Capitals 4, Thrashers 7

At the start of the night one end of the Philips Arena ice was occupied by the trendiest up-and-coming team in the NHL, featuring the reigning coach of the year, the league’s best player, and a lineup so deep it boasts Sergei Fedorov and Alexander Semin as guys responsible for secondary scoring. At the other end, a team that found itself in the draft lottery last season, only made marginal improvements in the offseason, and a lineup so thin it featured Jason Williams and Todd White on the first line.

But, as they say, this is why they play the games.

You have to give credit where credit’s due on this one: the Thrashers played the type of game they needed to play, hustling to the puck, keeping Alexander Ovechkin in check, exploiting the Capitals’ weaknesses (goaltending and immobile or inexperienced defense), and taking advantage of their opportunities in the Caps’ end.

But I still think it’s more the case that Washington lost this game than Atlanta won it. Jose Theodore allowed two abysmal goals, Alexander Ovechkin failed to convert on a penalty shot, John Erskine and Jeff Schultz each let themselves get beat on plays that led to goals, and the team gave Atlanta nine powerplays and let them to convert three.

There will be Capitals fans out there concerned not with the fact that the team lost but they way it lost, especially the defensive play. It’s not quite time to hit the panic button yet; this team still has a ton of scoring talent and depth, a good defense, and quality NHL netminders. But I will say that the arrival of Karl Alzner can’t come too soon.

Caps Blue Line 3 Stars
(1) Mike Green – 2 goals, 1 assist, 7 shots
(2) Alex Semin – 1 goal, 2 assists, +1
(3) Tom Poti – 1 assist, 3 shots

Quick Hits

• I’m sure some Thrashers fans will be cry foul about Donald Brashear’s beatdown of rookie Zack Bogosian, but you won’t find any sympathy here for two reasons: (1) if you’re in the NHL, you’re in the NHL, whether you’re 18 or you’re 40 and (2) if you don’t want to have to fight another team’s tough guy, don’t hit an opposing player from behind with twenty seconds left when you’re up three goals.
• I love Bruce Boudreau.  I love Alexander Ovechkin.  I’m still not sure choosing the Great Eight to take the Capitals’ penalty shot was the right decision.  I’d expect Alex Semin or Viktor Kozlov to have a better chance of converting.
• Any Caps fan can tell you that Milan Jurcina has his good nights and his bad nights.  Despite his two shots I’d call this a bad night for Jurcina, who was also a -2.
• The Capitals won only 40% of the game’s faceoffs.  David Steckel, Nicklas Backstrom, Michael Nylander, and Sergei Fedorov were all at 40% or worse.
• New Thrashers bench boss John Anderson must be stressing shot selection.  His team had thirty-one shots on goal and only one shot miss the net.

Washington Capitals at Atlanta Thrashers
Friday, October 9th, 2008, 7:30 PM
Philips Arena in Atlanta, Georgia
TV: CSN
Last Meeting: 3/21/2008, Caps win 5-3.

About the Opponent

Atlanta Thrashers, 2007-08: 34-40-8, 76 points, 5th in the Southeast Division, 14th in the Eastern Conference

2007-08 Team Leaders
Goals: Ilya Kovalchuk (52)
Assists: Ilya Kovalchuk (35)
Points: Ilya Kovalchuk (87)
Plus/Minus: Niclas Havelid (+2)
Penalty Minutes: Eric Boulton (127)
Fights: Eric Boulton (13)

Keys to the Game

Washington
Start fast. The Capitals are clearly the better team and they need to establish that from the outset. Upsets happen when the better team lets their opposition stay in the game under the end.

Atlanta
Make it a long night for Jose Theodore. The season hasn’t even started yet and it’s become cliche to say that Theodore is the Caps biggest question mark and weakest link. But then, just because it’s a cliche doesn’t make it untrue. If the Thrashers want to have any shot at winning their season opener they’ll need to get after Theodore early and stay on him all night.

Players to Watch

Washington
Michael Nylander - On the one hand he’s looked good in preseason. On the other hand, he missed the team’s last 38 games last season and doesn’t have a ton of experience in Bruce Boudreau’s system. Plus he’s 36 years old.

Atlanta
Zach Bogosian - The third overall pick in this year’s draft, Bogosian represents both another attempt at building a contender in Atlanta and promise on defense, an area where the Thrashers have been weak for years.

Capitals 5, Thrashers 3

For better than fifty minutes last night it seemed like the word of the day for Capitals fans would be ‘almost’ and the Capitals seemed to be on the verge of almost picking up a vital road win, almost keeping themselves in the playoffs race, creating chances that were almost goals and almost catching a break as the Ranger almost did the Caps a favor by (almost) beating the Flyers with a third period comeback of their own. But by the time the final buzzer had sounded, it was clear Caps fans would have a very different word on their minds: resilient.

In the first two games of their road trip the Capitals combined to play one good period - the opening frame in Nashville. The recent mini-slump, while distressing, wasn’t particularly surprising given that this team has spent most of this season clawing its way back into contention after it’s horrible start to the season. Given the adversity the team has faced while climbing up the standings over the last several months under Bruce Boudreau and the way things had started to go recently it would have been easy for them to come out in the third with a defeatist attitude, accepting that while they had done well to even get in playoff contention they were up against too much this season. Instead the Capitals came out and made a statement, dominating play for the final frame and outshooting the Thrashers 23-2, and in the process sending a message to the rest of the Eastern Conference that they’re not ready to give up on this season yet.

DMG’s 3 Stars
(1) Alexander Ovechkin - 2 goals, 2 assists, nine shots, +4
(2) Nicklas Backstrom - 2 goals, 1 assist, +3
(3) Mike Green - 2 assists, +3, 7 shots

Picture of the Night
The shot chart for the third period of last night’s game:

Quick Hits

• I hated to see it, but that Eric Perrin pass to Jim Slater that lead to his shorthanded goal was beautiful.
• Jeff Schultz made a great play at one point with Ilya Kovalchuk bearing down on him on a one-on-one, an indication of how much he’s improved this season.
• Steve Eminger wants in the lineup bad. He seems like he’s always looking to make a big and tonight he was forechecking harder than some of the forwards during the third period.
• The Thrashers laid 20 hits on the Caps last night, a number that probably would have been lower had Donald Brashear and/or John Erskine been in the lineup.
• The Capitals racked up 45 shots on the night, led by Ovechkin (9), Viktor Kozlov (8) and Mike Green (7).
• The Thrashers commentators were criticizing Kari Lehtonen for being upset with the end of the game and, to a certain extent, calling out his teammates in the post game interview but I can’t say I blame him. There’s no way you should see 23 shots in a one period when your team is defending a lead.
• That said, Lehtonen should have been called for an unsportsmanlike conduct minor for throwing his stick after the Capitals fourth goal (and an added ten minutes misconduct would have been appropriate as well, although since Lehtonen is a goalie it wouldn’t have had an impact).
• Alex Ovechkin wasn’t credited with a hit.
• Boyd Gordon’s goal was his sixth this season…and his third empty netter.
  

Washington Capitals at Atlanta Thrashers
Friday, March 20th, 2008, 7:00 PM
Philips Arena in Atlanta, Georgia
TV: CSN
Last Meeting: 3/14/2008, Caps win 4-1

For a post that covers similar ground, see A View From the Cheap Seats‘ “Know Thy Enemy“.

After the Capitals’ last game it was apparent that the team was tired, likely both mentally and physically and Bruce Boudreau gave the team Thursday off from practice in an effort to help them clear their heads and come back focused. Having a day away from the rink to collect their thoughts should help the team move on after getting dismantled against Chicago. A win against a struggling Atlanta team would help even more.

There’s no reason the Capitals can’t win against the Thrashers who, frankly, are a bad team. Really bad. Like, getting national attention for how bad they are. Here’s a look at what the Caps’ Friday night opponent has done in their last ten games:

• March 2nd, 3-2 overtime loss to Pittsburgh. At the time this was Atlanta 7th consecutive loss.
• March 5th, 6-3 loss to Carolina. Atrlanta put the Hurricanes on gthe powerplay seven time, contributing to the 37 shots against.
• March 7th, 3-2 win against Minnesota in the gimmick shootout. Atlanta was outshot 39-26, but did go 2-4 on the powerplay.
• March 8th, 3-2 overtime loss to Florida. Were it not for Kari Lehtonen this one would have been close; the Thrashers were outshot 43-27.
• March 11th, 5-2 loss to Colorado. Johan Hedberg allows five goals on 23 shots.
• March 13th, 6-4 win against Calgary. The Thrashers rally from a three-goal deficit to send a tired Calgary team home with a loss.
• March 14th, 4-1 loss to Washington. The Caps dominated the Thrashers, outshooting them 37-12. Only Kari Lehtonen’s stellar play kept this from being a complete blowout.
• March 16th, 3-1 loss to Florida. The Thrashers learned two things the Capitals know all to well: (1) the NHL’s referees aren’t very consistent and (2) Tomas Vokoun is really good.
• March 18th, 3-2 loss to Philadelphia. The score may have been 3-2, but the shots were 47-19 in favor of the Flyers.
• March 19th, 5-3 loss to Carolina. A Slava Kozlov goal with 39 seconds left made this one look a little better on paper and although the Thrashers played one of their stronger games of this stretch, actually out shooting the Hurricanes 34-33, this game was over at the first intermission when Carolina took a 3-0 lead to the locker room.

During this ten game stretch the Thrashers:

• Won one game in regulation, won one game in a shootout, lost twice in overtime and lost six times in regulation.
• Allowed an average of 35.6 shots per game against and averaged 26.1 shots for.
• Were outshot six times, outshot their opposition three times and matched their opponents once.
• Went 6 for 35 on the powerplay (17.1%), but scored powerplay goals in only three games.
• Killed just 29 of 40 shorthanded situations (72.5%).
• Saw their goalies post a combined .896 save percentage.

Simply put, the Capitals should not lose this game. In fact, it shouldn’t even be close.

Capitals 4, Thrashers 1

On the outside of the playoff picture and looking in, the Capitals needed to pick up two points against an inferior (and reeling) Atlanta team last night. The Capitals were up to the challenge, outshooting Atlanta 13-2 in the first period, 16-4 in the second period and 37-12 overall en route to a convincing 4-1 win, picking up a crucial two points on the Carolina Hurricanes, who lost to the Sabres, in the process.

The box score and even the detailed stat sheets don’t tell the whole story for this game - were it not for solid goaltending from Kari Lehtonen and the Capitals hitting posts three or four times, this could have been the March 3rd Bruins game all over again. Can the Capitals carry that momentum into Sunday’s game against Boston? Let’s put it this way - I wouldn’t bet against them.

One last thing - quick show of hands: Who still thinks the Peter Bondra for Brooks Laich and a second round pick trade was a bad idea?

DMG’s 3 Stars
(1) Brooks Laich - 2 goals, +2, 3 hits
(2) Matt Cooke - 1 goal, 1 assist, +1
(3) Alex Ovechkin - 1 goal, 1 assist

Quick Hits

• The Thrashers telecast kept commenting on how great Tobias Enstrom is and how he doesn’t get any Calder buzz because he’s a defenseman. Enstrom’s line last night: -3, zero shots, zero hits, zero takeaways, zero blocked shots, 2 shot attempts blocked.
• Thrashers’ defenseman Garnet Excelby was credited with eight shot blocks
• In addition to his two goals, Brooks Laich led the Capitals in hits with three.
• Sami Lepisto seems good for about one hard hit every game, doesn’t he? Not too bad for a player listed at 176 pounds.
• The Capitals had 18 shot attemps blocked - 50% more than the numbers of shots the Thrashers got on net.
• It would have been nice if Milan Jurcina had followed up his physical performance against the Flames with another one against Atlanta, although he didn’t play poorly by any means.

Atlanta Thrashers at Washington Capitals
Friday, March 14th, 2008, 7:00 PM
Verizon Center in Washington, D.C.
TV: CSN
Last Meeting: 2/13/08, Caps lose in overtime 3-2

About the Opponent

Atlanta Thrashers: 31-33-8, 70 points, 4th in the Southeast Division, 14th in the Eastern Conference

Team Leaders
Goals: Ilya Kovalchuk (45)
Assists: Ilya Kovalchuk (31)
Points: Ilya Kovalchuk (76)
Plus/Minus: Niclas Havelid (+2)
Penalty Minutes: Eric Boulton (91)
Fights: Chris Thorburn (10)

Random Thrashers Fact
Yeah, I got nothing, which isn’t surprising given that the Thrashers are only six years old and the Caps play them eight times this year.

Random Thrashers Statistic
The Thrashers have allowed more goals (239) than any other team in the NHL

Keys to the Game

Washington
Play smart. Atlanta’s not a very deep team and they’re complete mess right now. The only way the Capitals lose this one is if the give it away.

Atlanta
Get lucky. Seriously, Atlanta is really just a complete mess right now and feeling is that the Thrashers just want this season over with so they can replace Don Waddell and start over.

Players to Watch

Washington
Alexander Ovechkin - he leads the NHL in goals, is going up against a fellow Russian left wing who’s second in the league in goals and the team that’s allowed the most goals in the NHL.

Atlanta
Ilya Kovalchuk - with Marian Hossa now in Pittsburgh, Kovalchuk is the Thrashers’ only game-breaking threat.

With the trade deadline less than twenty-four hours away, talk around the NHL has (understandably) been focused on trades. The same is true in the nation’s capital where, for the first time in recent memory, the Capitals are not sellers at the deadline. But does that make them buyers?

Not necessarily. George McPhee has said that he may try and bolster the Capitals depth if he can acquire a player he thinks is worthwhile without giving up too much in the way of assets, be them players for future draft picks. While McPhee certainly has his supporters in this approach, there are more than a couple playoff-hungry Capitals fan who want to see McPhee make a big move to help lock up a playoff spot, and the names Brad Richards and Adam Foote are popping up way more than they should (which is to say, more than just in passing).

To understand my, and I suppose McPhee’s, aversion to making a big trade at the current deadline you have to look at the NHL’s general managers, the frameworks they use and what it takes to be successful versus what usually ends up with the GM getting the boot and a franchise in disrepair.

The best-run NHL organizations have one underlying factor: the interests of the general manager are aligned with the interests of the franchise in the long run. When this is the case a GM can make decisions with the long-term heath and competitiveness of the club in mind which, if the GM is decent at his job, means holding on to high draft picks and prospects while refraining from making unnecessary trades involving headline-grabbing names and overpaying for free agents. Provided such an organization is not hit by injuries and does a halfway decent job of drafting, it should remain competitive year in and year out, while still retaining a deep enough prospect pool that they can make a landscape-changing deal when they need it. Examples of such organizations in recent years include the Ottawa Senators, the Buffalo Sabres and the Montreal Canadiens.

The antithesis of these organizations are those that have general managers who are influenced by something other than the best interests of their team, be it a clamoring fan base, intense media scrutiny or an overbearing owner. These situations almost inevitably breed failure, as GMs continually look for the all-but-unattainable: a solution that will fix all their problems and in readily available (a combination of “fix-all” and “quick-fix”). The results are ugly as teams wind up mortgaging their future, oftentimes to get only marginally better. Caps fans don’t need to look at further than Southeast rival Atlanta and Caps Blue Line’s least favorite currently-employed GM, Don Waddell to find an example for how easily things can go awry for an organization in this situation. Another recent example would be John Ferguson Jr.’s tenure in Toronto.

General managers like Waddell and Ferguson only win as a happy accident and subsequently simply do not win consistently. Rather than being the ones who steer their teams to glory, these GMs are the ones who are taken advantage of by their more savvy peers. As an aside, Paul Holmgrin, in Philadelphia, has proven quite adept at this, taking advantage of David Poile and Craig Leopold’s initial drive to make noise in the playoffs and then to cut costs in Nashville, Waddell’s desperation to make the playoffs and keep his job and Kevin Lowe’s general insanity and embarrassment at not signing Ryan Smyth. Holmgrin was in turn able to spin (1) Peter Forsberg for Ryan Parent, Scottie Upshall, a 1st round pick and a 3rd round pick (2) Alexei Zhitnik for Braydon Coburn (3) Joni Pitkanen, Geoff Sanderson and a 3rd round pick for Jason Smith and Joffrey Lupul and (4) a 1st round pick for Kimmo Timonen and Scott Hartnell.

Back to the matter at hand: this is why I think McPhee has the right approach. I’d rather the Capitals organization be talked about the way Buffalo or Ottawa has been in recent years, not the way Atlanta and Toronto are.

Around the (Inter)net
How much is Mike Green going to cost the Capitals?…The road ahead for the Southeast Division’s team is laid out by The Peerless Prognosticator…Ovechkin’s love story from Aleksandr Ovetjkin…I’ve telling everyone all year: Atlanta is not a threat in the Southeast…What each NHL team is looking for and looking to deal at the deadline…Which NHL GMs are on the hot seat?…”The [NHL] is on pace for its third consecutive season of record revenues and attendance. It has a new cost containing salary cap that allows for massive player contracts. Perhaps most important, the product itself is thriving, with dozens of exciting young players and competitive parity that has 26 of 30 teams within at least five points of a playoff berth with less than 30 games remaining. So why does everyone have a pet project that will “fix” the NHL?”

Capitals 2, Thrashers 3 (SO)

If you fancy yourself a playoff team you simply can’t give points away unless the opposing team has undoubtedly earned them, especially if the opposition is a team in your division. But that’s exactly what the Capitals did last night, losing in a shootout in a game they were initially dominating, outshooting the Thrashers 18-3 in the first period. The Thrashers did an okay job of bouncing back and Kari Lehtonen did have another strong game (39 saves), but the Capitals seemed to get complacent after the first period, assuming they would be able to easily roll over a weaker Thrashers team. Wishful thinking. The Capitals are good, but they’re not good enough that they can take nights (or even periods) off and expect to win, especially in a Conference that no longer has any terrible teams.

Around the (Inter)net
More national attention for the Caps: The New York times has a story about Ovechkin and USA today has a piece about the team’s resurgence under Bruce Boudreau…A (not so brief history) of Capitals deadline deals.

Washington Capitals at Atlanta Thrashers
Wednesday, February 13th, 2008, 7:00 PM
Philips Arena in Atlanta, Georgia
TV: CSN
Last Meeting: 2/2/2008, Caps lose 2-0

About the Opponent

Atlanta Thrashers: 27-27-4, 58 points, 3rd in the Southeast Division, 11th in the Eastern Conference

Team Leaders
Goals: Ilya Kovalchuk (39)
Assists: Tobias Enstrom (29)
Points: Ilya Kovalchuk (65)
Plus/Minus: Niclas Havelid (+7)
Penalty Minutes: Chris Thorburn (83)
Fights: Chris Thorburn (9)

Random Thrashers Fact
In addition to flubbing the eight overall pick in the 2003 draft (where he selected Braydon Coburn over Dion Phaneuf), Don Waddell dropped the ball in 1999 when he had the first overall pick and selected Patrick Stefan. The second and third overall picks: Daniel Sedin and Henrik Sedin.

Random Thrashers Statistics
(1) As of January 24th the Thrashers had six players on their roster that were originally drafted by Atlanta, tied for 23rd in the league. I currently count four: Ilya Kovalchuk, Kari Lehtonen, Tobias Enstrom and Garnet Excelby.

(2) Last season, in an effort to make the playoffs and save his own job, Don Waddell traded Braydon Coburn to the Flyers for Alexei Zhitnik. This season Coburn has 24 points (4+20) in 54 games and is leading the Flyers with a +11 rating, while Zhitnik has 6 points (2+4) in 57 games with a -8 rating and has been a healthy scratch.

Keys to the Game

Washington
Avoid mistakes. As the better team, the Capitals should control this game; this only way the Thrashers will be in it is if they can capitalize on mistakes by Capitals players that lead to soft goals, odd man rushes or penalties and hence give the Thrashers a chance to get in the game.

Atlanta
Play for yourself. Maybe it seems like weird advice, but given that Waddell traded away a readily improving player to a much more effectively run organization last year. If Thrashers players can use the possibility of a ticket out of Atlanta to motivate themselves, they should play very well.

Players to Watch

Washington
Boyd Gordon - after Eric Fehr didn’t do a whole lot with his time on the top line Gordon was moved back up to the second line, centering Tomas Fleischmann and Alexander Semin. Can Gordon make the most of a second chance in an offensive role?

Atlanta
Tobi[as] Enstrom - the rookie blue liner has been perhaps th lone pleasant surprise for Atlanta hockey fans this season, leading the team in assists and accounting for half of all goals scored by the Thrashers defense, and without him the Thrashers might already be out of the playoff race. On the down side, Enstrom is listed at 5′9”, 169, but looks to be about 5′7”, 150, which is a serious lack of size for a defenseman.

Kari Lehtonen - after stopping all 36 shots he saw in his last game against the Capitals, how could Lehtonen not be a player to watch?