
Cristobal Huet
Shipped Out:
2009 2nd round draft pick
Matt Pettinger
Rights to Ted Ruth
At face value, the Capitals look much improved. But are these moves really going to help the team as much as it seems like they should on paper? To answer, let’s take a look at each trade individually.
A 2nd round draft pick in 2009 to the Montreal Canadiens for Cristobal Huet
Initial Reaction: Wow. Shocking for a few reasons: Huet wasn’t supposed to be moved, the Caps are apparently willing to spell Olaf Kolzig as their starting goalie, and it’s odd that Huet was had for only a second round pick.
Pros
(1) Cristobal Huet is a good goalie. Really good. Like top ten in the NHL good.
(2) Huet’s save percentage is .916
(3) Olaf Kolzig’s save percentage is .888
(4) Brent Johnson’s save percentage is .908
(5) Acquiring Huet now gives the Caps a chance to show off their young talented core to him and gives them the jump on negotiating a contract with the free-agent-to-be.
(6) He only cost a second round pick.
(7) Coming from le bleu, blanc et rouge of Montreal, Huet’s pads already match the Capitals’ uniforms.
Cons
(1) Huet is still a free agent come July 1.
(2) How will Kolzig handle his demotion?
(3) Kolzig deserved better. I’m not saying the Capitals shouldn’t have made this trade, but it is unfortunate for Olie the way this season has played out.
Grade: A. The Capitals addressed their biggest weakness even if it meant possibly offending a portion of their fan base, picked up a very good player and have a chance to build with this move if they can re-sign Huet. No other goalie nearly this good was available and it only cost the Capitals a second round pick.
The rights to Ted Ruth for Sergei Fedorov
Intial Reaction: Again a surprise. Not that Fedorov was moved, but that the Capitals were able to pick him up. Who’s Ted Ruth?
Pros
(1) Fedorov is an offensively skilled center who can hopefully fill Michael Nylander’s shoes.
(2) Ted Ruth is far from a blue-chip prospect.
(3) Fedorov seems a good fit for the Capitals second line since he’s historically a good defensive center, gives Alexander Semin a Russian countryman to work with and has undeniable offensive talent.
(4) Fedorov has played 1178 NHL games, 162 NHL playoff games and won three Stanley Cups. That’s the kind of veteran presence you want when you’re making a playoff push.
(5) Fedorov’s contract expires after this season.
Cons
(1) Fedorov has become too lazy too often in recent years.
Grade: A-. Fedorov is a great pick up for the Capitals second line because he not only has offensive skill but because he is a two-time Selke winner who speaks Semin’s language (literally).
Matt Pettinger for Matt Cooke
Initial Reaction: A fair trade and a solid pickup for a player (Pettinger) who needed a change of scenery.
Pros
(1) Matt Cooke is a solid defensive player.
(2) Pettinger couldn’t seem to get things going in D.C. this year, so maybe a new locale will help.
(3) Cooke provides grit and agitation skills, something the Caps could use a little more of.
Cons
(1) Pettinger has more offensive upside than Cooke.
(2) At 27, Pettinger is two years younger than Cooke.
Grade: B. Simply a good, fair trade that will probably benefit both teams in the end.
Aggregate Grade: B+ A-*. To me, these trades are even better than they initially look because each player has some advantage beyond their playing skill: that the Caps can start negotiations with Huet for the future earlier than anyone else, Fedorov’s experience and potential to mesh well with Semin and Cooke’s agitation tendencies. The Capitals filled two of their biggest holes with the acquisition of Fedorov and Huet and didn’t give up a whole lot doing it and for the trades that were made I’d give them an A/A-. However there were two notables non moves: the failure to trade for a big, mean stay-at-home defenseman and the decision to hold on to Steve Eminger. Perhaps they were the best decisions because perhaps the Capitals couldn’t get a stay-at-home defender for what they were willing to give up and perhaps they didn’t get any decent offers for Eminger. But those non-moves keep this deadline from being a complete success…although the team came much closer than anyone could have expected.
*Okay, Mark, you convinced me!
