7/26, 5:46 PM - Five possible Washington Capitals salary cap scenarios
The final contract question of the Capitals’ offseason was answered today, when an arbitrator awarded Shaone Morrisonn a one-year, $1.975 million dollar contract. The deal itself is more than fair for both Morrisonn and the Capitals, but it does create a salary cap crunch for the team.
Assuming the Capitals retain this roster, with the exceptions of sending Quintin Laing to Hershey, Brian Pothier being on long-term injured reserve, and keeping Karl Alzner with the club, the team’s salary cap situation breaks down as follows:
Forwards: $37,510,962
Defensemen: $14,582,639
Goaltenders: $5,312,500
Buyouts: $250,000
Total: $57,656,101
Salary Cap: $56,700,000
…putting the Capitals $956,101 over the cap.
There are several contracts that could be second-guessed here: Fedorov at four million, Brashear at 1.2 million, and Erskine at all are the ones that stand out the most. But there’s no use worrying about what’s already done. So what are the Capitals’ options moving forward? The answer to that question depends largely on the development of Karl Alzner and the health of Chris Clark. With that in mind, here are several possible salary cap scenarios:
Scenario #1
Key Points: Karl Alzner isn’t ready to play regular NHL minutes come October.
Transactions: Alzner is sent to Hershey.
Salary Cap Implications: Alzner’s $1,675,000 cap hit doesn’t count towards the Capitals while he’s in Hershey, bringing the overall cap number down to $55,981,101, giving the team $718,899 in cap space to start the season. Of course, if the team decides to call up Alzner at a later date part of his cap number will count for 2008-09. But that’s a situation the team deals with when it occurs.
Positives: The team gets under the salary cap without having to move anyone.
Negatives: The Caps’ defense would probably be better off if Alzner is ready to step into the lineup for John Erskine.
Scenario #2
Key Points: Chris Clark isn’t healthy enough to start the season
Transactions: Clark is placed on long-term injury reserve.
Salary Cap Implications: The Capitals would get cap relief from Clark’s $2,633,333 putting them at $55,022,678, $1,110,566 under the cap.
Positives: The team gets under the salary cap without having to move anyone.
Negatives: The team would miss Clark’s leadership, as well as his grinding style of play and secondary scoring skill. Uncertainty about how close Clark might be to coming back would make it difficult to acquire a backup, since Clark’s salary counts at a pro-rated amount once he starts playing.
Scenario #3
Key Points: Alzner is not NHL-ready and Chris Clark is hurt to start the season.
Transactions: Alzner is sent to Hershey and Clark goes on the long-term injury list.
Salary Cap Implications: The team starts out with $4,308,333 in cap relief, giving them $3,352,232 in cap space.
Positives: No one has to be moved and the cap space is enough to acquire a decent player.
Negatives: The team doesn’t start the season as strong as they look like they might. The unsure nature of when Alzner would be ready and Clark’s injury means it’s not obvious how much is available to spend on replacements.
Scenario #4
Key Points: Alzner is NHL-ready and Clark is fully recovered, but the team wants to keep all its players.
Transactions: Alzner is sent to Hershey.
Salary Cap Implications: Same as the first scenario: the team’s cap number goes to $55,981,101 giving them $718,899 in cap space.
Positives: The team gets its salary cap relief and keeps its depth.
Negatives: If Alzner is good enough to play a regular shift in the NHL the team will be weakening itself by not playing him instead of John Erskine.
Scenario #5
Key Points: Alzner is NHL-ready and Clark is fully recovered, and the team wants to keep Alzner in the NHL.
Transactions: There would be a number of options in this case but the most likely (and probably best) moves would be for the team to either trade, waive, or demote both John Erskine and Tomas Fleischmann.
Salary Cap Implications: Erskine’s $537,500 and Fleischmann’s $725,000 come off the books, netting the Capitals $1,262,500 in savings, putting them at $56,393,601, which would be $306,399 under the cap.
Positives: Provided everyone is healthy this scenario gives the Capitals the best twenty-man on-the-ice lineup. Erskine is a borderline NHLer and Fleischmann is behind Clark, Alexander Semin (if he plays on the right), Eric Fehr, Matt Bradley on the depth chart. Boyd Gordon and Brooks Laich are both better options capable of playing on the right side as well.
Negatives: Losing Erskine and Fleischmann would hurt the team’s depth. It’s unlikely the Capitals would get much in return for either player but it’s unlikely Fleischmann would clear waivers as well. Some in the organization think Fleischmann is poised for a breakout season so it may hurt to lose him in the long run.
Of course there are other possible scenarios; someone could get hurt in training camp or someone else could be traded. But these five are probably the most likely.
Tomas Fleischmann - Flash has nothing left to prove at the AHL level, where he’s scored 114 points in 102 games since 2005, but he hasn’t been able to consistently contribute offensively in Washington. I think Flash stands a pretty good chance at getting on the scoresheet on a regular basis now that he’s becoming aware that he is not skilled enough to get by on skill alone and has hence started working harder without the puck and driving to the net. I’m still not completely sold on Fleischmann though and time is starting to run out for him, although you’d have to think that if he’s ever going to show he can play at the NHL level it would be under another relatively slight winger who showed a ton of skill in the minors but couldn’t stick in the NHL.
Viktor Kozlov - Kozlov hasn’t been as bad as some Caps fans seem to think (a number of people have recently advocated his benching in the comments on Capitals Insider). He’s second on the team in assists and shots and is getting his chances - he just needs to start converting them. And he will.
Olaf Kolzig - After allowing six goals on 22 shots against Ottawa (despite not playing all that poorly) Kolzig’s save percentage is down to .888 and his GAA up to 3.02. His numbers haven’t been stellar and he’s let in a number of soft goals, but he has been playing better recently, even if the numbers don’t show it. With Johnson out 2-4 weeks and with the team playing well and gaining ground in the playoff race the Capitals need Kolzig to be a solid presence in net.
Matt Pettinger - In a season that has been disappointing thus far for Capitals fans perhaps no single player has been as disappointing as Pettinger, who has only five points in 37 games and was a healthy scratch against Ottawa. But the numbers look worse than Pettinger’s play has been - while Pettinger has only two goals he is getting his chances and his shots per game average (1.86) is about the same as what it’s been the last couple years (1.81), and you don’t go from being a guy who shoots better than 14% to a guy who shoots under 3% without some bad luck in there. Although Pettinger has only three assists he has played much of the year with Boyd Gordon and David Steckel, neither of whom is finding the net on a regular basis. At this point I think Pettinger’s problem is largely mental - he looked like he was on his game early in the year and I think the lack of success he’s had playing his game started to get to him, he started to doubt himself, got off his game and has looked a little lost. Hopefully sitting out a game or two helps him get his head back together and boosts his on-ice performance.
Jeff Schultz - Schultz is a defensive defenseman, so unlike Kolzig or Kozlov it might not be as obvious when he turns a corner and is able to elevate his game. Rather than flashy goals or saves, Schultz is at his best when he plays positionally, frustrates opponents and avoids mistakes. Not especially jaw-dropping stuff, but it’s an important role nonetheless. Sarge has been looking smarter and more comfortable almost by the game and is close to becoming a very solid backline presence. Schultz has also taken some heat for not being physical enough given his size (6′5”, 215) and the nature of his game. I don’t think it’s that Schultz won’t initiate contact, I think it’s that he doesn’t want to draw himself out of position trying to deliver a big hit. As he become more aware and more confident in his own end watch for his physical game to improve as well.
David Steckel - I conceived this post a couple weeks ago, but the holidays make me lazy (you know it happens to you too) and I wish that I’d written it up before before Steckel three-point performance against Tampa Bay, but here it goes anyway: Steckel has received praise from Caps management and fans for doing jobs that are all too often underappreciated (playing a defensive role, faceoffs, penalty kills) and so it’s become easy to forget that he put up 61 points (30+31) in 71 games for Hershey last year. While Steckel will never be a great scorer at the NHL level he has enough talent to chip in offensively on a consistent basis. Lately he’s looked more comfortable in the offensive end, going to the net more often, being more assertive and showing better vision, so I’d expect some points to follow.