Caps Blue Line » 2008 » May

5/28, 1:41 AM - Capitals Re-sign Matt Bradley

The Capitals announced today that they have re-signed winger Matt Bradley to a three year contract. Although the team did not release financial terms, Tarik El-Bashir is reporting the deal is worth $1 million dollars per year.

Though the dollar amount might seem a little high at first glance, the NHL’s continued growth in revenues has people projecting a $56.3 million cap for 2008-09 and the salaries of role player are growing accordingly: Aaron Asham (NJ) made $700,000 in 2007-08, and should make more as an unrestricted free agent in a market with a salary cap that has increased by 12%. Anaheim’s Travis Moen is under contract for $925,000 next year and Steve Begin (MTL) is slated to make 1.3 million.

Bradley, like the aforementioned players, is being paid not only for his grinding style of play and occasional offense, but for his penalty killing abilities. As a team Washington was 25th in the league in shorthanded situations last year and although David Steckel and Boyd Gordon should be back for the 2008-09 season, penalty killing experts Sergei Fedorov and Matt Cooke are unrestricted free agents on July 1st. Bringing back Bradley assures not only that the Capitals have depth and grit on the front line, but that they can shore up what was arguably their biggest weakness in 2007-08.

Bradley’s contract does have the potential to become problematic. While a commitment of one million dollars a season is by no means crippling, it is a significant enough sum to cause problems under certain circumstances and while the Capitals will benefit from having Bradley, his presnence isn’t worth significant sacrifices in other areas.

5/19, 3:17 PM - State of the team: Goaltending

As we continue to wind down from the 2007-08 season, Caps Blue Line will take a look at the state of the team, by position, looking forward to 2008-09. Please note that depth charts are based on my opinion, not where the players actually stand in the organization.

Top Performer: Cristobal Huet. Maybe a low hurdle to a certain extent, but Cristobal Huet would have been the top performer on a lot of teams this season, going 32-14-6 with a .920 save percentage (tied for sixth in the NHL) and a 2.32 goals against average (tied for ninth in the league). Huet was also at his best (11-2, .936, 1.63) with the Capitals.

Underachiever: Olaf Kolzig. Kolzig started strong and did a bit to redeem himself after his playing time was reduced in the season’s second half, but for much of the year he was one of the league’s worst netminders statistically and was, by his own admission, allowing a soft goal in most of his starts.

Underrated: Cristobal Huet. Only three to chose from means that this label goes to Huet, who has the second best post-lockout save percentage in the NHL.

One to watch: Daren Machesney. Until this season, Machesney’s resume was not all that impressive. Picked 143rd overall in 2005, Machesney split his first professional season (2006-07) between South Carolina (ECHL) and Hershey (AHL), putting up save percentages of .888 and .887 and GAA’s of 3.30 and 3.18. In 2007-09, Machesney performed significantly better for Hershey, posting a .916 save percentage, a 2.55 GAA and a record of 22-10-2. A good showing in 2008-09 would go a long way towards establishing Machesney as a legitimate NHL prospect, while a poor showing would relegate him to the “career AHLer” ranks (for the time being at least).

Under Contract for 2008-09: Brent Johnson, Daren Machesney, Michael Neuvirth, Semen Varlamov
Restricted Free Agents: none.
Unrestricted Free Agents: Cristobal Huet, Olaf Kolzig

Depth Chart
(1) Brent Johnson
(2) Daren Machesney
(3) Semen Varlamov
(4) Michael Neuvirth

The Good: Cristobal Huet played extremely well after being traded to the Capitals, while Brent Johnson still looks like a very good reserve goaltender. Prospect-wise, both Neuvirth and Varlamov had solid years and should be ready for their first pro season in North America, and Machesney had a better season than anyone could have expected.

The Bad: Olaf Kolzig had the worst year of his career statistically and is out for good in D.C.; Huet’s playoff performance did not match what he was able to do for the Capitals down the stretch in the regular season.

2008-09 Outlook: At the moment, the outlook for the Capitals goaltending situation for next season isn’t very good - Johnson, a one time NHL starter, is the only goalie under contract with any NHL experience and none of the other netminders inked for next year are NHL ready. As Capitals’ fans already know, how the team shapes up in the crease for next season is primarily contingent on George McPhee being able to get Huet under contract. If Huet decides to stay in D.C. the team should feel very comfortable with their goaltending situation; if not things will get very messy, and the Caps would likely be forced to take a chance on a less-than-desirable goalie from an unimpressive free agent pool and hope for the best.

5/9, 4:05 PM - Kolzig says he’s played his last game for the Caps

The news is making the rounds pretty quickly in the Capitals’ blogosphere, but for anyone who hasn’t seen it, Tarik El-Bashir of the Washington Post is reporting that Olaf Kolzig will not be returning to the Capitals:

Olie Kolzig, the Washington Capitals goaltender through some of the best and worst moments in the team’s history, confirmed yesterday what had been suspected for weeks: He has played his final game for the franchise that drafted him in 1989.

I don’t think there’s all that much I can add about what Kolzig has meant to the Capitals both on the ice, where he backstopped the team the 1998 Stanly Cup Finals and won a Vezina in 2000, and off the ice, where he was the face of the organization for more than a dozen years, an active member of the Washington area community and the NHL’s 2006 recipient of the King Clancy Memorial Trophy, awarded “to the National Hockey League player who best exemplifies leadership qualities on and off the ice and who has made a significant humanitarian contribution in his community”. I do want to make two notes in the wake of this article.

The first is that Kolzig is most likely headed for retirement. The odds of anyone wanting to hand Kolzig their starting netminder job are slim; the odds that Kolzig would be willing to fight for the number one role, or serve as a backup on a team other than the Capitals are even smaller. As a Capitals fan who grew up playing goalie, it’d be hard for me to see Kolzig toiling for another club, but as someone who admires Kolzig as a player and a person it’d be even more difficult to see him forced out of the league before he’s ready. Hopefully Olie is given the chance to do what he wants to this winter.

The writing was on the wall with regards to Kolzig’s future as a Capital, so that he won’t be bad isn’t particularly surprising. What is surprising is the fact Kolzig seems poised to move out of the D.C. area, as his house is already up for sale. Like many Capitals fans, I had hoped Kolzig would remain a part of the Capitals organization after his playing days were over in a public relations, coaching or other front office role. Kolzig already has a front office role though, as owner of the WHL’s Tri-City Americans, whom he helped coach during the NHL and lockout and had spoken of returning to when his playing days were over. Perhaps a return to Kennewick, Washington is in the cards for Olie if he doesn’t get an NHL offer he likes. It would be nice if Kolzig would at least consider returning to the Capitals in a non-playing capacity. At this point, it’s hard to imagine hockey in Washington without him.

5/9, 1:07 PM - State of the team: Defensemen

As we continue to wind down from the 2007-08 season, Caps Blue Line will take a look at the state of the team, by position, looking forward to 2008-09. Please note that depth charts are based on my opinion, not where the players actually stand in the organization.

Top Performer: Mike Green. Green’s 18 goals, 38 assists and 56 points were all best among Capitals’ defensemen and good enough for first among all NHL defensemen in goals and seventh in points. In addition to his offensive prowess, Green was a +6 for the season and led Washington defensemen with 53 takeaways.

Underachiever: Milan Jurcina. After the way he finished last season, there was hope Jurcina could become an imposing stay-at-home presence. However his nconsistency and penchant for poor decision making made for a frustrating season, and even resulted in the towering blueliner being a healthy scratch on several occasions.

Underrated: Tom Poti. Poti’s offensive output wasn’t what the Capitals and their fans had hoped for in 2007-08 (2 goals, 29 points in 71 games), but the veteran was the team’s most consistent defenseman in the defensive zone, was second in +/- among defenseman (behind also-underrated Jeff Schultz), was second among defensemen in takeaways and led the team in blocked shots.

One to watch: Karl Alzner. Alzner was the Western Hockey League’s MVP in 2007-08 and captained both his WHL team (Calgary) and the Canadian Junior team. The consensus seems to be that Alzner’s future in the NHL is very bright - the only question is how good he’ll be in 2008-09; the answer has huge ramifications for the quality of the Capitals’ defense corps.

Under Contract for 2008-09: Karl Alzner, John Erskine, Milan Jurcina, Sami Lepisto, Brian Pothier, Tom Poti, Jeff Schultz.
Restricted Free Agents: Steve Eminger, Mike Green, Shaone Morrisonn.
Unrestricted Free Agents: none.

Depth Chart
(1) Mike Green
(2) Tom Poti
(3) Shaone Morrisonn
(4) Jeff Schultz
(5) Brian Pothier
(6) Steve Eminger
(7) Karl Alzner
(8) Milan Jurcina
(9) Sami Lepisto
(10) John Erskine
(11) Josh Godfrey
(12) Joe Finley

The Good: Mike Green’s season pretty much speaks for itself. Shaone Morrisonn has developed into a solid defensive defenseman (and clicks very well with the freewheeling Green), Tom Poti is consistent and contributes at both ends. With Karl Alzner, Viktor Dovgan, Sami Lepisto and Joe Finley in the pipeline and Steve Eminger, Jeff Schultz and Milan Jurcina all under 25, the is a lot of untapped potential. Each Capital defender who played more than 20 games in 2007-08 finished with a positive plus-minus rating.

The Bad: The group lacks a true shutdown defenseman. It’s a role Poti and Morrisonn can play fairly well, but neither is good enough go up against the league’s best forwards, a problem that can become especially significant in the goal-scoring talent-laden Southeast Division. The defense’s biggest bodies have significant questions to answer about their play in general, specifically John Erskine’s skating and stick handling, Milan Jurcina’s decision making and Jeff Schultz’s toughness, preventing them from using their frames as effectively as they otherwise could. The combination of so many players still in development and a career-threatening injury to Brian Pothier means the depth chart is very unsettled.

2008-09 Outlook: Despite all the questions that loom for George McPhee and Bruce Boudreau about the Capitals’ defensive unit, the outlook for next season is good. On one hand only four players who are expected to be back next year have proven themselves as legitimate top six defenders: Mike Green, Tom Poti, Shaone Morrisonn and Jeff Schultz. On the other hand, Steve Eminger played well in the playoffs, Sami Lepisto had four goals, 41 assists and a +29 rating in 55 games in the AHL this year, Karl Alzner looks more like a can’t-miss prospect every day and Milan Jurcina and John Erskine already have significant NHL experience. The Capitals are only going to need to fill three roster spots (assuming Brian Pothier does not return and barring any free agent signings) and they seem to have the depth to do so already - even if it’s not entirely clear what the pecking order is going to be on opening night.
If the Capitals do need to make an addition at defense, it would be, as often talked about by Caps’ fans, a big, physical, stay-at-home defender who could intimidate opposing forwards and match up with just about anyone in the league; someone along the lines of Mike Komisarek, Robyn Regehr or former Capital Brendan Witt. Although it would be nice for the Caps to have this kind of presence along their blue line, it’s not essential, as the continued development of defensive prospects means that the Capitals defense should be better than the unit that allowed fewer than two goals a game after the trading deadline in 2007. This, along with the high price of physical defenseman who can keep up with the pace in the post-lockout NHL, means the Capitals would likely be wise to go into the season with the players they have now and try to add toughness on the blue line via a late season trade if it becomes an issue.

5/5, 2:08 PM - State of the team: Forwards

As we continue to wind down from the 2007-08 season, Caps Blue Line will take a look at the state of the team, by position, looking forward to 2008-09. Please note that depth charts are based on my opinion, not where the players actually stand in the organization.

Top Performer: Alexander Ovechkin. He’s going to win the league MVP, so naturally he was the Caps’ best forward this year.

Underachiever: Tomas Fleischmann. Fleischmann was impressive enough in camp to win a spot across from Alex Ovechkin on the top line, but wound up only 10 goals and 30 points this year, and was scratched for several games in the playoffs.

Biggest Surprise: Brooks Laich. When Laich was acquired for Peter Bondra, he was pitched as a versatile depth forward with the potential to contribute more if everything came together. Given his attitude and work ethic, it isn’t surprising Laich turned into a solid contributer. What is surprising is that he managed to do so at 24.

Underrated: Eric Fehr. Fehr’s a player who’s hard to evaluate objectively, with his career already marked by significant injury woes and the stigma of being selected one pick before Ryan Getzlaf on him. Fehr was able to bring an important presence to the Capitals though, using his big frame to crash the net and create havoc in the opponent’s end. He won’t ever be Getzlaf, but once Fehr gets his hands back and finishes filling out his frame, he’ll be a very solid forward.

One to watch: Eric Fehr. I think Fehr, more than any other Capitals forward, is poised for a breakout year in 2008-09.

Under Contract for 2008-09: Nicklas Backstrom, Donald Brashear, Tomas Fleischmann, Viktor Kozlov, Quintin Laing, Michael Nylander, Alexander Ovechkin, Alexander Semin, David Steckel.
Restricted Free Agents: Eric Fehr, Boyd Gordon, Brooks Laich

Unrestricted Free Agents: Matt Bradley, Matt Cooke, Sergei Fedorov

Depth Charts

Left Wing
(1) Alexander Ovechkin
(2) Alexander Semin
(3) Chris Bourque
(4) Donald Brashear
(5) Quintin Laing

Center
(1) Nicklas Backstrom
(2) Michael Nylander
(3) Brooks Laich
(4) Boyd Gordon
(5) David Steckel
(6) Kyle Wilson
(7) Mathieu Perreault

Right Wing
(1) Viktor Kozlov
(2) Chris Clark
(3) Eric Fehr
(4) Tomas Fleischmann
(5) Andrew Gordon
(6) Ben Clymer
(7) Francois Bouchard

The Good: The Capitals are one player with breakout season away from having a very impressive first two lines with Backstrom, Ovechkin, Kozlov, Nylander and Semin all being legitimate top six players at the NHL level. Fortunately, the Capitals now have enough forward depth that at least one of Eric Fehr, Books Laich, Chris Clark and Tomas Fleischmann should be to pull top six duty next season. The Capitals depth also shows in two other, oft underrated areas: defense and versatility. Boyd Gordon, Chris Clark, David Steckel, Brooks Laich and Quintin Laing are all good defensive forwards, even if none are Selke-worthy; in terms of versatility, Capitals have at least six forwards who spent significant time in the NHL who are capable of playing center and nearly all the Caps’ forwards can play more than one position. The key player here is Brooks Laich who is capable of providing a solid defensive presence and the ability to chip in on offense from any of the three forward positions.

The Bad: While the Capitals have a number of good defensive forwards, the checkers could stand to chip in more on offense (Steckel, Gordon and Laing had a combined 13 goals, including several empty netters, in a combined 173 games). Other than Ovechkin, none of the Capitals top five forwards play a very physical game.

2008-09 Outlook: With five of their top six spots filled, a versatile forward corps and plenty of high-potential players in the mix, the Capitals’ outlook for next season is excellent. The potential of having Chris Clark, Alexander Semin and Michael Nylander for the entire season and the continued development of Backstrom, Fehr and Fleischmann, means the Capitals have a legitimate shot at leading the league in scoring in 2008-09 (if you think that’s crazy, consider that the Capitals averaged 3.13 goals per game under Boudreau, a rate that would have them tied for second in the league this season). In terms of defense, the Capitals should look to add one or two more players, someone who can agitate opponents, someone who can play a physical game and back it up by dropping the gloves and someone who can kill penalties. These roles could be filled by re-signing Matt Cooke and Matt Bradley. If they chose to leave Washington there will be other options in the free agent market - I personally favor Adam Hall and Aaron Asham; if the Capitals want to avoid bidding on free agents, Chris Bourque is likely ready to step in to a grinder role.  Given that the team only has this one need at the forward position, McPhee should not have too much difficulty filling it.