Or: Why Things Might Not be as Bad as they Seem

With their Sunday afternoon loss to the Penguins, the Capitals’ playoffs hopes seem to be in a precarious position - they’re seven points out of the division lead (with a game in hand) and six points out of the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference (held by Philadelphia, which has a game in hand on the Caps). I’ll admit that it doesn’t look good, but I don’t think it’s as bleak as it might seem at first, for a couple of reasons:

1. The “I really want the Capitals to make the playoffs and it’s clouding my reasoning/relentless optimism” reason.

The Capitals are seven points behind the Hurricanes for the Southeast Division lead. It’s certainly possible the Capitals win the game they have in hand; perhaps even likely given that they’re winning more often than not these days. That would cut the deficit to five points. The Capitals also have two games remaining against Carolina. If (and that’s a big ‘if’) the Capitals can win those two, it pulls them to within one. It’s still an uphill battle no doubt, and while the Capitals don’t control their own destiny in terms of pulling ahead of the ‘Canes they do control their destiny in terms of getting within one point.

2. The Schedule

The Florida Panthers are 32-31-8, the Tampa Bay Lightning are 26-35-8 and the Atlanta Thrashers are 30-32-8 and in a complete tailspin. The Capitals play these teams a combined six times in their last twelve games. That’s 12 points the Capitals should have which means it should be an easy road to 84 points, with 12 more still up in the air. The Capitals haven’t performed they way they should have against the Southeast Division this season but the Capitals are also clearly a better team than Florida, Tampa or Atlanta.

It’s not as if the road the playoff will be easy one for the Capitals and there’s one problem that still stands in their way: The Numbers.

Glen Hanlon was fired 20 games into this season, with the Capitals at 6-13-1 (13 points). Since Bruce Boudreau took over the team has gone 26-17-7. That’s 1.18 points per game. The Capitals are currently sitting at 70 games played and 72 points. If the team can pick up points at the same rate during their last 12 games as they have in the 50 Boudreau has coached so far, they’ll wind up with 14, giving them 86 for the season. Put that up against what the Capitals are looking up at (this image was hard to fit in the post, but click on it and it will open in a might more viewable size),

…and things look pretty intimidating. If all the teams ahead of the Capitals keep their current pace, the Caps would need to take 21 of the remaining 24 points on their schedule. Of course, that won’t necessarily be the case. The odds of the Rangers, Bruins or Flyers stumbling down the stretch are pretty decent. Each team is far from bulletproof and each has struggled mightily at times this year, and that’s what would need to happen for the Capitals to have a shot at getting in as an eighth seed.

It’s for this reason the Capitals best bet for a playoff berth is to catch the Hurricanes. It’s not uncommon to hear coaches and players say that all they want is to be in control of their own destiny. The Capitals don’t quite have that advantage…but with the chance to pull within one point simply by winning three key games, it’d be hard to be any closer.