For anyone who may not know, the Capitals and a number of the more prominent Capitals bloggers (i.e. not me) have banded together to put together a fundraiser for the Wilson High School hockey team. Wilson is the only public high school in the District with a hockey team. On Frozen Blog has the best explanation. If you live in the D.C. area, try and make it down. If not, there is also an option to donate online.

With two of their three new acquisitions in the lineup, the Capitals look to gain some ground in the standings against Martin Brodeur and the New Jersey Devils. New lines are an inevitability when a team makes personnel changes and here’s what the Capitals are expected to come out with, according to Tarik El-Bashir:

Ovechkin-Backstrom-Kozlov
Semin-Fedorov-Laich
Fleischmann-Gordon-Fehr
Brashear-Steckel-Bradley/Laing

Very solid job on the part of Bruce Boudreau. My initial reaction was that there’s not a clear shutdown/checking line with these lines, which is always the first thing I look for since I’m a big married to the idea. However, these top three lines can all score and are all sound defensively as all have good two-way centers (plus Alex Ovechkin and Brooks Laich are very good defensive players as well). Despite how good the lines look right now, my guess would be that when Matt Cooke arrives Eric Fehr will be a scratch, Tomas Fleischmann will be moved up to the second line and Laich will move to the third line, creating a checking line with Cooke and Gordon. Or maybe I just really like the idea of having a checking line.

Washington Capitals at New Jersey Devils
Friday, February 29th, 7:00 PM
Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey
TV: CSN
Last Meeting: 2/25/08, Caps lose 2-1 in overtime

About the Opponent

37-21-6, 80 points, 1st in the Atlantic Division, 1st in the Eastern Conference

Team Leaders
Goals: Zach Parise (25)
Assists: Zach Parise (30)
Points: Zach Parise (55)
Plus/Minus: Paul Martin (+20)
Penalty Minutes: David Clarkson (153)
Fights: David Clarkson (17)

Random Devils Fact
Martin Brodeur’s 48 wins in 2006-07 set a single-season record.

Random Devils Statistic
Total number of professional hockey games played by Devil’s general manager Lou Lamoriello: 0.

Keys to the Game

Washington
Smart decisions. The Devils generate most of their offense on the counter attack and powerplay. If the Capitals can avoid turning the puck over and taking dumb penalties it will go a long way towards snuffing out New Jersey’s attack.

New Jersey
Puck possession. The Capitals defense still isn’t great, but their forwards are smart and explosive. The best way to keep the Capitals off the board will be to keep the puck in their zone.

Players to Watch

Washington
Steve Eminger. Nah, not really, I just wanted to come up with the most random guy I could think of to raise some eyebrows, because every Caps fan knows the players to watch tonight are Sergei Fedorov and Cristobal Huet.

Devils
Zach Parise - Parise is a prototypical post-lockout player in that he doesn’t have great size but does have great skill and skating ability; he’s the prototypical Devils player because he’s smart, good defensively and plays for the team. Plus he leads the team in goals, assists and points so…he’s probably a guy the Caps should keep an eye on.

Around the (Inter)net
The Hurricanes lost last night; the Capitals now have three games in had and are five points back meaning that they can get the division lead back by winning each of the games in hand. Perhaps the Capitals biggest challenger for feel-good story of the year, Darwin Head…Kozlig again talks retirement…The Capitals get a A- from Yahoo! and an 8.5 from ESPN for their deadline moves.

Capitals 4, Wild 1
One of the worst fears a general manager has when he bring in new players at the trade deadline is that it’s going to have an adverse effect of his team’s chemistry. Well none of the Capitals new additions have arrived yet, but the team certainly seemed enthused as they came out and played one of their most focused and crisp games in recent memory, picking up a 4-1 behind a four point effort from Brooks Laich.

The addition of the several new players was not entirely without controversy however, as the issue of where the acquisition of Cristobal Huet puts current Capitals goalies Olaf Kolzig and Brent Johnson. Despite what Versus commentators Keith Jones and John Vanbiesbrouck seem to think, I doubt Olie is still the number one in Washington as I just can’t see a team trading for a goalie who’s tied for 11th in the league in save percentage and going to become a free agent with the intention of having him back up the goalie with the worst save percentage in the entire league (rank: 43rd).

I also doubt Jones’ assessment that Kolzig would be a given a chance to show he’s the number one and that Kolzig would step up his game under competition and pressure. Kolzig has had the chance to prove he’s still a number one all season, and has even seen the bulk of the playing time although his save percentage has languished at or near the bottom of ranked goalie for much of the season. I doubt he will turn things around with the acquisition of Huet - if Kolzig were going to elevate his game at a crucial time, he most likely would have already done it as the team fights for a playoff spot. And again, despite what Jones seemed to think, I don’t think Olie is going to get a ton more chances for what he has done for the team over the years. And that’s not a problem

If Cal Ripken still wanted to play baseball, would the Orioles put him in the lineup every day based on his past achievements? If Darrell Green wanted to play football would the Redskins still send him out to cover the opposing teams number one receiver? If Peter Bondra still wanted to play in the NHL would the Capitals play him on the first line and ask him to quarterback the powerplay? Of course not. No matter how great a player is in their prime, their comes a point at which they’re no longer good enough to be their team’s go-to guy, or even to earn a place in the starting lineup. I believe Kolzig has reached that point and while the Capitals should still treat him with class, retire his number and offer him a front office job when he officially hangs them up, it doesn’t make sense, nor is it fair to the fans or the other players, to put the team in a position where it’s more likely to lose just to pay back one man for what he has done for the team. It makes sense to admire, respect and have sympathy for Olaf Kolzig as a man, but it should affect hockey personnel decision to a small degree. George McPhee knows this, and I’m willing to bet Bruce Boudreau does too.

DMG’s 3 Stars
(1) Brooks Laich - 2 goals, 2 assists, +4
(2) Olaf Kolzig - 34 saves on 35 shots (.971 save percentage)
(3) Eric Fehr - 1 goal, +4

Quotable

“I was shocked, because I didn’t think it was broken, the goaltending here”

-Brent Johnson on the trade for Cristobal Huet. The Capitals are ranked 29th of 30 NHL teams in the save percentage this season.

Quick Hits

• In addition to Laich and Fehr, Tomas Fleischmann was a +4.
• What was with Vanbiesbrouck’s weird obsession with trying to convince everyone that Alex Semin and Alex Ovechkin look a whole lot alike?
• I’ll never understand how the NHL keeps track of hits, because the scoresheet says the Caps only had 10 (led by Milan Jurcina’s three).
• The Capitals were very crisp, rebounds didn’t seem to pose the same threat, there weren’t a lot of good chances for the Wild right in the front of the Caps net…and John Erskine was a healthy scratch.  Somehow I don’t think this is a coincidence. 
• Each team had as many fighting penalties as all other penalties.

All photos AP/Getty by way of Yahoo!

Despite warnings that he might not be terribly active at the deadline Capitals general manager George McPhee made three trades this afternoon, while still holding keeping his word that he wouldn’t give up too much in the way of players or picks.

As a primer, here’s an breakdown of the changes the Capitals made:

Acquired:
Matt Cooke
Sergei Fedorov
Cristobal Huet

Shipped Out:
2009 2nd round draft pick
Matt Pettinger
Rights to Ted Ruth

At face value, the Capitals look much improved. But are these moves really going to help the team as much as it seems like they should on paper? To answer, let’s take a look at each trade individually.

A 2nd round draft pick in 2009 to the Montreal Canadiens for Cristobal Huet

Initial Reaction: Wow. Shocking for a few reasons: Huet wasn’t supposed to be moved, the Caps are apparently willing to spell Olaf Kolzig as their starting goalie, and it’s odd that Huet was had for only a second round pick.

Pros
(1) Cristobal Huet is a good goalie. Really good. Like top ten in the NHL good.
(2) Huet’s save percentage is .916
(3) Olaf Kolzig’s save percentage is .888
(4) Brent Johnson’s save percentage is .908
(5) Acquiring Huet now gives the Caps a chance to show off their young talented core to him and gives them the jump on negotiating a contract with the free-agent-to-be.
(6) He only cost a second round pick.
(7) Coming from le bleu, blanc et rouge of Montreal, Huet’s pads already match the Capitals’ uniforms.

Cons
(1) Huet is still a free agent come July 1.
(2) How will Kolzig handle his demotion?
(3) Kolzig deserved better. I’m not saying the Capitals shouldn’t have made this trade, but it is unfortunate for Olie the way this season has played out.

Grade: A. The Capitals addressed their biggest weakness even if it meant possibly offending a portion of their fan base, picked up a very good player and have a chance to build with this move if they can re-sign Huet. No other goalie nearly this good was available and it only cost the Capitals a second round pick.

The rights to Ted Ruth for Sergei Fedorov

Intial Reaction: Again a surprise. Not that Fedorov was moved, but that the Capitals were able to pick him up. Who’s Ted Ruth?

Pros
(1) Fedorov is an offensively skilled center who can hopefully fill Michael Nylander’s shoes.
(2) Ted Ruth is far from a blue-chip prospect.
(3) Fedorov seems a good fit for the Capitals second line since he’s historically a good defensive center, gives Alexander Semin a Russian countryman to work with and has undeniable offensive talent.
(4) Fedorov has played 1178 NHL games, 162 NHL playoff games and won three Stanley Cups. That’s the kind of veteran presence you want when you’re making a playoff push.
(5) Fedorov’s contract expires after this season.

Cons
(1) Fedorov has become too lazy too often in recent years.

Grade: A-. Fedorov is a great pick up for the Capitals second line because he not only has offensive skill but because he is a two-time Selke winner who speaks Semin’s language (literally).

Matt Pettinger for Matt Cooke

Initial Reaction: A fair trade and a solid pickup for a player (Pettinger) who needed a change of scenery.

Pros
(1) Matt Cooke is a solid defensive player.
(2) Pettinger couldn’t seem to get things going in D.C. this year, so maybe a new locale will help.
(3) Cooke provides grit and agitation skills, something the Caps could use a little more of.

Cons
(1) Pettinger has more offensive upside than Cooke.
(2) At 27, Pettinger is two years younger than Cooke.

Grade: B. Simply a good, fair trade that will probably benefit both teams in the end.

Aggregate Grade: B+ A-*. To me, these trades are even better than they initially look because each player has some advantage beyond their playing skill: that the Caps can start negotiations with Huet for the future earlier than anyone else, Fedorov’s experience and potential to mesh well with Semin and Cooke’s agitation tendencies. The Capitals filled two of their biggest holes with the acquisition of Fedorov and Huet and didn’t give up a whole lot doing it and for the trades that were made I’d give them an A/A-. However there were two notables non moves: the failure to trade for a big, mean stay-at-home defenseman and the decision to hold on to Steve Eminger. Perhaps they were the best decisions because perhaps the Capitals couldn’t get a stay-at-home defender for what they were willing to give up and perhaps they didn’t get any decent offers for Eminger. But those non-moves keep this deadline from being a complete success…although the team came much closer than anyone could have expected.

*Okay, Mark, you convinced me!

Minnesota Wild at Washington Capitals
February 26th, 2008, 7:00 PM
Verizon Center in Washington, D.C.
TV: Versus

About the Opponent

Minnesota Wild: 34-23-5, 73 points, 2nd in the Northwest Division, 6th in the Western Conference

Team Leaders
Goals: Marian Gaborik (33)
Assists: Pierre-Marc Bouchard (38)
Points: Marian Gaborik (63)
Plus/Minus: tie - Keith Carney, Marian Gaborik (+10)
Penalty Minutes: Aaron Voros (115)
Fights: Aaron Voros (11)

Random Wild Fact
The Minnesota Wild have sold out every single regular season game in the franchise’s history.

Random Wild Statistic
During the NHL’s 2004-05 lockout, Marian Gaborik played for HC Dukla Trencin in Slovakia, where he posted a +43 rating in 29 games.

Keys to the Game

Washington
Clear the front of the net. The Capitals have let their opponents dictate play in front of their own net the last couple games and it has cost them. The defense (especially John Erskine) and centers need to step it up and eliminate scoring chances in this area.

Minnesota
Control the play. When the Wild have success they do so by controlling the pace and flow of the game. Tonight, against a skilled Washington team, will be no exception.

Players to Watch

Washington
Alexander Semin - a five game goal scoring streak has given Semin more confidence in his playmaking skill than he’s had all season. Look for Semin to create some offense - but not necessarily pot the goal(s) himself.

Minnesota
Marian Gaborik - When people talk about the unbalanced schedule, talk generally centers around the Western Conference fans who have to wait to see Alexander Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby, but missing out Gaborik is almost as bad. The immensely gifted Gaborik is a true game-breaker but is underrated because of his injury troubles - he’s played in only 170 of the Wild’s 226 games since the lockout. However if he were to play all his team’s games at the same per-game rate, Gaborik would have had 83 points (48+35) in 2005 and 97 in 2006(51+46). This season, Gaborik would be on pace for 47 goals and 43 assists.

Around the (Inter)net
Faux Rumors with more on the trade deadline…Darren McCarty has signed with the Red Wings…Tarik looks at how the makeup of the Southeast might change by the end of tomorrow…Could Brad Richards really be traded?…USA Today takes a loot at last year’s trades…Mike Vogel has some interesting thoughts about Mats Sundin and the nature of the trade deadline in general…A picture’s worth a thousand words, right?…Some more national exposure to come for the Caps…Thoughts on the Caps at the deadline from DC Sports Report.

With the trade deadline less than twenty-four hours away, talk around the NHL has (understandably) been focused on trades. The same is true in the nation’s capital where, for the first time in recent memory, the Capitals are not sellers at the deadline. But does that make them buyers?

Not necessarily. George McPhee has said that he may try and bolster the Capitals depth if he can acquire a player he thinks is worthwhile without giving up too much in the way of assets, be them players for future draft picks. While McPhee certainly has his supporters in this approach, there are more than a couple playoff-hungry Capitals fan who want to see McPhee make a big move to help lock up a playoff spot, and the names Brad Richards and Adam Foote are popping up way more than they should (which is to say, more than just in passing).

To understand my, and I suppose McPhee’s, aversion to making a big trade at the current deadline you have to look at the NHL’s general managers, the frameworks they use and what it takes to be successful versus what usually ends up with the GM getting the boot and a franchise in disrepair.

The best-run NHL organizations have one underlying factor: the interests of the general manager are aligned with the interests of the franchise in the long run. When this is the case a GM can make decisions with the long-term heath and competitiveness of the club in mind which, if the GM is decent at his job, means holding on to high draft picks and prospects while refraining from making unnecessary trades involving headline-grabbing names and overpaying for free agents. Provided such an organization is not hit by injuries and does a halfway decent job of drafting, it should remain competitive year in and year out, while still retaining a deep enough prospect pool that they can make a landscape-changing deal when they need it. Examples of such organizations in recent years include the Ottawa Senators, the Buffalo Sabres and the Montreal Canadiens.

The antithesis of these organizations are those that have general managers who are influenced by something other than the best interests of their team, be it a clamoring fan base, intense media scrutiny or an overbearing owner. These situations almost inevitably breed failure, as GMs continually look for the all-but-unattainable: a solution that will fix all their problems and in readily available (a combination of “fix-all” and “quick-fix”). The results are ugly as teams wind up mortgaging their future, oftentimes to get only marginally better. Caps fans don’t need to look at further than Southeast rival Atlanta and Caps Blue Line’s least favorite currently-employed GM, Don Waddell to find an example for how easily things can go awry for an organization in this situation. Another recent example would be John Ferguson Jr.’s tenure in Toronto.

General managers like Waddell and Ferguson only win as a happy accident and subsequently simply do not win consistently. Rather than being the ones who steer their teams to glory, these GMs are the ones who are taken advantage of by their more savvy peers. As an aside, Paul Holmgrin, in Philadelphia, has proven quite adept at this, taking advantage of David Poile and Craig Leopold’s initial drive to make noise in the playoffs and then to cut costs in Nashville, Waddell’s desperation to make the playoffs and keep his job and Kevin Lowe’s general insanity and embarrassment at not signing Ryan Smyth. Holmgrin was in turn able to spin (1) Peter Forsberg for Ryan Parent, Scottie Upshall, a 1st round pick and a 3rd round pick (2) Alexei Zhitnik for Braydon Coburn (3) Joni Pitkanen, Geoff Sanderson and a 3rd round pick for Jason Smith and Joffrey Lupul and (4) a 1st round pick for Kimmo Timonen and Scott Hartnell.

Back to the matter at hand: this is why I think McPhee has the right approach. I’d rather the Capitals organization be talked about the way Buffalo or Ottawa has been in recent years, not the way Atlanta and Toronto are.

As it turns out, Peter Forsberg will return this season, to one of his former teams: the Colorado Avalanche.

Update: The current poll on TSN.ca reads “Is Peter Forsberg still a difference-maker”, to which 55% of respondents said ‘No’. I know he’s oft injured and not what he used to be, but Forsberg still had 55 points in 57 games last year and has been a plus player every single year he’s been in the NHL.

Capitals 1, Devils 2 (OT)

Marty Brodeur is really good at hockey.

All photos AP/Getty by way of Yahoo!

Capitals 3, Hurricanes 6

In a game players, coaches, fans and media agreed was the most important of the season to this point, the Capitals came out looking sharp and aggressive and controlled play for the first ten minutes of the game…but ultimately succumbed to bad luck and bad individual efforts. And no, the Caps didn’t lose because of any bad sports clichés that are sure to be thrown around in the wake of this game, phrases like “they don’t know how to win”, “they’re too inexperienced” or “they didn’t have the effort”.

The bad luck part is pretty self-explanatory: each of the Hurricanes first two goals came on the powerplay, with a Capitals player (David Steckel and then Milan Jurcina) without a stick. Without those bad breaks (no pun intended) and several very nice saves by Cam Ward, the Capitals could have easily been ahead three or four to nothing halfway through the third, instead of trailing 3-2.

There are two players whose efforts were poor enough to be significant contributions to the loss. One was Olaf “this is the biggest game of the season” Kolzig, who may be the victim of comparisons more than anything else. The two most obvious players Kolzig could be compared with are Alexander Ovechkin and Cam Ward and in neither case does he come out looking very good. Comparing Kolzig (the face of the franchise for more than ten years) with Ovechkin (the face of the franchise for the next thirteen at least) comes somewhat naturally in general. But the comparison was even more obvious this week. Leading into this game both Ovechkin and Kolzig addressed the game’s importance and recently each has addressed their own personal underperformance (the difference of course being that Ovechkin’s lasted about a week while Kolzig’s has gone on for several months), yet the responses of the players could not have been more different. Ovechkin was a dominant force, picking up assists on each of the Capitals’ goals and registering eight shots of his own, while also racking up five hits. Kolzig stopped 85.7% of the shots that came his way and had terrible rebound control all game. Kolzig’s average performance was also highlighted by the play of Cam Ward in the Hurricanes net. Unlike Kolzig, Ward made a number of difficult, crucial saves to keep his team in the game. If the team’s had switched goaltenders last night, not only would the Hurricanes have not won the game - it wouldn’t even have been close. All that said, though, Kolzig wasn’t very good, but he also wasn’t as bad as his numbers.

The more pressing concern in my mind was the continued poor play of John Erskine, who was directly responsible for two of the Capitals’ goals against, one when he failed to clear the puck in front of the net and one when he let Andrew Ladd get enough space and time that he was able to knock the puck past a prone Kolzig. That kind of play isn’t acceptable out of any defenseman; it’s especially not acceptable out of a 6′4”, 218 pound defenseman who’s a poor skater and has no offensive upside. What’s worse is that this can’t be chalked up to a bad game - opponents have consistently been getting time and space in front of the net and creating scoring chances when Erskine is on the ice. Honestly, I don’t know how he’s still getting a sweater.

The bad news is the Capitals are now six points out of the division lead. The good news is that (1) they still hold three games in hand on Carolina and (2) the team is one solid defensive defenseman and possibly a goaltending upgrade from being one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference, so even if the playoffs aren’t in the cards in 2008, they should be in 2009.

All photos AP/Getty by way of Yahoo!

A lot of the talk around this one is going to center on the game importance; most Caps fans didn’t need Olaf Kolzig to tell them that this is the biggest game of the year. I can’t really elaborate on that in prose (plus I’m sure that JP and Caps Chick will do a much better job of it than me), so I can just present you with what I do best: cold, hard facts. And numbers. Now, if I could just somehow work a graph into this preview, I’d be in heaven…*

The importance of the game is thus: If the Capitals win, they’ll be two points out of first with three games in hand. If Carolina wins, the Caps still have the three games in hand, but they’ll be six points out. With how tight things are right now, that’s a world of difference.

Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes
Saturday, February 23rd, 2008, 5:00 PM
RBC Center in Raleigh, North Carolina
TV: CSN+
Last Meeting: 2/8/2008, Caps lose 2-1

About the Opponent

Carolina Hurricanes: 31-28-5, 67 points, 1st in the Southeast Division, 3rd in the Eastern Conference

Team Leaders
Goals: Eric Staal (29)
Assists: tie - Rod Brind’Amour and Ray Whitney (32)
Points: Ray Whitney (57)
Plus/Minus: Bret Hedican (+16)
Penalty Minutes: Tim Gleason (74)
Fights: Wade Brookbank (8)

Random Hurricanes Fact
According to Wikipedia, ‘Canes winger and United States Olympian Erik Cole “is the only player in the NHL to ever be accorded two penalty shots in the same game.”

Random Hurricanes Statistic
28% of the Hurricanes goals this season have come on the powerplay.

Keys to the Game

Washington
Avoid mistakes. One of the Capitals’ calling cards early in the season was solid play for most of the game, with a few disastrous moments mixed in. During their recent struggles, this trend seems to have reoccurred. Whether it’s giving up a shorthanded goal, allowing the other team to score from behind the goal line, or blown defensive coverage, the Capitals need to avoid making these kinds of mistakes, because Carolina is going to be enough of a test without any extra help.

Carolina
Play a full sixty minutes. The Capitals have given up leads in five straight games, so the opposition isn’t out of it until the final buzzer.

Players to Watch

Washington
Alexander Ovechkin - when Ovechkin said the team may have been distracted on their recent vacation-like tour through Florida, he may have been speaking for himself as much as any other players. But a big game, with Alex having gone three in a row without a point…I think he’s the player to watch.

Olaf Kolzig - The last time Washington went up against Carolina, for the division lead, it was Brent Johnson in net. Kozlig has to feel like he’s got something to prove.

Carolina
Joe Corvo - As solid as they’ve been offensively in recent years, the ‘Canes haven’t had a good puck moving defenseman. The fact that they now do, with the addition of Corvo, makes them even more dangerous (for more about Joe Corvo visit this informative post from Japers’ Rink). As an aside, man do I like Japers’ Rink today.

*Yeah, that’s good enough to earn an ‘economics’ label.

Around the (Inter)net
If everyone keeps playing at the same pace they have been so far in 2008, the Caps will make the playoffs…The many faces of Wayne Gretzky…Apparently Alexander Semin isn’t a very good defensive player (who knew?)…Snippets from George McPhee and Bruce Boudreau…Someone’s going to have to make a trade, because these trade rumor stories are getting weirder and weirder…