7/26, 5:46 PM - Five possible Washington Capitals salary cap scenarios
The final contract question of the Capitals’ offseason was answered today, when an arbitrator awarded Shaone Morrisonn a one-year, $1.975 million dollar contract. The deal itself is more than fair for both Morrisonn and the Capitals, but it does create a salary cap crunch for the team.
Assuming the Capitals retain this roster, with the exceptions of sending Quintin Laing to Hershey, Brian Pothier being on long-term injured reserve, and keeping Karl Alzner with the club, the team’s salary cap situation breaks down as follows:
Forwards: $37,510,962
Defensemen: $14,582,639
Goaltenders: $5,312,500
Buyouts: $250,000
Total: $57,656,101
Salary Cap: $56,700,000
…putting the Capitals $956,101 over the cap.
There are several contracts that could be second-guessed here: Fedorov at four million, Brashear at 1.2 million, and Erskine at all are the ones that stand out the most. But there’s no use worrying about what’s already done. So what are the Capitals’ options moving forward? The answer to that question depends largely on the development of Karl Alzner and the health of Chris Clark. With that in mind, here are several possible salary cap scenarios:
Scenario #1
Key Points: Karl Alzner isn’t ready to play regular NHL minutes come October.
Transactions: Alzner is sent to Hershey.
Salary Cap Implications: Alzner’s $1,675,000 cap hit doesn’t count towards the Capitals while he’s in Hershey, bringing the overall cap number down to $55,981,101, giving the team $718,899 in cap space to start the season. Of course, if the team decides to call up Alzner at a later date part of his cap number will count for 2008-09. But that’s a situation the team deals with when it occurs.
Positives: The team gets under the salary cap without having to move anyone.
Negatives: The Caps’ defense would probably be better off if Alzner is ready to step into the lineup for John Erskine.
Scenario #2
Key Points: Chris Clark isn’t healthy enough to start the season
Transactions: Clark is placed on long-term injury reserve.
Salary Cap Implications: The Capitals would get cap relief from Clark’s $2,633,333 putting them at $55,022,678, $1,110,566 under the cap.
Positives: The team gets under the salary cap without having to move anyone.
Negatives: The team would miss Clark’s leadership, as well as his grinding style of play and secondary scoring skill. Uncertainty about how close Clark might be to coming back would make it difficult to acquire a backup, since Clark’s salary counts at a pro-rated amount once he starts playing.
Scenario #3
Key Points: Alzner is not NHL-ready and Chris Clark is hurt to start the season.
Transactions: Alzner is sent to Hershey and Clark goes on the long-term injury list.
Salary Cap Implications: The team starts out with $4,308,333 in cap relief, giving them $3,352,232 in cap space.
Positives: No one has to be moved and the cap space is enough to acquire a decent player.
Negatives: The team doesn’t start the season as strong as they look like they might. The unsure nature of when Alzner would be ready and Clark’s injury means it’s not obvious how much is available to spend on replacements.
Scenario #4
Key Points: Alzner is NHL-ready and Clark is fully recovered, but the team wants to keep all its players.
Transactions: Alzner is sent to Hershey.
Salary Cap Implications: Same as the first scenario: the team’s cap number goes to $55,981,101 giving them $718,899 in cap space.
Positives: The team gets its salary cap relief and keeps its depth.
Negatives: If Alzner is good enough to play a regular shift in the NHL the team will be weakening itself by not playing him instead of John Erskine.
Scenario #5
Key Points: Alzner is NHL-ready and Clark is fully recovered, and the team wants to keep Alzner in the NHL.
Transactions: There would be a number of options in this case but the most likely (and probably best) moves would be for the team to either trade, waive, or demote both John Erskine and Tomas Fleischmann.
Salary Cap Implications: Erskine’s $537,500 and Fleischmann’s $725,000 come off the books, netting the Capitals $1,262,500 in savings, putting them at $56,393,601, which would be $306,399 under the cap.
Positives: Provided everyone is healthy this scenario gives the Capitals the best twenty-man on-the-ice lineup. Erskine is a borderline NHLer and Fleischmann is behind Clark, Alexander Semin (if he plays on the right), Eric Fehr, Matt Bradley on the depth chart. Boyd Gordon and Brooks Laich are both better options capable of playing on the right side as well.
Negatives: Losing Erskine and Fleischmann would hurt the team’s depth. It’s unlikely the Capitals would get much in return for either player but it’s unlikely Fleischmann would clear waivers as well. Some in the organization think Fleischmann is poised for a breakout season so it may hurt to lose him in the long run.
Of course there are other possible scenarios; someone could get hurt in training camp or someone else could be traded. But these five are probably the most likely.
Erskine > Jurcina
Jurcina had a better plus-minus, more hits per game, only 14 minor penalties (to Erskine’s 36), more blocked shots per game, fewer giveaways per game, had more time on ice in every situation, and is a much better skater and has a very good shot.
Good breakdown.. thanks..
1) There is little doubt that Pothier is done. So you can safely subtract his salary from the cap hit. Also, and others can confirm, the team can carry as few as 21 roster players, so depending on training camp you might see a couple of guys sent down/sent through wavers(Fleischmann) to clear up some space
2) You’d have to think(hope) that GMGM figured Morrisonn’s salary would be near what he received and was prepared prior to this to alter the roster accordingly. Like a good chess player, a good GM should be a few moves ahead and be prepared for all eventualities not have to act, not react to circumstances
3) What a HUGE difference from recent years when the Caps had oodles of cap space and few quality players. From a non Caps perspective the still seem to be missing a vital piece to compete for the Cup; a reliable, nasty/tough defensemen who can play 25+ minutes. Perhaps Alzner might become that guy, but that’s a lot to ask of a first year pro.
@ DMG
As long as the plus-minus is plus I am happy.
I don’t think one goal all year implies a good shot, let alone a very good shot. Jurcina and Erskine both put it towards the goal much more than Poti or Shultz. Putting the puck to the net is something we need more of and it will generate more goals for guys like Laich and Fehr.
Where I think Erskine proved his worth over Jurcina was during the playoffs. Jurcina was terrible, with one specific moment he gave the puck to a flyer that immediately scored. Erskine however took a step back from his usual aggressive stupid game play to become a smarter player; despite his slower speeds (btw Jurcina is no Bure either). All his stats and play was much improved while getting additional ice time. I think Erskine proved that he is a smart player when we need him to be and I am hoping the BB and the management sits down with him and tells him to relax and just play the way he played during the playoffs. I would rather have a guy make mistakes in the season than the playoffs.
It also wouldn’t hurt to have someone else on the ice that can fight considering Bradley is horrible at it and Brash is getting old and is paid too much to be a 4th line sub.
I don’t think one goal all year implies a good shot, let alone a very good shot.
Perhaps I should have phrased it as “a very strong shot”.
Your point about Erskine versus Jurcina are well taken, but I suppose what it comes down to for me is that while I don’t think either Erskine or Jurcina were good enough last year, I think Jurcina’s problems are fixable, while Erskine’s are not. Jurcina, to me, mostly falters when he makes mental mistakes, whether it’s carelessness or bad decsions making. Erskine simply isn’t a good enough skater to be an NHL regular. At 28, Erskine’s skating isn’t going to improve much whereas Jurcina, who’s 25, can still refine the mental aspects of his game.
Maybe it would be different if clearing Jurcina’s salary would provide enough cap relief to the get the team under the $56.7 million mark, but it isn’t. Given that, I’d still rather have Jurcina on the roster than Erskine for next season.