The final contract question of the Capitals’ offseason was answered today, when an arbitrator awarded Shaone Morrisonn a one-year, $1.975 million dollar contract. The deal itself is more than fair for both Morrisonn and the Capitals, but it does create a salary cap crunch for the team.

Assuming the Capitals retain this roster, with the exceptions of sending Quintin Laing to Hershey, Brian Pothier being on long-term injured reserve, and keeping Karl Alzner with the club, the team’s salary cap situation breaks down as follows:

Forwards: $37,510,962
Defensemen: $14,582,639
Goaltenders: $5,312,500
Buyouts: $250,000

Total: $57,656,101
Salary Cap: $56,700,000

…putting the Capitals $956,101 over the cap.

There are several contracts that could be second-guessed here: Fedorov at four million, Brashear at 1.2 million, and Erskine at all are the ones that stand out the most. But there’s no use worrying about what’s already done. So what are the Capitals’ options moving forward? The answer to that question depends largely on the development of Karl Alzner and the health of Chris Clark. With that in mind, here are several possible salary cap scenarios:

Scenario #1
Key Points: Karl Alzner isn’t ready to play regular NHL minutes come October.
Transactions: Alzner is sent to Hershey.
Salary Cap Implications: Alzner’s $1,675,000 cap hit doesn’t count towards the Capitals while he’s in Hershey, bringing the overall cap number down to $55,981,101, giving the team $718,899 in cap space to start the season. Of course, if the team decides to call up Alzner at a later date part of his cap number will count for 2008-09. But that’s a situation the team deals with when it occurs.
Positives: The team gets under the salary cap without having to move anyone.
Negatives: The Caps’ defense would probably be better off if Alzner is ready to step into the lineup for John Erskine.

Scenario #2
Key Points: Chris Clark isn’t healthy enough to start the season
Transactions: Clark is placed on long-term injury reserve.
Salary Cap Implications: The Capitals would get cap relief from Clark’s $2,633,333 putting them at $55,022,678, $1,110,566 under the cap.
Positives: The team gets under the salary cap without having to move anyone.
Negatives: The team would miss Clark’s leadership, as well as his grinding style of play and secondary scoring skill. Uncertainty about how close Clark might be to coming back would make it difficult to acquire a backup, since Clark’s salary counts at a pro-rated amount once he starts playing.

Scenario #3
Key Points: Alzner is not NHL-ready and Chris Clark is hurt to start the season.
Transactions: Alzner is sent to Hershey and Clark goes on the long-term injury list.
Salary Cap Implications: The team starts out with $4,308,333 in cap relief, giving them $3,352,232 in cap space.
Positives: No one has to be moved and the cap space is enough to acquire a decent player.
Negatives: The team doesn’t start the season as strong as they look like they might. The unsure nature of when Alzner would be ready and Clark’s injury means it’s not obvious how much is available to spend on replacements.

Scenario #4
Key Points: Alzner is NHL-ready and Clark is fully recovered, but the team wants to keep all its players.
Transactions: Alzner is sent to Hershey.
Salary Cap Implications: Same as the first scenario: the team’s cap number goes to $55,981,101 giving them $718,899 in cap space.
Positives: The team gets its salary cap relief and keeps its depth.
Negatives: If Alzner is good enough to play a regular shift in the NHL the team will be weakening itself by not playing him instead of John Erskine.

Scenario #5
Key Points: Alzner is NHL-ready and Clark is fully recovered, and the team wants to keep Alzner in the NHL.
Transactions: There would be a number of options in this case but the most likely (and probably best) moves would be for the team to either trade, waive, or demote both John Erskine and Tomas Fleischmann.
Salary Cap Implications: Erskine’s $537,500 and Fleischmann’s $725,000 come off the books, netting the Capitals $1,262,500 in savings, putting them at $56,393,601, which would be $306,399 under the cap.
Positives: Provided everyone is healthy this scenario gives the Capitals the best twenty-man on-the-ice lineup. Erskine is a borderline NHLer and Fleischmann is behind Clark, Alexander Semin (if he plays on the right), Eric Fehr, Matt Bradley on the depth chart. Boyd Gordon and Brooks Laich are both better options capable of playing on the right side as well.
Negatives: Losing Erskine and Fleischmann would hurt the team’s depth. It’s unlikely the Capitals would get much in return for either player but it’s unlikely Fleischmann would clear waivers as well. Some in the organization think Fleischmann is poised for a breakout season so it may hurt to lose him in the long run.

Of course there are other possible scenarios; someone could get hurt in training camp or someone else could be traded. But these five are probably the most likely.

Curious as to whether Chicago fans think $22.4 million dollars over four years is too much for a goalie who has never played more than 52 games in a season? Wondering what the Lightning think of their new owners? Want a fans take on the Brian Burke/Kevin Lowe feud? Then check out the newest feature on Caps Blue Line: the League-wide Blogroll (also accessible via the link in the top-left corner of the site).

This is by no means a complete list of blogs so if you have one you’d like to see added (especially if it’s a Panthers blog) just let me know, either by leaving a comment here, leaving a comment on the permanent page or emailing me at DMG@capsblueline.com.

Atlanta Thrashers
Do the Thrashers Have Large Talons?
Firewagon Hockey

Anaheim Ducks
The Battle of California

Boston Bruins
WickedBruinsFan

Buffalo Sabres
Battle of New York
BFLO Blog
Sabres Edge
SabresFans.com

Calgary Flames
The Battle of Alberta
Five Hole Fanatics

Carolina Hurricanes
‘Canes Country
Red and Black Hockey
Sweet Tea, Barbecue and Bodychecks

Chicago Blackhawks
Second City Hockey
The Third Man In

Columbus Blue Jackets
Army of Ohio

Colorado Avalanche
Colorado Avalanche Talk (aka Avs Talk)
Jibblescribbits
In the Cheap Seats
Mile High Hockey

Dallas Stars
Andrew’s Stars Page

Detroit Red Wings
Behind the Jersey
On the Wings

Edmonton Oilers
Covered in Oil
The Battle of Alberta

Florida Panthers

Los Angeles Kings
The Battle of California
Purple Crushed Velvet

Minnesota Wild
Wild Puck Banter

Montreal Canadiens
Eyes on the Prize
Habs Blog

Nashville Predators
Pred-Joe

New Jersey Devils
Battle of New York
Interchangeable Parts

New York Islanders
Battle of New York
Islanders’ Army

New York Rangers
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Ottawa Senators
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Phoenix Coyotes
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Pittsburgh Penguins
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Vancouver Canucks
Canucks Corner

The Capitals 2008-09 schedule has been released. First up is the Thrashers on road, followed by a home opener against Cristobal Huet and the Blackhawks.

In addition to being available via the Capitals official site and NHL.com the full schedule will soon be up on the Caps Blue Line schedule page.

According to Tarik, Eric Fehr has accepted the qualifying offer extended to him by the Capitals.

Don’t quote me on it, but my understanding of the restricted free agent/qualifying offer situation is that Fehr was in the range where a qualifying offer consists of a ten percent raise, in Fehr’s case a salary increase from $800,000 to $880,000 (assuming the figures given by Sporstnet.ca are correct). UPDATE: Tarik is now reporting that Fehr’s contract is worth $735,000; all the figure here have been changed to reflect that.

If that’s the case, and the numbers on nhlnumbers.com are accurate, the Capitals have about $330,000 $475,000 in cap space counting Brian Pothier salary about $2.83 $2.98 million in cap space excluding Pothier’s salary. Is $2.83 $2.98 million enough to get both Shaone Morrisonn and Boyd Gordon (who George McPhee says is close to signing) under contract? Or will an expendable part, perhaps John Erskine, Tomas Fleischmann or Fehr have to be moved before opening night? The answer to that question likely rides on the result of Morrisonn’s arbitration hearing.

Suddenly July 24th has become the most important date for Caps fans for the rest of the summer.

A pair of Caps signings were announced today: Brooks Laich has signed a three-year contract worth $2.067 million per year and Sergei Fedorov has signed a one-year, $4 million dollar deal.

While each signing makes sense in terms of the fairness of the dollar value, the additional 6.067 million dollars in salary cap space puts Washington in a salary cap crunch situation: according to nhlnumbers.com, the Capitals are now just $1.18 million below next season’s $56.7 million cap - and Shaone Morrisonn, Eric Fehr and Boyd Gordon are all without contracts for the 2008-09 season.

Obviously there’s no way Morrisonn, Fehr and Gordon will all fit under the salary cap given the team’s current salary structure. In fact, as is it’d be unrealistic to expect to even get Morrisonn alone re-signed without exceeding the cap.

The wild card in this situation is Brian Pothier, who is still recovering from a serious concussion suffered as the result of a body check by Boston’s Milan Lucic. According to George McPhee, Pothier is expected to start new season on the long-term injury reserve list, which would prevent his salary from counting against the salary cap as long as he was physically unable to play. If Pothier is unable to play at all next season the team will find itself with an additional $2.5 million in salary cap space. Under these circumstances, the Capitals would have approximately $3.7 million in cap space to devote towards signing their remaining restricted free agents. Even then it may still be a tight squeeze for the team. Just how close a squeeze depends on what kind of contract Morrisonn ends up signing or being awarded, should he wind up going to arbitration.

What makes the most sense for the Capitals to do at this point is to make an effort to get Morrisonn under contract for $2 million or less, which would probably still afford the team enough cap space to re-sign both Gordon and Fehr. Should they be unable to come to an agreement with Morrisonn, the team would be best served to take a “wait and see” approach and wait until Morrisonn’s July 24th arbitration hearing, determine what impact his salary for next season has on their plans and move forward from that point.

If Morrisonn’s arbitration decision makes it infeasible to re-sign both former first round draft picks, it is most likely Boyd Gordon will be the odd man out. The signing of Fedorov means that the Capitals already have three top-flight centers (Nicklas Backstrom and Michael Nylander being the others). That, plus the fact that the Capitals have a effective checking line center and penalty killer already under contract for next season in David Steckel, suggest Gordon would struggle to find much playing time on the team. Additionally Fehr is two years younger, has more offensive upside, is a more physical presence and plays what is arguably the forward position with the least depth for the Capitals.

Should the team still find itself in salary cap trouble if Gordon is dropped, or if McPhee and his staff decide they want to keep both Gordon and Fehr, it is possible a veteran could be waived or bought out to free up space, with John Erskine being the player most likely to be deemed expendable. It is also possible the Capitals could become involved in the trade market, but most of the Caps young talent is going to be off limits and most of the team’s veterans are worth more than what they would bring in via a trade. Thus if any trade were going to occur, it would likely be of the rights to either Fehr or Gordon.

Two news items of interest to Capitals fans broke yesterday, one good and one not so good.

The good news is that in all likelihood both Brooks Laich and Shaone Morrisonn will be back with the Capitals next season:

Tarik El-Bashir just reported that Brooks Laich and Shaone Morrisonn have filed for arbitration. While the arbitration process (pronounced “pro-cess,” of course, for the Canadians out there) includes evidentiary submissions of an often-contentious nature, this comes as welcome news.

By filing, Brooks and Shaone are no longer eligible to sign offer sheets from any other team. So we no longer have to worry about another general manager throwing the Capitals’ whole salary structure out of balance, signing up a fine player like Brooks to a Dustin Penner-style offer sheet, and forcing management to make a painful decision.

While neither Laich nor Morrisonn is likely to steal the show on a team like the Capitals, each brings more to the table that their respective hockey skill: Laich for his ability to play any of the three forward positions and to play in any role and Morrisonn is the anchor that lets Mike Green be the dynamic offensive force he’s capable of being.

In other news, Matt Cooke has signed a two-year, $2.4 million contract with the Pittsburgh Penguins, essentially to serve as a replacement for Jarkko Ruutu. While it has been taken as a given that Cooke would be playing his 2008-09 hockey elsewhere ever since Matt Bradley signed an extension with the Capitals, it’s worth nothing that Cooke will only be making $100,000 more than Bradley next season. Given that Cooke is probably a better penalty killer and has more offensive upside, would it have made more sense for the Capitals to dish out the extra cash and keep him instead of Bradley? Or does Bradley’s physical presence making him the better signing?

Apparently Oilers’ GM Kevin Lowe is not just capable of doing stupid things, but of saying them too:

After a year of enduring the wrath of Brian Burke, Edmonton Oilers general manager Kevin Lowe finally fired back at the Anaheim Ducks’ executive on Friday.

In a candid interview with Edmonton’s Team 1260, Lowe - who stayed relatively quiet each time Burke went after him over the last 12 months - finally let it all out.”Where do I begin?,” started Lowe. “He’s a moron, first of all. Secondly, he really believes that any news for the NHL is good news. Thirdly, he loves the limelight and I don’t think anyone in hockey will dispute that.

Lastly, he’s in a pathetic hockey market where they can’t get on any page of the newspaper let alone the front page of the sports, so any of this stuff carries on.“

Last year Anaheim played to an average of 17,193 fans and 102.6% capacity. Edmonton played to an average of 16,828; 98.4% capacity.

This doesn’t directly relate to the Capitals, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t worth noting. Why? Because this kind of attitude is all too common amongst hockey fans (and apparently officials) in Canada and the northern United States and it’s not only incorrect, it’s detrimental to the league and its followers.

As a hockey fan who grew up in Virginia and has lived in Illinois and Atlanta, I can say that while hockey does not have the same kind of rabid following in the Sunshine Belt that it does in New England or the Midwest, it has more than enough current fans (and more than enough youngsters playing the game) for NHL franchises to not only survive, but to prosper.

That Canadians, New Englanders and Minnesotans are proud of their hockey heritage is understandable and in and of itself not a bad thing. However, to call Anaheim a “pathetic hockey market” when the Ducks have played to better than 95% capacity each of the last two seasons, claim that D.C. is not a good enough hockey market for Alexander Ovechkin although the Capitals have outdrawn the Bruins in seven of the last eleven seasons and some pundits have done, or mock the idea of hockey in Florida even though Tampa Bay hasn’t been lower than 12th in attendance since 2003 and has had two seasons in the top three in overall attendance goes beyond pride and into the realm of willful ignorance.

Of course not every team based in the American South has been successful and those who want to insist that hockey can’t flourish in “non-traditional markets” often point to the Thrashers, Coyotes or Panthers as examples. The issue in these cases isn’t the viability of the market, but rather the on-ice product: Atlanta has made the playoffs just once in its eight NHL seasons and has never won a playoff game, Florida hasn’t been to the playoffs since 2000 and hasn’t won a playoff game since 1997, and Phoenix posted four straight losing seasons before finishing one game above .500 in 2007-08. Poor management and a weak team will kill fan support, no matter what the overall interest in hockey is in a market; one need look no further than the sparse crowds at NHL games in Chicago, Long Island and Boston to see that (other examples include the significant drops in attendance in Pittsburgh and St. Louis when the Penguins and Blues were struggling). Let’s put it this way: if Ken Holland were in Atlanta, Lou Lamoriello were in Miami and Bob Gainey were in Phoenix, those teams would be faring better at the box office.

The strange thing is that, most die-hard Capitals fans must be able to relate to this attitude to a certain degree. While most of the Washington sports community was either mocking or ignoring the Capitals, the die-hards were the ones monitoring prospect rankings, checking statistics from Hershey and assessing the development of players most Washingtonians had never heard of. To have been in that position and then to see people who had derided the Capitals suddenly rush out buy Ovechkin jerseys and pledge allegiance to a team they’d been ambivalent at best towards for years can understandably inspire resentment and frustration, and at first fans who had been with the team through thick and thin were reluctant to let new fans into the club. But the attitude quickly dissipated. After all, the allure of hockey is unquestionable to us die-hards and it’s not the fault of others than they were a little late to the party.

This is the same position that many fans in colder climates and older markets face: the fear that their game will be corrupted by the same contingent that has, in many ways, turned the NFL from a sport to an entertainment novelty (if you don’t know what I mean, you’ve never heard of “Jacked Up!“). After all, the Hockey Night in Canada pregame show consists of commentators discussing the sport calmly in a living room type setting whereas NFL pregame shows often consist of former players shouting over one another and making bad jokes while a throng of already-drunk fans whoop it up behind them until the cutaway to a mediocre comedian’s thoughts on the day’s games. Couple this with the fact that hockey fans are more loyal and as must steeped in tradition as fans of any other sport and it’s not surprise the die-hards are wary of the influence of the sports-loving masses.

But to whatever degree this attitude is a detriment or a positive, the idea that it’s based primarily on geography is asinine: there are die-hards in Miami and Nashville, just as there are bandwagon jumpers in Calgary, Philadelphia and Buffalo. The club of NHL fans is expanding, and that is a good thing for the league and for the sport. The reasonable and mature thing for us long-term fans to do is to welcome new fans with open arms and a willingness to provide insights into the nuances of the game….provided, of course, that the new fans aren’t being drawn into the Sidney Crosby marketing machine and rooting for the Penguins.

The Capitals’ loss of Cristobal Huet and their subsequent decision to replace him with Jose Theodore have immediately sparked intense debate amongst Caps fans, blogging community included. JP of Japers’ Rink contends that Theodore may just be the better goaltender, as does Pepper of the Red Skate. At the other end of the spectrum is Pucks’n’books from On Frozen Blog, who is echoing the sentiments of many disappointed Capitals fans (albeit in a much more reasoned and eloquent manner).

For any Capitals fan it’s impossible to be completely at ease with this personnel change: Theodore has been one of the most notoriously inconsistent goalies in the league over the last decade and it was easy to become attached to Huet for his play during the team’s incredible finish to the season. Despite this, George McPhee and the rest of the Capitals’ front office made the right decision when they elected to bring in Theodore, for two reasons.

The first is that Huet and his agent were apparently jerking the Capitals around during the negotiation sessions:

[McPhee] said the Caps started at the 3 years/$3.7 million and Huet’s camp started at 3 years/$5 million. McPhee said the Caps came up to $4.3 and then $4.6 and finally to $5 million per season, but Bartlett/Huet decided they wanted to test the market.

Other reports indicate that once Huet received his four-year, 22 million dollar contract offer from Chicago he and his agent came back and asked the Capitals to match, which the Capitals declined to do. Although the case could be made that Huet would have been worth the $5.6 million per year he’s getting from Chicago, there’s no reason to assume Huet and his agent were negotiating in good faith at the point they asked the Capitals to match. After all, Huet was given the contract he asked for, chose walk anyway, and then came back essentially asking the Capitals to engage in a bidding war with the Blackhawks. If the Capitals had matched Chicago’s offer why would it be more reasonable to assume Huet would have signed, rather than go back to Chicago’s management and asked for more? If this happens, the risk increases that Theodore signs elsewhere and leaves the Capitals no choice but to vastly overpay for Huet or sign a second-tier free agent like Ty Conklin, Alex Auld or Ray Emery.

The second is that the signing of Theodore to replace Huet may actually make the team better. The point of personnel decisions in professional sports isn’t to get the best player or the biggest name player and it’s definitely not to fall in love with, and overpay for, a player who played well for your team during a two month stretch. Rather, it’s to maximize a somewhat abstract characteristic that could be referred to as “ability to win games at an [NHL, MLB, NFL, etc] level”, “team competitiveness at a high level” or something of the like subject to any given constraints (in the case of the Capitals for 2008-09, that would be the 56.7 million dollar salary cap).

The dollar amount, and hence cap space, the Capitals have freed up by signing Theodore rather than Huet is not insignificant. For each of the next two years, Theodore’s cap hit will be 1.1 million dollars lower than Huet’s, an amount that personnel-wise translates into a valuable depth player like Matt Bradley ($1.1 million), Donald Brashear ($1.2 million), Boyd Gordon ($650,000 in 2007-08) or Milan Jurcina ($912,000) or the majority of a cap hit for a rookie (for example, Karl Alzner’s cap number in 2008-09 will be $1.675 million). Given the Capitals’ current cap-crunch, it could be the difference between retaining Shaone Morrisonn, Brooks Laich and Sergei Fedorov and having to let one of them walk. Three and four years out, when Huet will be 36 and 37 years old, the $5.6 million in salary cap space saved by the Capitals can be used to help finance extensions for Alexander Semin and Nicklas Backstrom. Assuming the Capitals manage their assets well (and recent history suggests they will), Theodore at $4.5 million for two years is better than Huet at $5.6 million over four year both in the short term and long term.

It may very well be the case that Huet is a better player than Theodore, but Theodore is the better signing.

Per TSN:

The Washington Capitals have signed goaltender Jose Theodore to a two-year contract.

Theodore, 31, became an unrestricted free agent on July 1 after playing out a three-year, $16 million contract. The former Montreal Canadien came off a solid 2007-08 campaign, posting a 28-21-3 record and a 2.44 goals against average.

This probably means the Caps weren’t as close to terms with Cristobal Huet as it seemed. As for the on-the-ice product, Theodore is a gamble and has been nothing if not inconsistent. If playing with a young, talented team revitalizes him, this could be a good signing for the Capitals. If Theodore reverts to his 2005 or 2006 form (in which he had a save percentage well below .900) his contract becomes dead cap space.

The important thing for Capitals fans will be to reserve judgment until the terms of whatever contract Huet signs are announced. If it turns out that someone is offering Huet seven million dollars a year and that for the Capitals to match it would have meant they had to sacrifice in other areas, they will have made the right decision. However, if Huet signs a three-year, $15 million contract elsewhere, Washington hockey fans will be left scratching their heads.

In the end, the Capitals basically became the victims of a weak goaltending free agent market. Of course things could be worse: less than 15 minutes after the announcement that Theodore had signed with the Capitas, his former employer (Colorado) announced they had signed Andrew Raycroft.

The good: The Capitals have re-signed one of their key components, agreeing to a four year, 21 million dollar contract with Mike Green:

The Washington Capitals have agreed to terms with restricted free agent defenceman Mike Green.
Sources tell TSN it’s a four year deal with an average annual salary of $5.25 million.

Despite the cries of some GMs in training voicing their opinion on Huet and the Caps, in fact, aren’t that far apart, I’m told. But, as you know, a deal isn’t a deal until it’s signed. If one is struck, look for it to be three-years, as previously reported, in the neighborhood of $5 million per. That’s a lot of money, but the Caps are comfortable with Huet and vice versa.TSN’s comments sections, Green’s contract is a good one for the Capitals: it’s less than ten percent of the new salary cap and more than a fair price given this statistic pointed out by TSN in the same article:

Green, a first round pick by the Capitals in 2004, had 18 goals and 56 points in 82 games last season. The 18 goals led all NHL defencemen, making Green the youngest player to accomplish that feat since Paul Coffey in 1981-82.

The bad: The Capitals still haven’t agree to a contract with Cristobal Huet, despite continued insistence that talks are going well:

Huet and the Caps, in fact, aren’t that far apart, I’m told. But, as you know, a deal isn’t a deal until it’s signed. If one is struck, look for it to be three-years, as previously reported, in the neighborhood of $5 million per. That’s a lot of money, but the Caps are comfortable with Huet and vice versa.

If those numbers are accurate, it’d be surprising to see Huet land anywhere other than Washington. A three-year deal is perfect for the team and Huet is certainly worth five million a year.

Lastly, the sad news:

…the latest on Brian Pothier is neither particularly encouraging (from a hockey standpoint) nor surprising: “Running, weights and skating are a long way off for now, but Pothier is excited that his mind is strong and his body is, albeit slowly, following.”

And while that’s good news in terms of his cognitive skills and whatnot, it’s nearly gut-wrenching to read that a guy who one year ago was among the best-conditioned men in the world was bed-ridden for a week not long ago because he tried to jog a couple of blocks.