As we continue to wind down from the 2007-08 season, Caps Blue Line will take a look at the state of the team, by position, looking forward to 2008-09. Please note that depth charts are based on my opinion, not where the players actually stand in the organization.

Top Performer: Cristobal Huet. Maybe a low hurdle to a certain extent, but Cristobal Huet would have been the top performer on a lot of teams this season, going 32-14-6 with a .920 save percentage (tied for sixth in the NHL) and a 2.32 goals against average (tied for ninth in the league). Huet was also at his best (11-2, .936, 1.63) with the Capitals.

Underachiever: Olaf Kolzig. Kolzig started strong and did a bit to redeem himself after his playing time was reduced in the season’s second half, but for much of the year he was one of the league’s worst netminders statistically and was, by his own admission, allowing a soft goal in most of his starts.

Underrated: Cristobal Huet. Only three to chose from means that this label goes to Huet, who has the second best post-lockout save percentage in the NHL.

One to watch: Daren Machesney. Until this season, Machesney’s resume was not all that impressive. Picked 143rd overall in 2005, Machesney split his first professional season (2006-07) between South Carolina (ECHL) and Hershey (AHL), putting up save percentages of .888 and .887 and GAA’s of 3.30 and 3.18. In 2007-09, Machesney performed significantly better for Hershey, posting a .916 save percentage, a 2.55 GAA and a record of 22-10-2. A good showing in 2008-09 would go a long way towards establishing Machesney as a legitimate NHL prospect, while a poor showing would relegate him to the “career AHLer” ranks (for the time being at least).

Under Contract for 2008-09: Brent Johnson, Daren Machesney, Michael Neuvirth, Semen Varlamov
Restricted Free Agents: none.
Unrestricted Free Agents: Cristobal Huet, Olaf Kolzig

Depth Chart
(1) Brent Johnson
(2) Daren Machesney
(3) Semen Varlamov
(4) Michael Neuvirth

The Good: Cristobal Huet played extremely well after being traded to the Capitals, while Brent Johnson still looks like a very good reserve goaltender. Prospect-wise, both Neuvirth and Varlamov had solid years and should be ready for their first pro season in North America, and Machesney had a better season than anyone could have expected.

The Bad: Olaf Kolzig had the worst year of his career statistically and is out for good in D.C.; Huet’s playoff performance did not match what he was able to do for the Capitals down the stretch in the regular season.

2008-09 Outlook: At the moment, the outlook for the Capitals goaltending situation for next season isn’t very good - Johnson, a one time NHL starter, is the only goalie under contract with any NHL experience and none of the other netminders inked for next year are NHL ready. As Capitals’ fans already know, how the team shapes up in the crease for next season is primarily contingent on George McPhee being able to get Huet under contract. If Huet decides to stay in D.C. the team should feel very comfortable with their goaltending situation; if not things will get very messy, and the Caps would likely be forced to take a chance on a less-than-desirable goalie from an unimpressive free agent pool and hope for the best.

As we continue to wind down from the 2007-08 season, Caps Blue Line will take a look at the state of the team, by position, looking forward to 2008-09. Please note that depth charts are based on my opinion, not where the players actually stand in the organization.

Top Performer: Mike Green. Green’s 18 goals, 38 assists and 56 points were all best among Capitals’ defensemen and good enough for first among all NHL defensemen in goals and seventh in points. In addition to his offensive prowess, Green was a +6 for the season and led Washington defensemen with 53 takeaways.

Underachiever: Milan Jurcina. After the way he finished last season, there was hope Jurcina could become an imposing stay-at-home presence. However his nconsistency and penchant for poor decision making made for a frustrating season, and even resulted in the towering blueliner being a healthy scratch on several occasions.

Underrated: Tom Poti. Poti’s offensive output wasn’t what the Capitals and their fans had hoped for in 2007-08 (2 goals, 29 points in 71 games), but the veteran was the team’s most consistent defenseman in the defensive zone, was second in +/- among defenseman (behind also-underrated Jeff Schultz), was second among defensemen in takeaways and led the team in blocked shots.

One to watch: Karl Alzner. Alzner was the Western Hockey League’s MVP in 2007-08 and captained both his WHL team (Calgary) and the Canadian Junior team. The consensus seems to be that Alzner’s future in the NHL is very bright - the only question is how good he’ll be in 2008-09; the answer has huge ramifications for the quality of the Capitals’ defense corps.

Under Contract for 2008-09: Karl Alzner, John Erskine, Milan Jurcina, Sami Lepisto, Brian Pothier, Tom Poti, Jeff Schultz.
Restricted Free Agents: Steve Eminger, Mike Green, Shaone Morrisonn.
Unrestricted Free Agents: none.

Depth Chart
(1) Mike Green
(2) Tom Poti
(3) Shaone Morrisonn
(4) Jeff Schultz
(5) Brian Pothier
(6) Steve Eminger
(7) Karl Alzner
(8) Milan Jurcina
(9) Sami Lepisto
(10) John Erskine
(11) Josh Godfrey
(12) Joe Finley

The Good: Mike Green’s season pretty much speaks for itself. Shaone Morrisonn has developed into a solid defensive defenseman (and clicks very well with the freewheeling Green), Tom Poti is consistent and contributes at both ends. With Karl Alzner, Viktor Dovgan, Sami Lepisto and Joe Finley in the pipeline and Steve Eminger, Jeff Schultz and Milan Jurcina all under 25, the is a lot of untapped potential. Each Capital defender who played more than 20 games in 2007-08 finished with a positive plus-minus rating.

The Bad: The group lacks a true shutdown defenseman. It’s a role Poti and Morrisonn can play fairly well, but neither is good enough go up against the league’s best forwards, a problem that can become especially significant in the goal-scoring talent-laden Southeast Division. The defense’s biggest bodies have significant questions to answer about their play in general, specifically John Erskine’s skating and stick handling, Milan Jurcina’s decision making and Jeff Schultz’s toughness, preventing them from using their frames as effectively as they otherwise could. The combination of so many players still in development and a career-threatening injury to Brian Pothier means the depth chart is very unsettled.

2008-09 Outlook: Despite all the questions that loom for George McPhee and Bruce Boudreau about the Capitals’ defensive unit, the outlook for next season is good. On one hand only four players who are expected to be back next year have proven themselves as legitimate top six defenders: Mike Green, Tom Poti, Shaone Morrisonn and Jeff Schultz. On the other hand, Steve Eminger played well in the playoffs, Sami Lepisto had four goals, 41 assists and a +29 rating in 55 games in the AHL this year, Karl Alzner looks more like a can’t-miss prospect every day and Milan Jurcina and John Erskine already have significant NHL experience. The Capitals are only going to need to fill three roster spots (assuming Brian Pothier does not return and barring any free agent signings) and they seem to have the depth to do so already - even if it’s not entirely clear what the pecking order is going to be on opening night.
If the Capitals do need to make an addition at defense, it would be, as often talked about by Caps’ fans, a big, physical, stay-at-home defender who could intimidate opposing forwards and match up with just about anyone in the league; someone along the lines of Mike Komisarek, Robyn Regehr or former Capital Brendan Witt. Although it would be nice for the Caps to have this kind of presence along their blue line, it’s not essential, as the continued development of defensive prospects means that the Capitals defense should be better than the unit that allowed fewer than two goals a game after the trading deadline in 2007. This, along with the high price of physical defenseman who can keep up with the pace in the post-lockout NHL, means the Capitals would likely be wise to go into the season with the players they have now and try to add toughness on the blue line via a late season trade if it becomes an issue.

As we continue to wind down from the 2007-08 season, Caps Blue Line will take a look at the state of the team, by position, looking forward to 2008-09. Please note that depth charts are based on my opinion, not where the players actually stand in the organization.

Top Performer: Alexander Ovechkin. He’s going to win the league MVP, so naturally he was the Caps’ best forward this year.

Underachiever: Tomas Fleischmann. Fleischmann was impressive enough in camp to win a spot across from Alex Ovechkin on the top line, but wound up only 10 goals and 30 points this year, and was scratched for several games in the playoffs.

Biggest Surprise: Brooks Laich. When Laich was acquired for Peter Bondra, he was pitched as a versatile depth forward with the potential to contribute more if everything came together. Given his attitude and work ethic, it isn’t surprising Laich turned into a solid contributer. What is surprising is that he managed to do so at 24.

Underrated: Eric Fehr. Fehr’s a player who’s hard to evaluate objectively, with his career already marked by significant injury woes and the stigma of being selected one pick before Ryan Getzlaf on him. Fehr was able to bring an important presence to the Capitals though, using his big frame to crash the net and create havoc in the opponent’s end. He won’t ever be Getzlaf, but once Fehr gets his hands back and finishes filling out his frame, he’ll be a very solid forward.

One to watch: Eric Fehr. I think Fehr, more than any other Capitals forward, is poised for a breakout year in 2008-09.

Under Contract for 2008-09: Nicklas Backstrom, Donald Brashear, Tomas Fleischmann, Viktor Kozlov, Quintin Laing, Michael Nylander, Alexander Ovechkin, Alexander Semin, David Steckel.
Restricted Free Agents: Eric Fehr, Boyd Gordon, Brooks Laich
Unrestricted Free Agents: Matt Bradley, Matt Cooke, Sergei Fedorov

Depth Charts

Left Wing
(1) Alexander Ovechkin
(2) Alexander Semin
(3) Chris Bourque
(4) Donald Brashear
(5) Quintin Laing

Center
(1) Nicklas Backstrom
(2) Michael Nylander
(3) Brooks Laich
(4) Boyd Gordon
(5) David Steckel
(6) Kyle Wilson
(7) Mathieu Perreault

Right Wing
(1) Viktor Kozlov
(2) Chris Clark
(3) Eric Fehr
(4) Tomas Fleischmann
(5) Andrew Gordon
(6) Ben Clymer
(7) Francois Bouchard

The Good: The Capitals are one player with breakout season away from having a very impressive first two lines with Backstrom, Ovechkin, Kozlov, Nylander and Semin all being legitimate top six players at the NHL level. Fortunately, the Capitals now have enough forward depth that at least one of Eric Fehr, Books Laich, Chris Clark and Tomas Fleischmann should be to pull top six duty next season. The Capitals depth also shows in two other, oft underrated areas: defense and versatility. Boyd Gordon, Chris Clark, David Steckel, Brooks Laich and Quintin Laing are all good defensive forwards, even if none are Selke-worthy; in terms of versatility, Capitals have at least six forwards who spent significant time in the NHL who are capable of playing center and nearly all the Caps’ forwards can play more than one position. The key player here is Brooks Laich who is capable of providing a solid defensive presence and the ability to chip in on offense from any of the three forward positions.

The Bad: While the Capitals have a number of good defensive forwards, the checkers could stand to chip in more on offense (Steckel, Gordon and Laing had a combined 13 goals, including several empty netters, in a combined 173 games). Other than Ovechkin, none of the Capitals top five forwards play a very physical game.

2008-09 Outlook: With five of their top six spots filled, a versatile forward corps and plenty of high-potential players in the mix, the Capitals’ outlook for next season is excellent. The potential of having Chris Clark, Alexander Semin and Michael Nylander for the entire season and the continued development of Backstrom, Fehr and Fleischmann, means the Capitals have a legitimate shot at leading the league in scoring in 2008-09 (if you think that’s crazy, consider that the Capitals averaged 3.13 goals per game under Boudreau, a rate that would have them tied for second in the league this season). In terms of defense, the Capitals should look to add one or two more players, someone who can agitate opponents, someone who can play a physical game and back it up by dropping the gloves and someone who can kill penalties. These roles could be filled by re-signing Matt Cooke and Matt Bradley. If they chose to leave Washington there will be other options in the free agent market - I personally favor Adam Hall and Aaron Asham; if the Capitals want to avoid bidding on free agents, Chris Bourque is likely ready to step in to a grinder role.  Given that the team only has this one need at the forward position, McPhee should not have too much difficulty filling it.

During the Capitals 2-0 loss to the Flyers is became pretty readily apparent that they need to make some changes to their gameplan if they hope to succeed in picking the win in at least one of the two games they have this week in Philadelphia. The changes that need to made include:

(1) Scratch John Erskine. This isn’t number one necessarily because I think it’s the most important one, but I do think it’s the most obvious. Erskine can hit pretty well and he can fight, but that’s about all he has going for him; for Erskine a successful game is one where he doesn’t give up a scoring chance because of his suspect skating ability or take an unnecessary penalty. I like Erskine as a reserve defenseman but why he’s playing while Steve Eminger, who’s quicker, more agile and has more offensive upside, sits in the press box is a mystery to me.

(2) Improve play in front of the nets. It didn’t come back to bite the Caps in Game 2 but they were still letting the Flyers have far too easy a time setting up in front of Cristobal Huet, and that’s something the Capitals aren’t going to be able to get away with for an entire series. At the other end Caps players are going to the net but they’re doing so only to look for rebounds and as a result aren’t creating near enough havoc in front of the Philadelphia net in terms of screens, potential deflections and drawing penalties.

(3) Simplify. In the neutral zone this means looking for a pass, only carrying the puck when there’s space and dumping it when necessary (I’m lookin’ at you, Ovechkin, Green and Semin). In the offensive zone this means getting pucks to the net, getting traffic in front of the net and battling in the slot for rebounds rather than endlessly passing the puck while looking for a perfect chance. Last game the Capitals passed up more good scoring chances that I could count.

None of these changes are particularly complex, but I’d expect each of them to pay dividends.

It’s a fact that’s been beating down on Capitals fans for most of this season, and it was again underscored during last night’s 5-2 loss to the Montreal Canadiens: you can’t make the playoffs with a mediocre goalie. There are simply too many teams with good goaltenders for that to happen.

Let me explain. In my mind there are four classes of goaltenders in the NHL (please note the examples I use are how good the players are right now, not their career potential):

Tier I - “Dominant”

Dominant goaltenders have three distinct characteristics. One is that they have no obvious weaknesses. They are technically and positionally sound, control rebounds, play smart and are just as hard to beat up high as down low. The second is that they very rarely allow soft goals. The third characteristic is mental toughness: these netminders aren’t going to get rattled when things don’t go their way (which is going to happen sooner or later if you play in net).

Results-wise these goalies will virtually never cost their team the game and will in fact keep their team in games they have no business being in and will “steal” games for their team on a regular basis. I would estimate that there are between three and five such goalies in the NHL right now, the prototypical example being Roberto Luongo (pictured).

Tier II - “Very Good”

These goalies are generally solid and can be counted to play a good game the vast majority of the time, but are not quite at that dominant level because they aren’t top-notch is every aspect of the game. They may have only average lateral movement, five-hole coverage, positioning or rebound control. They may allow too many soft goals, not make enough big saves or get rattled too easily.

Although goalies in this second tier are not dominant night in and night out they are difficult to beat and it usually takes a nice play, a rebound, a screen or sustained pressure to get one by them. While they won’t steal games for their teams on a frequent basis it’s not exactly a rare occurrence either. Although you could technically do better as a coach or general manager, any solid team should have success with a goalie of this caliber. Ryan Miller would be an example of a Tier II goalie.

Tier III - “Decent”

An average goalie is just that - average. They probably don’t excel at any particular aspect and the areas where they are above average are offset by other areas where they are below average - or worse. Tier III goalies have clearly exploitable holes that they are unable to compensate for without making themselves even more vulnerable. Soft goals are not uncommon and if the goalie steals more than a game or two a season for his team he’s outperformed expectations. These goalies are often “tweeners” - not quite good enough to be a starter for a contending team but better than most backups. Examples would include Marc Denis and Vesa Toskala.

Tier IV - “Mediocre”

Mediocre goals will very rarely steal a game for their team, will let in soft goals on a regular basis and have easily exploitable holes visible even to casual fans. While Tier IV goalies may make passable backups any team that is starting one is going to be in trouble, no matter how skilled the rest of their lineup is. For an example think of any unspectacular career backup, such as John Grahame or Curtis Sanford.

Goaltenders are not necessarily normally distributed and these tiers are based more on how difficult a goalie is to beat than how good they are compared to other goalies in the league. I believe that the distribution of goaltending tiers is significantly different than it has been in the past. When I was younger (and playing as a goalie myself) it seemed to me there were 2-4 dominant goalies and another 5-8 very good goalies in the league at any given time and that most teams were starting decent (Tier III) goalies. Now I believe there are 3-5 dominant goalies, at least 10 more very good goalies* and as many as 30 decent goalies.

Why? Better coaching has lead to better technical ability, so fewer holes open up to shooters. Bigger equipment and bigger players at the position mean that when those holes do open up they’re smaller than ever before.

That a team needs an above average goaltender to be a serious contender and, in most cases, to get into the playoffs has not changed. What has changed is what it means to be an average goalie in the NHL. Just as major league pitchers now throw more pitches and throw harder than in the past and just as NHL skaters are bigger, faster and have harder shots than their predecessors, goalies have gotten better.

So where is Kolzig in all this? In my opinion Kolzig borders between a Tier III and Tier IV goalie at this point in his career. Kolzig is not the kind of goalie a contending team would want - he has poor lateral movement and has let in far too many soft goals this season, mostly on wraparounds and through his five-hole. But at the same time he is not a clear-cut backup.

Regardless of whether Kolzig is a Tier III or Tier IV goalie, he is well below average for the league and ranks 37th in save percentage and 35th in goals against average (GAA). This is not a new trend for Kolzig. Last season he tied for 17th in save percentage and 33rd in GAA; the year before he was 33rd and 44th. Part of that is due to the fact that the Capitals were not a very good team (to say the least), but the numbers suggest what should have been apparent to anyone watching the games: Kolzig was now a average NHL goalie at best. This season having Kolzig be average would be an improvement. With so many talented goalies in the NHL right now a team has to have a guy who is at least on the border of Tier II and Tier III to be a playoff contender, unless the rest of their team is very talented.

So can the Capitals make playoffs with Kolzig? They can, but it will be difficult. What would be ideal for a team with so many young players (including the league’s youngest defense corps) would be to have a solid netminder who’s going to steal them some games - not one they’ll have to bail out more often than he bails them out. But the Capitals are a dynamic, talented team that’s getting better every day and they may soon be able to carry a mediocre goalie and still win with regularity.

If that sounds crazy, consider this: how much better are Mike Green, Jeff Schultz and Nicklas Backstrom playing right now than they were in October? With so much young talent this could be a significantly stronger team in less than a month. If the Capitals can have their key players continue to develop quickly they stand a very good chance at being a solid enough to carry a questionable goalie. Pittsburgh made the playoffs last year, didn’t they?

Caps fans ought to hope the team can do so because General Manager George McPhee’s hands are tied at this point in terms of trying to bring in a goalie to supplant Kolzig as the starter as such a player would be difficult to acquire and the inevitable rift in the clubhouse from Kolzig being forced to accept such a demotion would likely ruin any team chemistry. It’s not that Olie isn’t a team guy, he is. But he’s also very competitive…and not very good at hiding it when he is upset.

The offseason is different story though. In fact, I think I heard Joe B. say Cristobal Huet would be a free agent after this season…

*Goalies who I think would clearly fit into either Tier I or Tier II include the ones listed below. There are several others who may or may not be in Tier II, such as Martin Gerber, Ray Emery and Carey Price.

Martin Brodeur
Ilya Bryzgalov
Rick DiPietro
Jean-Sebastien Giguere
Cristobal Huet
Miikka Kiprusoff
Pascal Leclaire
Henrik Lundqvist
Roberto Luongo
Ryan Miller
Evgeni Nabokov
Marty Turco
Tomas Vokoun