Capitals 3, Hurricanes 2

At some point during his thirty-eight goal 2006-07 season, I started expecting Alexander Semin to score any time he had the puck within ten feet of the opponent’s goal or an open shot in the slot. His injury-plagued and somewhat disappointing 2007-08 campaign dampened that enthusiasm but with the way Semin’s been producing this season, he’s pretty much back to where he was in 06-07 in my book and, naturally, his two goals night against the Hurricanes didn’t hurt.

As much credit as Semin deserves, Alexander Ovechkin played a critical role in Semin’s second goal. Last season, Ovechkin made a habit of cutting across the middle and firing a shot on goal after he had gained the blue line, picking up a lot of goals in the process. This season defensemen have been more aware of this tendency and have been playing Ovechkin tighter once he starts moving towards the slot. What Ovechkin did so well on the play leading to Semin’s goal was to pass the puck rather than try and force a bad play some which Ovechkin, for all his talents, does too often.

Not to be lost in the celebration of the two Alexes is the performance Brent Johnson put in, stopping thirty-two of thirty-four Hurricanes shots and keep pace with Cam Ward. Even if that Tuomo Ruutu goal was pretty ugly.

Caps Blue Line 3 Stars
(1) Alexander Semin
(2) Alexander Ovechkin
(3) Brent Johnson

Quick Hits

• Bruce Boudreau must have had a talk with Mike Green following the team’s loss to Buffalo because Green’s played much better defense in the team’s last couple of games.
• Tomas Fleischmann continues to be an enigma and to have once again disappeared from the game.
• Ovechkin and John Erskine accounted for twelve of the Capitals twenty-one hits.

Capitals 4, Hurricanes 1

You can’t necessarily draw too many conclusions from one game but it certainly looked like one of the teams in last night’s game deserved to be in the playoffs…and it wasn’t the team that came in ahead in the standings. The Capitals flat out dominated this game - they outshot the Hurricanes 39-22, won 55% of the faceoffs, outhit their visitors 29-21 and controlled the play for the majority of each of the game’s three periods.

Of course, the Capitals did get a little help from the Hurricanes and, frankly, from the officials. Not that every call went the Capitals way (after all, the Hurricanes only goal was scored because the officials missed Brooks Laich’s stick being slashed out of his hands), but the Capitals had the benefit of the doubt from the men in stripes (and orange armbands) all night long.

The question is: was this a matter of luck, or is it somewhat telling of where Carolina now stands with the NHL’s officials? After all, everyone knows that officials hate to be shown up and that word travels fast in the NHL these days. The Hurricanes are quickly gaining a reputation as a team of divers and regardless to what extent it’s true the reality is that just as players like Sean Avery, Alex Burrows or Donald Brashear can be sent to the sin bin for “reputation penalties”, a team can be victimized if they’re thought to be particularly unfriendly to officials…and Peter Laviolette’s uncalled for temper tantrum(s) (in which, by the way, he had the same ‘I can’t control myself and am about to cry’ look as a four year old denied ice cream) certainly aren’t going to help.

Speaking of which, just as Capitals fans can be encouraged by the way their team won I think it makes sense to be encouraged by the way the Hurricanes lost. Laviolette, as mentioned, blew a gasket not once, but twice at the referees and that’s not something that’s going to enamor him (or his team) to the league’s officials. Brett Hedican, a 37-year-old veteran with nearly 1,000 NHL games under his belt took a frustration penalty after being hit by Alex Ovechkin. In an attempt to establish himself physically Jeff Hamilton fell backward and took a four minute high-sticking penalty. The Hurricanes bench took a penalty for abuse of officials immediately after a penalty was called on the Capitals. All while being thoroughly dominated by the Capitals in a game that Carolina had at least as much motivation to win. It could just have been one bad night. But if it’s anything more than that, if the Hurricanes stumble even a little bit in their two remaining games, it might cost them a post season berth. We’ll get to see tomorrow night when the ‘Canes travel back to Carolina to host Tampa Bay.

DMG’s 3 Stars
(1) Cristobal Huet - stopped 21 of 22 (.955%) shots sent his way
(2) Alex Semin - 1 goal, +1, 3 hits (including a big one early on to set the tone)
(3) Sergei Fedorov - 2 assists, +1, 67% on faceoffs

Quotable

“The atmosphere was great. I have never seen a building like that. I have never seen the building like that.”

-Mike Green

Quick Hits

• The three stars as chosen by the local media were the Capitals three trade deadline acquisitions.
• Apparently Semin can hit, so long as his energy is devoted there and not into slashing or roughing penalties.
• In addition to his goal, Matt Cooke had 6 hits.
• Jeff Schultz had 4 shot blocks.
• Is the key to getting Cam Ward off his game just to crash the net? If so, even if the Hurricanes make the playoffs, they’re not going anywhere.

Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals
Tuesday, April 1st, 2008, 7:00 PM
Verizon Center in Washington, D.C.
TV: CSN
Last Meeting: 3/26/08, Caps win 3-2 in the shootout

To call this one the biggest game of the season would be an understatement - this is biggest game this franchise has played in almost five years; the biggest since Martin St. Louis broke the hearts of Caps fans with an powerplay game winner in the third overtime at MCI Center on Easter Sunday, 2003, the result of a too many men on the ice call. A win Tuesday night would put the Capitals into a tie (points-wise) with Carolina for first in the Southeast Division, while a loss would all but extinguish the team’s already somewhat dim playoffs hopes. If the Capitals have proven anything this season it’s that they’re never down and out, and are at their best when their backs are against the wall. Do they have one more great win in them?

About the Opponent

Carolina Hurricanes: 42-31-6, 90 points, 1st in the Southeast Division, 3rd in the Eastern Conference

Team Leaders
Goals: Eric Staal (36)
Assists: Eric Staal (43)
Points: Eric Staal (79)
Plus/Minus: Joe Corvo (+19)
Penalty Minutes: Scott Walker (113)
Fights: Wade Brookbank (12)

Keys to the Game

Washington
Play your game. The Capitals are 32-17-7 under Bruce Boudreau and have won eight of their last nine. In short, the team knows how to play hockey and win games at the NHL level. What they need to do is not let the pressure of this game get to them and start changing the way they play.

Carolina
Score early. Cam Ward’s confidence against the Capitals has got to be high, so if the Hurricanes can get an early lead and concentrate on playing defense it might be hard for the Capitals to battle back.

Players to Watch

Washington
John Erskine - Carolina has a lot of good forwards and most of them are very good skaters while Erskine…is not. Due to his lack of foot speed and agility, Erskine is probably the best blue line target for the Hurricanes when they’re trying to create chances.

Carolina
Cam Ward - Ward’s been a little inconsistent this season, but he’s 5-0-1 against the Caps with a .950 save percentage. For Washington to win this one in regulation, they’ll need to do a better job of solving Ward.

Capitals 3, Hurricanes 2 (SO)

The Washington Capitals are a team desperate to get into the playoffs, and it shows. One game after a stunning third period comeback in Atlanta sent Thrashers fans home unhappy the Capitals visited division-leading Carolina and outshot them 44-27 (including 6-0 in overtime) en route to a shootout win. It was less than ideal - going to overtime meant the Hurricanes picked up a point as well and rather than gaining ground the Capitals merely kept pace as Boston and Philadelphia also won, but with all of their remaining games against the very beatable Southeast Division the Capitals are a good weekend away from pulling into the eight (or even seventh) spot in the Eastern Conference.

DMG’s 3 Stars
(1) Alex Ovechkin - 1 goal, 11 shots, +4, 4 hits
(2) Nicklas Backstrom - 2 assists, 4 shots, +1, 4-6 on faceoffs
(3) Alex Semin - 1 goal

Or: Why Things Might Not be as Bad as they Seem

With their Sunday afternoon loss to the Penguins, the Capitals’ playoffs hopes seem to be in a precarious position - they’re seven points out of the division lead (with a game in hand) and six points out of the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference (held by Philadelphia, which has a game in hand on the Caps). I’ll admit that it doesn’t look good, but I don’t think it’s as bleak as it might seem at first, for a couple of reasons:

1. The “I really want the Capitals to make the playoffs and it’s clouding my reasoning/relentless optimism” reason.

The Capitals are seven points behind the Hurricanes for the Southeast Division lead. It’s certainly possible the Capitals win the game they have in hand; perhaps even likely given that they’re winning more often than not these days. That would cut the deficit to five points. The Capitals also have two games remaining against Carolina. If (and that’s a big ‘if’) the Capitals can win those two, it pulls them to within one. It’s still an uphill battle no doubt, and while the Capitals don’t control their own destiny in terms of pulling ahead of the ‘Canes they do control their destiny in terms of getting within one point.

2. The Schedule

The Florida Panthers are 32-31-8, the Tampa Bay Lightning are 26-35-8 and the Atlanta Thrashers are 30-32-8 and in a complete tailspin. The Capitals play these teams a combined six times in their last twelve games. That’s 12 points the Capitals should have which means it should be an easy road to 84 points, with 12 more still up in the air. The Capitals haven’t performed they way they should have against the Southeast Division this season but the Capitals are also clearly a better team than Florida, Tampa or Atlanta.

It’s not as if the road the playoff will be easy one for the Capitals and there’s one problem that still stands in their way: The Numbers.

Glen Hanlon was fired 20 games into this season, with the Capitals at 6-13-1 (13 points). Since Bruce Boudreau took over the team has gone 26-17-7. That’s 1.18 points per game. The Capitals are currently sitting at 70 games played and 72 points. If the team can pick up points at the same rate during their last 12 games as they have in the 50 Boudreau has coached so far, they’ll wind up with 14, giving them 86 for the season. Put that up against what the Capitals are looking up at (this image was hard to fit in the post, but click on it and it will open in a might more viewable size),

…and things look pretty intimidating. If all the teams ahead of the Capitals keep their current pace, the Caps would need to take 21 of the remaining 24 points on their schedule. Of course, that won’t necessarily be the case. The odds of the Rangers, Bruins or Flyers stumbling down the stretch are pretty decent. Each team is far from bulletproof and each has struggled mightily at times this year, and that’s what would need to happen for the Capitals to have a shot at getting in as an eighth seed.

It’s for this reason the Capitals best bet for a playoff berth is to catch the Hurricanes. It’s not uncommon to hear coaches and players say that all they want is to be in control of their own destiny. The Capitals don’t quite have that advantage…but with the chance to pull within one point simply by winning three key games, it’d be hard to be any closer.

Capitals 3, Hurricanes 6

In a game players, coaches, fans and media agreed was the most important of the season to this point, the Capitals came out looking sharp and aggressive and controlled play for the first ten minutes of the game…but ultimately succumbed to bad luck and bad individual efforts. And no, the Caps didn’t lose because of any bad sports clichés that are sure to be thrown around in the wake of this game, phrases like “they don’t know how to win”, “they’re too inexperienced” or “they didn’t have the effort”.

The bad luck part is pretty self-explanatory: each of the Hurricanes first two goals came on the powerplay, with a Capitals player (David Steckel and then Milan Jurcina) without a stick. Without those bad breaks (no pun intended) and several very nice saves by Cam Ward, the Capitals could have easily been ahead three or four to nothing halfway through the third, instead of trailing 3-2.

There are two players whose efforts were poor enough to be significant contributions to the loss. One was Olaf “this is the biggest game of the season” Kolzig, who may be the victim of comparisons more than anything else. The two most obvious players Kolzig could be compared with are Alexander Ovechkin and Cam Ward and in neither case does he come out looking very good. Comparing Kolzig (the face of the franchise for more than ten years) with Ovechkin (the face of the franchise for the next thirteen at least) comes somewhat naturally in general. But the comparison was even more obvious this week. Leading into this game both Ovechkin and Kolzig addressed the game’s importance and recently each has addressed their own personal underperformance (the difference of course being that Ovechkin’s lasted about a week while Kolzig’s has gone on for several months), yet the responses of the players could not have been more different. Ovechkin was a dominant force, picking up assists on each of the Capitals’ goals and registering eight shots of his own, while also racking up five hits. Kolzig stopped 85.7% of the shots that came his way and had terrible rebound control all game. Kolzig’s average performance was also highlighted by the play of Cam Ward in the Hurricanes net. Unlike Kolzig, Ward made a number of difficult, crucial saves to keep his team in the game. If the team’s had switched goaltenders last night, not only would the Hurricanes have not won the game - it wouldn’t even have been close. All that said, though, Kolzig wasn’t very good, but he also wasn’t as bad as his numbers.

The more pressing concern in my mind was the continued poor play of John Erskine, who was directly responsible for two of the Capitals’ goals against, one when he failed to clear the puck in front of the net and one when he let Andrew Ladd get enough space and time that he was able to knock the puck past a prone Kolzig. That kind of play isn’t acceptable out of any defenseman; it’s especially not acceptable out of a 6′4”, 218 pound defenseman who’s a poor skater and has no offensive upside. What’s worse is that this can’t be chalked up to a bad game - opponents have consistently been getting time and space in front of the net and creating scoring chances when Erskine is on the ice. Honestly, I don’t know how he’s still getting a sweater.

The bad news is the Capitals are now six points out of the division lead. The good news is that (1) they still hold three games in hand on Carolina and (2) the team is one solid defensive defenseman and possibly a goaltending upgrade from being one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference, so even if the playoffs aren’t in the cards in 2008, they should be in 2009.

All photos AP/Getty by way of Yahoo!

A lot of the talk around this one is going to center on the game importance; most Caps fans didn’t need Olaf Kolzig to tell them that this is the biggest game of the year. I can’t really elaborate on that in prose (plus I’m sure that JP and Caps Chick will do a much better job of it than me), so I can just present you with what I do best: cold, hard facts. And numbers. Now, if I could just somehow work a graph into this preview, I’d be in heaven…*

The importance of the game is thus: If the Capitals win, they’ll be two points out of first with three games in hand. If Carolina wins, the Caps still have the three games in hand, but they’ll be six points out. With how tight things are right now, that’s a world of difference.

Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes
Saturday, February 23rd, 2008, 5:00 PM
RBC Center in Raleigh, North Carolina
TV: CSN+
Last Meeting: 2/8/2008, Caps lose 2-1

About the Opponent

Carolina Hurricanes: 31-28-5, 67 points, 1st in the Southeast Division, 3rd in the Eastern Conference

Team Leaders
Goals: Eric Staal (29)
Assists: tie - Rod Brind’Amour and Ray Whitney (32)
Points: Ray Whitney (57)
Plus/Minus: Bret Hedican (+16)
Penalty Minutes: Tim Gleason (74)
Fights: Wade Brookbank (8)

Random Hurricanes Fact
According to Wikipedia, ‘Canes winger and United States Olympian Erik Cole “is the only player in the NHL to ever be accorded two penalty shots in the same game.”

Random Hurricanes Statistic
28% of the Hurricanes goals this season have come on the powerplay.

Keys to the Game

Washington
Avoid mistakes. One of the Capitals’ calling cards early in the season was solid play for most of the game, with a few disastrous moments mixed in. During their recent struggles, this trend seems to have reoccurred. Whether it’s giving up a shorthanded goal, allowing the other team to score from behind the goal line, or blown defensive coverage, the Capitals need to avoid making these kinds of mistakes, because Carolina is going to be enough of a test without any extra help.

Carolina
Play a full sixty minutes. The Capitals have given up leads in five straight games, so the opposition isn’t out of it until the final buzzer.

Players to Watch

Washington
Alexander Ovechkin - when Ovechkin said the team may have been distracted on their recent vacation-like tour through Florida, he may have been speaking for himself as much as any other players. But a big game, with Alex having gone three in a row without a point…I think he’s the player to watch.

Olaf Kolzig - The last time Washington went up against Carolina, for the division lead, it was Brent Johnson in net. Kozlig has to feel like he’s got something to prove.

Carolina
Joe Corvo - As solid as they’ve been offensively in recent years, the ‘Canes haven’t had a good puck moving defenseman. The fact that they now do, with the addition of Corvo, makes them even more dangerous (for more about Joe Corvo visit this informative post from Japers’ Rink). As an aside, man do I like Japers’ Rink today.

*Yeah, that’s good enough to earn an ‘economics’ label.

Around the (Inter)net
If everyone keeps playing at the same pace they have been so far in 2008, the Caps will make the playoffs…The many faces of Wayne Gretzky…Apparently Alexander Semin isn’t a very good defensive player (who knew?)…Snippets from George McPhee and Bruce Boudreau…Someone’s going to have to make a trade, because these trade rumor stories are getting weirder and weirder…

On Monday the Senators and Hurricanes completed a trade (an increasingly rare transaction in the post-lockout NHL), as the ‘Canes sent forward Cory Stillman and defenseman Mike Commodore to Ottawa for winger Patrick Eaves and defenseman Joe Corvo.

As the Capitals primarily threat in the Southeast Division, any move that affects the Hurricanes affects the Capitals as well. As a whole this trade is pretty fair as the Senators picked up a forward to help their offense beyond the dynamo line of Daniel Alfredsson, Dany Heatley and Jason Spezza and another solid defender, while the Hurricanes get a more offensive inclined defenseman and a young winger. But this trade is more about the future than about the remainder of the 2007-08 season for the Hurricanes. While Stillman and Commodore are both unrestricted free agent this July, Eaves can still be held as a restricted free agent for another couple seasons and Corvo’s contract runs through the 2009-10 season.

All things considered this will probably end up being a fairly good trade for Carolina, but for the rest of this season the reality is they’ve given up a forward who was tied for second on the team in goals and was fourth in points and their best all around defenseman for a winger who will probably become a top six forward (but isn’t at this point) and a puck moving defenseman (who is nicknamed ‘Uh-oh’ for his defensive shortcomings and has some off-ice issues, to say the least). The ‘Canes aren’t exactly waiving the white flag, but with this move the Capitals should have a less difficult time winning the division.

Around the (Inter)net
The Caps recalled Sami Lepisto…Are the Islanders already training guys to become the Broad Street Bullies of the new millennium?…You know how they always say you hate to play against Sean Avery but you’d love to have him as a teammate? Apparently that’s not the case…Bruce Boudreau has Darren Eliot’s vote for Coach of the Year.

Capitals 1, Hurricanes 2

Well, it was nice while it lasted.

Less than 48 hours after taking over first place in the Southeast Division, the Capitals are once again in second place in their division and currently out of the playoff picture, after a loss to the Carolina Hurricanes on Friday night at Verizon Center.

Sometimes a team can lose and there’s not really anything for them to say except ‘we were outplayed’, rather than being able to point to specific areas that needed to be better. That wasn’t the case last night for the Capitals, who outshot and outhit Carolina, and can look to two reasons for their loss. The first is relatively simple and one the Capitals couldn’t have done much about: running into a hot goaltender in Cam Ward. Despite his less than stellar season totals the young ‘Canes netminder had stopped 94% of the shots thrown his way over Carolina’s last four games and was again in fine form against Washington, stopping 33 of 34 (97.1%) shots the Capitals got on net.

The second cause the loss can’t be blamed on anyone but the Capitals - going 0-7 on powerplays against the league’s worst penalty killing unit. Sure, Ward had some big saves, and the Hurricanes’ penalty killers certainly didn’t look like the league’s worst but the Capitals powerplay didn’t just fail to produce. It was, frankly, pathetic most of the night as the team couldn’t control the puck in the offensive zone and get set up with any regularity and instead would turn the puck over to the ‘Canes just over the blue line. All that aside, there’s no excuse for going 0-7 on the powerplay against anyone. Period.

The final interesting subplot from last night’s game I want to touch on is the Capitals’ lone goal scorer, Alexander Semin, who once again took his team off the powerplay with a stupid, selfish and completely unnecessary penalty, leveling a vicious two-handed on Niclas Wallin with less than thirty seconds to go in the third period. I think Semin’s in for some discipline from the coaching staff, having only made it through one game without taking his team off a powerplay after being called out by Bruce Boudreau. Given that Semin now has two powerplay goal on the season and has taken his team off the powerplay with unnecessary penalties at least five times, I have a pretty good idea what it could be: either a fine every time Semin costs his team the man advantage, a seat on the pine when the Capitals are on the PP or possibly even a game from the bird’s eye view of the press box. And one final thought on the plat to close things out. Could Wallin have been called for interference for holding down Semin in the crease? Sure. Should he have been? Maybe. But Semin’s lucky he didn’t get a major or even the gate for the way he two-handed Wallin, and even more lucky that Wallin wasn’t injured because in my opinion a two or three game suspension could have easily been warranted there.

It could have been worse though. True, the team lost the game, its division lead, Erskine was hurt in his first period fight, Semin’s disciplinary issues continued, the team was 0-7 on the powerplay and couldn’t get much going offensively, but the guys who looked the most inept last night weren’t wearing red, white and blue. They were wearing white and black stripes.

Quick Hits

• David Steckel is supposed to be a great defensive center and usually he is. But the Andrew Ladd goal isn’t the first time the team has conceded a goal because Steckel’s been nowhere to be found on the backcheck as an opposing player comes through the slot to pick up a rebound.
• I’m a Capitals fan though-and-through, but Erik Cole’s goal was a thing of beauty.
  
• Two penalties on the same play, both stupid, both unnecessary and both in the offensive zone? Well played Mr. Brashear. Well played, indeed.
• How often do you see an NHL game with 12 powerplays between the two teams yield zero powerplay goals?

Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals
Friday February 8th, 2008, 7:00 PM
TV: CSN
Last Meeting: November 30th, 2007. Caps lose 4-3

Just two days after pulling into sole possession of first place in the Southeast Division the Capitals face their biggest threat to the that title, the second place Carolina Hurricanes. Fans and media talk about the “four point game” any time division rivals meet and a lot of the time it’s just a way to try and hype games. That’s not the case tonight, where a Carolina win means they take the division lead back (albeit with the Capitals sill having a game in hand) and a Capitals win open up three points between the two teams (as well as between Atlanta and Washington) and could perhaps be the start of the Capitals running away with the division.

About the Opponent

Carolina Hurricanes: 26-26-4, 56 points, 2nd in the Southeast Division, 10th in the Eastern Conference.

Team Leaders
Goals: Eric Staal (27)
Assists: Matt Cullen (30)
Points: Ray Whitney (50)
Plus/Minus: Bret Hedican (+10)
Penalty Minutes: Mike Commodore (74)
Fights: Mike Commodore (6)

Random Hurricanes Fact
When the Hurricanes first moved to North Carolina from Hartford they were forced to play home games in Greensboro, not Raleigh as originally planned. As a result the team averaged 9,086 and 8,188 fans per game and its first two seasons.

Random Hurricanes Statistic
Hurricanes goalie Cam Ward’s save percentage has dropped each month this season. From October to January his monthly save percentages have been .912, .907, .899 and .875.

Keys to the Game

Washington
Establish yourselves early. The last time these two teams met, Carolina was in first place and Washington, languishing in the cellar, was an afterthought. Carolina knows just how much ground the Capitals have gained on them and both want to prove that they are the better team. However, if the Caps come out and show just how much they’ve improved Carolina may either lose confidence or panic and be unable to get their game going.

Carolina
Stay out of the box. Carolina has the NHL’s worst penalty killing at 77.0% and since the ‘Canes generate a lot of their offense with the powerplay they’ll be looking to play a man up, something it’s hard to do if you take penalties.

Players to Watch

Washington
Alexander Ovechkin - Ovechkin has been pretty much unstoppable lately and without a shutdown defenseman (or anything approaching it) going against him he should run roughshod over Carolina’s defense.

Carolina
Rod Brind’Amour - One of the most underrated players in the NHL for years, Brind’Amour is a smart two-way player who can still produce late in his career.

Erik Cole - Cole, a U.S. Olympian, is a pure power forward who uses his body well to protect the puck, create chances and deliver big hits. His combination of speed, size and toughness may be too much for the Capitals defense.

Around the (Inter)net

ESPN has a pair of articles on the Capitals: Part III of their season-long series on the team which focuses mainly on Bruce Boudreau and an article about Olaf Kolzig’s future…An update on the new proposed European hockey league that claims it will rival the NHL…More people list the NHL as their favorite sport/league than the NBA, NCAA Men’s Basketball, Men’s Golf, Men’s Soccer, Horse Racing and Men’s Tennis