As if missing the Capitals incredible run last spring because I live in Atlanta wasn’t bad enough, now I find out that these will be given away to the first 15,000 fans at the team’s November 14th game against the Devils:

If anyone out there is going to the game and doesn’t want their Coach Boudreau bobblehead, I’ll gladly purchase it from you and pay to have it shipped to me in Atlanta. Seriously.

With the the first cuts of training camp posted and the Capitals preseason ready to begin tonight, it’s only natural for the focus to shift from offseason personnel moves like free agent signings and the draft to more pressing issues like the opening night roster. Unlike seasons past, the Capitals 23 man roster for 2008-09 seems to be, barring injury, mostly set, with the only question being whether or not Karl Alzner makes the team.

Given this, Caps Blue Line is taking a look at what some might consider the minutiae of hockey strategy: the lines. From what I can gather from those present at camp (including The Washington Post’s Tarik El-Bashir and The Washington Times‘ Cory Masisak), the Capitals look to be planning to open the season with the following line combinations:

LW-C-RW
Ovechkin-Backstrom-Kozlov
Semin-Fedorov-Laich
Fleischmann-Nylander-Clark
Brashear/Fehr-Steckel/Gordon-Bradley/Gordon/Fehr

Which differs significantly from the lines projected by (and favored at) Caps Blue Line:

LW-C-RW
Ovechkin-Backstrom-Kozlov
Semin-Nylander-Fehr
Laich-Fedorov-Clark
Brashear-Steckel/Gordon-Bradley/Gordon

A large part of the difference seems to come down to broader strategy: while I’ve always been a fan of having a solid checking line, Bruce Boudreau seems ready to start the season with three scoring lines and a group of grinders. This isn’t to say Boudreau’s strategy is a bad one. After all, if you have more than six forwards who can make significant contributions at the NHL level, why wouldn’t you use them?  Of course the issue is just how many of these types of forwards the Capitals really have.

The Caps have up to ten forwards who are capable of pulling top-six duty: the top nine in Boudreau’s combinations plus Eric Fehr. But to me, only five of those forwards (Ovechkin, Backstrom, Kozlov, Semin, and Nylander) have so much offensive talent that they command a top-six (and by association, scoring line) role. The other five are either grinders with some offensive talent (Laich, Clark), prospects who have yet to play up to their full potential (Fleischmann, Fehr), or talents whose best days are behind them (Fedorov).

Despite their respective shortcomings Clark, Laich, and Fedorov are all very good defensive players and Fehr and Fleischmann still have decent offensive upside. Ergo it would seem that the natural solution would be to use Laich, Clark, and Fedorov as a checking line and give the second line right wing spot to either Fehr or Fleischmann. In doing so the Capitals would give themselves both a fantastic checking line that could score as many as fifty goals and give one of their talented youngster in search of a breakthrough an opportunity to get solid minutes with solid offensive players and perhaps make the leap to the next level of development.

But then again, I’ve never won a Jack Adams Award, so maybe I ought to at least give Boudreau’s strategy a fair chance.

Karl Alzner – Capitals management, players, and fans alike are all waiting to see what Alzner can do at the NHL level. That doesn’t mean he’ll be rushed though, and given that the Capitals aren’t in desperate need of a defenseman and seem more than willing to bring their prospects along slowly, I’d bet Alzner starts the season in Hershey…and makes it to Washington before Thanksgiving. Projection: 56 games, 1 goal, 14 assists, 15 points, +3.

John Erskine – Erskine has made a valiant effort to fill an underappreciated role on a rebuilding/up-and-coming team for the last couple of seasons. Despite this, and Erskine’s willingness to fight, block shots, and take the body, his lack of skating ability and puckhandling skill mean he’s the first to lose his roster spot when Alzner’s NHL-ready. Unless the team decides they can get a fair return on Jurcina in a trade, there’s a pretty good chance Erskine will end up being waived in 2008-09 and finish the season either in Hershey or in another NHL uniform.  Projection: 34 games, 1 goal, 4 assists, 5 points, -3.

Mike Green – Green went from being a former first round draft pick with some upside to the NHL’s leader in goals by a defenseman. The challenge now is for Green to prove he can produce at this kind of level year in and year out. It’s probably unlikely Green will get quite as many scoring chances this coming season, but his increased ice time, especially on the powerplay, should mean another productive season. If Green’s play in his own end can come close to catching up with his offensive ability, he will become a true number one defenseman.   Projection: 81 games, 16 goals, 43 assists, 58 points, +6.

Milan Jurcina – Jurcina almost makes the team by default at the start of the season, but with Jeff Schultz and Shaone Morrisonn on the roster as stay-at-home types and Karl Alzner, Sami Lepisto, and Josh Godfrey all in the system, he’ll have to play awfully well to stay in the Capitals long-term plans. For Jurcina this means playing more consistently, particularly in his own end. If he’s able to harness and increase the release time on his monster shot, Jurcina could give the Caps another reason to keep him around.   Projection: 64 games, 4 goals, 4 assists, 8 points, +3.

Sami Lepisto – Lepisto was impressive in the American League last year (45 points, +29 in 55 games) and look decent, if a bit nervous, during his seven game stint with the big club. Like Chris Bourque, Lepisto is a player who probably deserves a legitimate NHL chance but will have trouble finding a spot. Given that he would have to jump over several players to avoid being sent to Hershey, it seems unlikely that Lepisto will be in Washington to start the season. He’ll probably be the first guy the Capitals call when an injury pops up, though.  Projection: 34 games, 2 goals, 8 assists, 10 points, -4.

Shaone Morrisonn – To keen observers of the Capitals last season Morrisonn played an understated but crucial role as the stay-at-home defender whose defensive prowess let Mike Green contribute so much offensively. Morrisonn is likely to continue in this role in the coming season while also seeing significant time on the penalty kill as he tries to hold off Jeff Schultz and Karl Alzner for a role in the team’s top four.   Projection: 75 games, 1 goal, 13 assists, 14 points, +7.

Brian Pothier – Pothier is Washington’s biggest question mark on defense coming into the season, which shouldn’t be a surprise given that it’s still up in the air as to whether he’ll even play. If Pothier is able to come back it remains to be see whether it’s as a member of the Capitals or whether he is traded elsewhere or waived.  Projection: 28 games, 1 goal, 4 assists, 5 points, -2.

Tom Poti – Poti was signed by the Capitals in an effort to help stabilize their blue line and proved offense from the point. The former was certainly achieved – Poti was the team’s most consistent defenseman last season – but Poti came up a little short in the latter, accounting for only two goals and twenty-nine points. With the development of Green, Morrisonn, and Jeff Schultz, Poti will be asked to be a solid second pairing presence and powerplay contributor, the type of role he’s always seemed more comfortable with.  Projection: 79 games, 5 goals, 31 assists, 37 points, +11.

Jeff Schultz – If Shaone Morrisonn was the formerly underrated defensive defenseman who finally got his due last season, Jeff Schultz stands a good chance of being this season’s Shaone Morrisonn. To get to that point he still may need work on his skating ability and be more willing to play the body.  Projection: 82 games, 4 goals, 8 assists, 12 points, +14.

Depth Chart

(1) Mike Green
(2) Tom Poti
(3) Shaone Morrisonn
(4) Jeff Schultz
(5) Brian Pothier
(6) Milan Jurcina
(7) John Erskine
(8) Karl Alzner
(9) Sami Lepisto

Players to Watch

Ready to Break Out
Jeff Schultz. In my humble opinion, Schultz is the most underrated player on the Capitals due in part to his understated of play and in part to the fact that for his size (6’6’’, 221 pounds) Schultz doesn’t play a particularly physical game. He might not be a big hitter, but Schultz is a very solid stay-at-home defenseman who rarely makes mistakes. If Schultz has another good year of development, he could be number three on the Capitals’ depth chart by the end of the season.

It’s “Do or Die” time for…
Milan Jurcina. Like Schultz, Jurcina is a stay-at-home defenseman. The Capitals have, both on their roster and in their system, plenty of guys who can create offense from the blueline in Mike Green, Tom Poti, Karl Alzner, Josh Godfrey, Sami Lepisto, and Brian Pothier (if healthy). Given this, a defenseman with limited offensive upside like Jurcina has to be able to disrupt the opposition’s offense and play mistake-free hockey. When Jurcina is playing well he does both; when he plays poorly he does neither and gives up far too many quality scoring chances, and unfortunately for Jurcina he has far too many games where he plays poorly. If Jurcina can’t become a more consistent player, the Capitals are likely to see him as too much of a liability and cut their ties.

Burning Questions

(1) Will Brian Pothier play?
Pothier’s 2007-08 season came to an end on January 3rd when he suffered a severe concussion on a hit from Boston’s Milan Lucic. Six months later the injury was still serious enough that Pothier wound up in bed for more than a week after attempting to jog “a couple of blocks”. Pothier’s not going to be ready to take the ice before the season starts but if does come back his return would have significant repercussions for the Capitals, affecting the team not only on the ice but also in terms of who may stay and who may be demoted to Hershey, salary cap complexities, and perhaps necessitating a trade of either Milan Jurcina or John Erskine. If Pothier can’t play, there’s a good chance Sami Lepisto will be given an opportunity to take his place as an adequate defender who can provide offensive support.

(2) How good is Karl Alzner?
Alzner seems to be increasingly shaping up as a blue-ship prospect who will one day be a true number one defenseman in the NHL. The question is: how good is he right now? If Alzner’s ready to play at the NHL level on October 10th (meaning he has passed John Erskine on the depth chart), Washington’s defense will be faster, more skilled, and better offensively than they were last season.

(3) Can Mike Green replicate his offensive output from 2007-08?
There was no bigger surprise for the Capitals last season than Mike Green, who scored eighteen goals and fifty-six points after coming into the season with three goals and fifteen points in ninety NHL games. Green’s offensive explosion was the result of a number of factors: a high number of shooting opportunities, Bruce Boudreau’s system, a high shooting percentage, and the solid play of defensive partner Shaone Morrisonn. Green clearly has a ton of talent but it’s somewhat unlikely that everything will go right for him again in 2008-09, so it will be difficult for him to match his scoring totals from last season.

Nicklas Backstrom – After getting his feet wet under Glen Hanlon, Backstrom came alive under Bruce Boudreau, notching 60 points in 61 games. Things should only get better this year for Backstrom as he should be centering Alexander Ovechkin and Viktor Kozlov, as well as the top powerplay unit when the season starts. His goal numbers could take a huge leap if he just starts shooting more. Projection: 79 games, 16 goals, 68 assists, 84 points, +14.

Donald Brashear – I’ve always been a fan of Brashear, who actually has pretty good hands and awareness for a guy who plays the role he does. That said, Brashear is noticeably slower than anyone else on the Caps roster and probably won’t do much other than drop the gloves when necessary. This is likely to be his last season in Washington, and perhaps the NHL. Projection: 71 games, 3 goals, 3 assists, 6 points, -6.

Matt Bradley – Assuming everyone is healthy Bradley could find himself fighting for time on the fourth line with Boyd Gordon, David Steckel, Tomas Fleischmann, and Chris Bourque. Given that Bradley never takes a shift off, bang bodies in the corners, and is a nice middleweight addition in the fight department, I’d expect him to make it into at least sixty games this year. Projection: 63 games, 4 goals, 10 assists, 14 points, -2.

Chris Bourque – Bourque is likely NHL-ready, but given the team’s depth at forward it will probably be difficult for him to get in the lineup. That said, injuries are inevitable and Bourque can play either wing well and even center in a pinch. I expect him to play in about thirty games for the Capitals this season. Projection: 31 games, 5 goals, 3 assists, E.

Chris Clark – Reports are that Clark has recovered well from the groin injury that sidelined him for the majority of last season. If that’s the case the captain will get plenty of playing time, although on what line and with what linemates is unclear. Projection: 75 games, 20 goals, 16 assists, 36 points, +9.

Sergei Fedorov – Fedorov is, without a doubt, the most accomplished player in the NHL who will draw third line duty to start the 2008-09 season. Fedorov upped his game after coming the Caps from Columbus at last year’s trade deadline, so it isn’t unreasonable to think he has one more good campaign left. The only question is whether third line duty plus special teams play will be enough ice time for the sure-fire Hall of Famer. Projection: 77 games, 13 goals, 25 assists, 38 points, +11.

Eric Fehr – He may only have forty-eight games on NHL experience under his belt but Fehr isn’t exactly a fresh-faced youngster. Last season, Fehr’s third as a pro, was about getting healthy more than anything else after a serious back injury threatened his professional career; this season Fehr could land anywhere between lines two and four. Regardless of who he’s playing with or how much ice time he sees, expect Fehr’s big body and tenacity in front of the net and in the corners in the offensive zone to help him make a significant contribution to the Capitals. Projection: 74 games, 16 goals, 24 assists, 40 points, +7.

Tomas Fleischmann – A lot of forwards are going to be fighting for playing time this season with the depth Washington has up front, but no one is going to have to fight harder that Tomas Fleischmann who didn’t produce enough last season to warrant a top-six role and doesn’t have the grit or defensive acumen to play as a grinder. Fleischmann is likely headed for the press box most nights, rotating in when players are injured. Projection: 33 games, 6 goals, 7 assists, 13 points, -4.

Boyd Gordon – As a fan and loyal supporter (as well as hockeyreference.com player page sponsor) of Gordon it pains me to say that it doesn’t look like Gordon will ever become more than a third line player. But, as third line players go, he’s one of the better ones in the league, adept at faceoffs and defensive play and possessing enough skill and discipline that he hardly picks up any penalties. Gordon will likely play on the fourth line in even strength situations and feature heavily on the penalty kill in the coming season. Hopefully that will be enough to retain him as a third or fourth line center once Fedorov leaves. Projection: 61 games, 5 goals, 6 assists, 11 points, +6.

Viktor Kozlov – The Capitals got the prototypical Viktor Kozlov season in 2007-08: bursts of great play, significant periods with minimal production, and a disappearing act come playoff time. Nonetheless Kozlov has good chemistry with Alexander Ovechkin and should spend this season on the top line. Projection: 21 goals, 35 assists, 56 points, +16.

Brooks Laich – Laich gained a fair amount of attention, not to mentioned the adoration of scores of Capitals fans, for his gritty play and willingness to go to net last season. Laich’s versatility means he can play just about any position on any line but his checking ability means he’s probably best suited for the third line. Laich should have another solid season in 2008-09, but he may not reach the twenty goal plateau again: his 17.2 shooting percentage led the Caps last season. Projection: 82 games, 16 goals, 18 assists, 34 points, +4.

Michael Nylander – The subject (for some odd reason) of offseason trade rumors, Nylander has recovered from the shoulder injury that limited to forty games last season. With Backstrom coming off a successful season, Nylander will be asked to fill roles on the second line and one of the team’s powerplay units, which is really what he’s best suited for at this point in his career. Projection: 76 games, 17 goals, 54 assists, 71 points, + 4.

Alexander Ovechkin – The only question for Ovechkin going into 2008-09 is: Can he possibly be better than he was last season? The answer is yes, as the continued development of Nicklas Backstrom could help The Great Eight put up even bigger numbers. That said, what Ovechkin did last year was so impressive that it would be a mistake to expect him to top it. Projection: 82 games, 58 goals, 53 assists, 111 points, +27.

Alexander Semin – Unlike Ovechkin, Semin comes into this season still as a question mark in many ways. Provided he can stay healthy, Semin should benefit from the presence of countryman and mentor Sergei Fedorov and a deeper forward corps to help him to his best season to date. Projection: 73 games, 40 goals, 36 assists, 76 points, -4.

David Steckel – Steckel made the Capitals out of training camp last season on the basis of his defensive play and prowess in the faceoff circle and continued to impress in those areas throughout the season, although the hands that made him a thirty goal scorer at the AHL level never materialized against anyone other than Tampa Bay. Steckel’s expertise in the oft underrated areas of the game should get him plenty of playing time in 2008-09 but with his minutes coming on the fourth line and minimal powerplay time, it’s unlikely his production will increase much. Projection: 67 games, 7 goals, 5 assists, 12 points, -1.

Depth Charts

Left Wing
(1) Alexander Ovechkin
(2) Alexander Semin
(3) Brooks Laich
(4) Donald Brashear
(5) Chris Bourque

Center
(1) Nicklas Backstrom
(2) Michael Nylander
(3) Sergei Fedorov
(4) David Steckel
(5) Boyd Gordon

Right Wing
(1) Viktor Kozlov
(2) Chris Clark
(3) Eric Fehr
(4) Matt Bradley
(5) Tomas Fleischmann

Players to Watch

Ready to Break Out
Eric Fehr. In his return from a serious back injury, Fehr played fairly well for the Capitals after being called up February 4th, although his production was…lacking, to put it lightly. Fehr’s one goal in twenty-three games is a cause for concern, but considering he still popped off forty shots, probably never really got his hands back after missing ten months with his back injury, and is still the 6’4’’, 212 player who scored twenty-two goals in forty AHL games in 2006-07 it isn’t exactly time to write him off just yet. If Fehr gets solid ice time, expect him to put up at least fifteen goals and forty points.

It’s “Do or Die” time for…
Tomas Fleischmann, who started last season on the top line with Alexander Ovechkin and Viktor Kozlov, and ended it as a healthy scratch in the playoffs. There’s no denying Fleischmann has pretty good offensive skills but he’s starting to look more and more like a Jason Krog-eqsue “tweener” who isn’t quite fast enough or big enough to have a meaningful impact at the NHL level. If Fleischmann can’t prove this season that he has value at least in a reserve role, he’s likely going to be out of the Capitals plans as Chris Bourque, Andrew Gordon, Francois Bouchard, and Mathieu Perreault graduate from Hershey.

Burning Questions

(1) Who’s going to be the sixth forward?
Between Ovechkin, Semin, Backstrom, Kozlov and Nylander, five of the six spots on the Capitals first two lines are spoken for. The final spot remains up for grabs, with Eric Fehr, Chris Clark, Tomas Fleischmann and Brooks Laich the most likely candidates. Personally, I’d favor Fehr at this point for several reasons: I don’t see much to choose from between Laich and Clark, Fehr has the most offensive upside, and the thought of a Laich/Fedorov/Clark checking line is music to my ears.

(2) Can the Caps get consistent secondary scoring?
Secondary scoring was the Capitals’ biggest problem under Glen Hanlon last season and although it improved under Bruce Boudreau it remained an issue for much of the year as players counted on to produce were hurt (Chris Clark, Michael Nylander), inconsistent (Viktor Kozlov), or both (Alexander Semin). With the combination of skill and grit the Capitals have, and a third line that will be capable of fifty goals, on paper it doesn’t look like secondary scoring should be a problem. But, as they say, the games aren’t played on paper.

(3) Who’s the fourth line center?
One of the more interesting questions, at least to hardcore Caps fans, that will be answered on opening night is who the pivot is on the team’s fourth line: Boyd Gordon or David Steckel? Each has their strengths: Gordon is a better skater and passer, whereas Steckel is a bigger body and has more of a scoring touch and more offensive upside. If forced to choose between the two, I’d have to with Gordon, the better defensive player, since the team won’t be counting on the fourth line for too much offensive production anyway. An alternative to choosing is to have Gordon play right wing on the fourth line, which would have the advantage of giving the Capitals three excellent penalty killing forward who are also good on faceoffs (Sergei Fedorov being the third) and giving the fourth line two natural centers, helping to allow them to control play.

The NHL has been bombarded with changes in recent years, affecting everything from on-ice play, to financial structure, to player movement. One of the first and, as it would turn out, most significant, changes was the elimination of the tie game. By first introducing the point awarded to teams losing in overtime and later the shootout, the NHL has created a system under which the incentive for teams to try and win in regulation has been diminished, if not destroyed.

Initially, of course, the NHL used a system which allowed ties, where one point was awarded each team in a tie game. Games ending in regulation netted two points for the winner and none for the loser. This system was initially changed for the 1999-2000 season, when teams losing in overtime were awarded one point (the same as if the teams had tied), the idea being that teams were too often becoming reluctant to play any sort of offensive hockey due to the fear of losing the standings point. Theoretically if a team had something to gain and nothing to lose, it would play all-out offense, leading to a wide open and exciting game. This system remained in place for a total of five seasons.

After the lockout the NHL switched to its current system, under which there are no ties, games can be settled via shootouts, and teams losing in a shootout or overtime would receive one point (the winner still receives two). The NHL believed that the elimination of ties and the inclusion of shootouts would create more drama and help the game appeal to more casual fans.

Ever since the introduction of the three point game, the concept has come under fire by fans who oppose it because it breaks with tradition, ague that that losing should not be rewarded, or argue that a game should not be decided by what is essentially a skills competition. Each of these arguments is partially based in opinion and can be argued for or against. What cannot be argued is that the current NHL standings system is bad for the sport because it removes the incentive to try and win a game in regulation.

Consider the case of an incredibly average team, one that has a fifty-fifty chance of winning every game on their schedule and a fifty-fifty chance of winning any shootout they may find themselves in. For this team the expected gain in standings from a game that ends in overtime is one point, but the expected gain in the standings for a game that goes into overtime is 1.5 points, and the team would thus be best served if all of its games were to go into overtime. Theoretically the most effective strategy would be one where a team convinced its opposition to stand around while the clock ticked down until to zero and then went into a shootout. The team would then have an expected record of 41-0-41 and 123 points – easily more than the 115 the Detroit Red Wings needed to wins the President’s Trophy last season. Obviously a team with skilled shootout players could do even better by winning more than half of their shootouts, which leads us to this conclusion: Hypothetically, the greatest team in NHL history could be one that never scores a goal, kills a penalty, or even takes a shot. Hypothetically, the greatest team in NHL history could be one that never actually plays a single game of hockey. Of course, this scenario would never unfold for a number of reasons. But the fact that the scenario exists, even as a hypothetical, ought to be enough to demonstrate that the NHL’s standings system is fundamentally flawed.

The most obvious solution to this problem might be to simply go back to the pre-1999 format of allowing ties. However, this is unlikely to ever happen. Traditionalists may not like it, but the fact is shootouts create drama and excitement, and an awful lot of fans don’t feel like they’re getting their money’s worth if they shell out $200 to take their family to see a tie. The shootout is here to stay. However, this doesn’t mean that the league can’t do anything about its broken standings system.

The solution for the NHL is to switch to a scoring system under which teams are awarded three points for winning in regulation, two points for winning in a shootout or in overtime, and one point for losing in shootout or overtime. This solves the problem of equal overall weight for games by having each game impact standings by three points and returns the incentive to go for a win in regulation by making the expected value of a game ending in regulation 1.5 points, the same as a game ending in overtime. Additionally if the league were to use regulation wins as the first standings tiebreaker, a regulation win would have even more value and thus going for the regulation win would be the best strategy for most teams most of the time.

While I came up with this idea by considering combining the current NHL scoring system and the scoring system generally used in soccer, I can’t claim it as an original idea. In fact, the scoring system I propose is already being used in some professional leagues around the world, most notably in Sweden and Germany. But the point here isn’t necessarily to come up with a groundbreaking new way of doing hockey standings, but to demonstrate why the NHL’s current standings system is flawed and propose an effective solution.

Below are spreadsheets designed to indicate what the league would look like if this system were implemented, using the results from the 2007-08 season.

Here playoff teams are shaded in blue; division winners in yellow. The standings are in the order of the actual 2007-08 standings, using only overall points (i.e. not accounting for divisions).  The biggest winner under this system would have been Carolina who would have gained not only a playoff spot, but a division title.  The biggest losers would have been Edmonton and the Rangers, both of whom played an incredible 25 overtime games last season.

Side-by-side comparison of standings under the current system and the three point system.