Reminder: weekly Caps chat with Washington Post beat writer Tarik El-Bashir today at 2.

Good questions for the most part and Tarik, as always, did a fantastic job. One I’d like to note (and not just because getting my questions answered makes me feel smart…although it does):

Atlanta, GA: Mr. El Bashir,

What’s the general mood around the Capitals these days? Do they feel like they’re a winning streak (and maybe, finally, some good luck) away from being back in the playoff race? Or do you get the impression the team feels that, with all the injuries and the hole they’re already in, they’re already headed for a lottery pick?

Tarik El-Bashir: I’ve got the feeling that some players believe a run is possible. But it’s going to take all of them, not just a handful.

Per Tarik at Caps Insider, the Capitals are again facing injuries problems. Alexander Semin’s ankle is hurt again (or is it ’still’?), Chris Clark is day-to-day with a groin injury and it looks like Boyd Gordon is likely going to miss a significant portion of time. To fill the roster spot the Capitals have recalled Quintin Laing from Hershey. The lines for tonight’s game in Carolina will reportedly look like:

Ovechkin/Nylander/Kozlov
Fleischmann/Backstrom/Semin
Pettinger/Steckel/Laing
Brashear/Laich/Bradley

Which is actually not too bad, all things considered.

But back to the issue at hand - are the Capitals cursed? To anyone who has watched the team this year it seems like a legitimate question, possibly even a rhetorical one. Ever since those first three games the Capitals have been victim to bad calls (especially at inopportune times), bad bounces and, most of all, injury woes, seeing Clark, Semin and Tom Poti all miss time concurrently.

Clark missed games from October 27th to November 10th; Poti missed games from October 26th to November 5th; hence to two of them were both out five games, which included two one-goal losses and one two-goal loss. In the game only Poti missed, the Capitals also lost by one goal; the the game only Clark missed the Capitals lost another one goal game. In addition Alexander Semin was either hurt or ineffective due to his injury for each game in that stretch.

From October 26th to November 10th, the Capitals lost four one goal games, and one two goal game. You have to believe that having at least two of the three of Clark, Poti and Semin available and helthy for those games would have let the Capitals pull out at least four, if not more, points (they did manage one, losing in overtime in Atlanta). If the Capitals had managed a decent showing in those five games, picking up five points, they’d be sitting at 22 right now, tired for 12th in the Conference and only four out of the last playoff spot. Not overwhelming, but a much more feasible take than what they do currently have in front of them.

There there is of course the issue of the Capitals simply not being able to catch a break which, obviously, there is much less analytical evidence for.

Partially as a result of the late-October through early-November stretch the Capitals have lost their confidence. For the most part I don’t think that they’ve lost confidence in their own ability or of the abilities of their teammates but they do seem to be convinced that the odds are stacked against them every night; that one bad turnover, one bad bounce, one referee’s mistakes is going to bury the team and that as a result they have to play near perfectly to overcome the fact that fortune is not smiling on them. You can see it in the team’s body language after the first goal of every game. If the Caps get it they look enthused, encouraged, like they’re thinking “This could be our night, but even if it’s not we’ve got a head start”. If the opposition scores first the Caps body language is “Damn it, now we’re in a hole and it’s going to take a miracle for us to get out of it the way things are going”.

So, how does the team get out of this mindset and out of the string of bad luck? Well the most common answer would probably be: win. There is of course a certain validity to that. Winning will give the team confidence and hopefully build momentum. But in my opinion that is not enough. The Capitals needs to win a couple games that they don’t deserve to win, or at least win some close games handily because they got some good luck, in order to boost the team confidence that what is beyond their control isn’t going to bury them on a regular basis. If the Caps start believing that, they will be able to weather adversity better and should start pulling off wins in game they fall behind or are outplayed early.

Eventually the bounces and the 50/50 calls are going to start going the Capitals way and if this team is playing reasonably well when they do they will be able to go on a run and make up significant ground in the standings. What the team needs to be able to do is hold its head above water in the standings (so they aren’t in an impossible hole to get themselves out of) and keep playing well on the ice (so they can take advantage of the good luck and wins games when it finally comes around).

This is not Capitals related, but I was perusing through my hockey videos and stumbled across this gem of an ad from our neighbors to the north:

OLD TIME INTER-OFFICE POLITICS, EH?!

Much better than the horrible PSAs they’re running up there now, right?

Capitals 1, Panthers 2 (SO)

Earlier this week I said that the Caps should look to pick up four points in their two games against Florida and one against Carolina before heading into a lengthy break in which they could fully absorb Boudreau’s new system. After picking up a point in the shootout loss last night the team can still do so, but they missed their best opportunity for two in their home game against a mediocre (but streaking) Florida team.

Florida ought to consider itself lucky to have picked up the two points. I’ll give them credit enough to deserve one, but the Capitals should have had 1:59 of 5-on-3 to close out the overtime session. They refs managed to catch the Cullimore trip but they blew what should have been an easy roughing or interference call as Nylander was hit from behind and knocked down in front of the Panthers net. Maybe it was one of those situations where the refs were being lenient because another penalty had already been called, I don’t know. But an infraction as blatant as that one needs to be picked up no matter what. As it was the Caps had seven overtime shots; with a 5-on-3 and nothing to lose you’d have to like their chances of picking up a goal.

The Cats also lucked out when Clark and Semin became unavailable for the shootout. Semin would have shot no matter what; Clark may not have, but you’d have to think he’d go before Pothier, Poti or Steckel.

In non game-related thoughts I’d have to say that I’m pretty sure Craig Laughlin is crazy. He was saying in the game tonight (and has said in the past) that it’s an advantage for a shooter to be the opposite handedness of a goalie, i.e. that a left-handed shooter will have an advantage over goalie who catches with his right hand. I’m usually ready to agree to disagree and accept that other people’s opinions can differ from mine, but let me tell you here - Laughlin is wrong.

As someone who played goalie for years let me tell you that it’s easier to stop a puck with your glove hand. That hand is lighter, there’s no stick to make it awkward, you can catch with it and it’s easier to make the play with your palm facing outwards that in towards you. As a shooter it’s easier to not have to come across your body; for a right handed shooter (like Ovechkin or Semin) to shoot high-glove on a left-catching goalie (like Kolzig). Thus if the blocker is worn on the opposite hand of the handedness of the shooter, it’s an advantage to the shooter. Come on Laughlin, why do you think the majority of NHL players shoot lefty? Why do you think Canadian coaches and parents tech their kids to shoot left, resulting in ridiculously high levels of left-handed golf club sales north of the border?

Quick Hits

• As much as I love Donald Brashear, the Caps may need to look for another enforcer in the offseason. Brash obviously has trouble keeping up with the pace in the NHL at his age and has taken a lot of bad penalties this year.
• The Capitals honored Sean Taylor before the game.
• I hear Dave Andreychuk used to do a drill where he would dump a bunch of pucks in and around the crease and practice snapping them high into the net as quickly as he could. Someone should show Viktor Kozlov this drill.
• Boyd Gordon’s shootout goal beautiful. How beautiful? I got so excited I jumped up, pumped my first, and wrenched my back.
• The ice at the Verizon Center seems to be getting worse every game. Can it get any worse than last night’s game? I doubt it. I mean, how can you make worse ice than when it doesn’t even freeze?
• Of course the terrible ice can work to your advantage - Nylander nearly won the game with his bouncing dump-in on Vokoun. Just think of it as a home rink advantage.

Shootouts
Florida	Ville Peltonen shootout saved
Washington	Mike Green shootout saved
Florida	Olli Jokinen shootout goal
Washington	Alexander Ovechkin shootout saved
Florida	Jozef Stumpel shootout saved
Washington	Viktor Kozlov shootout goal
Florida	Nathan Horton shootout goal
Washington	Nicklas Backstrom shootout goal
Florida	Rostislav Olesz shootout saved
Washington	Michael Nylander shootout saved
Florida	Steve Montador shootout saved
Washington	Brooks Laich shootout miss
Florida	Richard Zednik shootout saved
Washington	Matt Pettinger shootout saved
Florida	Kamil Kreps shootout goal
Washington	Boyd Gordon shootout goal
Florida	Jay Bouwmeester shootout saved
Washington	Dave Steckel shootout miss
Florida	David Booth shootout saved
Washington	Tom Poti shootout saved
Florida	Stephen Weiss shootout goal
Washington	Brian Pothier shootout saved

Another dirty hit from a Flyers player:

Generally I am adamantly opposed to fining coaches or franchises for the actions of their players on the ice, but the Flyers have gotten so out of control I think it would be appropriate.

I will admit that I wasn’t able to watch last nights game, but here’s what I gathered from the reactions of others:

• John Erskine is not a very good skater
• Alexander Ovechkin is very good
• The ice at Verizon Center is very bad
• The Sabres uniforms are still stupid looking

So, we now know that Bruce Boudreau is not a miracle worker who will go 61-0-0 this year. But other than that, what did the loss tell Caps fans? In my opinion, nothing really. Any team is going to have losses and any team is going to have bad losses, that’s just the nature of hockey. The test will be seeing how this team comes back and responds to the loss Wednesday night against the Panthers.

Speaking of the schedule, the Capitals end their stretch of ten games in sixteen days this Saturday when they again play Florida (the game in between is against Carolina, in Raleigh). The busy stretch under Boudreau would have to be considered a success if the Capitals can take two out of these three games, which would put Boudreau’s record at 4-2-0 going into a five-day layoff, which should give the team time to learn the intricacies of Boudreau’s system. Needless to say, if the team picks up eight points in their first six games under Boudreau and then has a chance to fully adapt to his system, they will be in pretty good shape considering how things looked when Boudreau took over behind the bench.

While it should not be expected that the Capitals will beat the Hurricanes at home (which has as much to do with how good the ‘Canes are as it does the Caps), it should at this point be expected that the Caps take both games from the Panthers. Simply put, the Capitals are better than the Panthers. They have better scorers, better defense and better depth, and as desperate as they need to be at this point they should come out and take care of the Panthers. No matter what the Capitals have a long road ahead of them if they want to get back into contention, and these games against Florida will be key in determining whether or not they have it in them.

TSN reports that Maple Leafs President Richard Peddie has called the hiring of Leafs GM John Ferguson Jr. “a mistake”.

So there you have. Hiring Ferguson was officially a mistake. In other news the sky is blue, the Pope is Catholic and just about everyone on the Leafs blueline is overpaid.

Capitals 5, Hurricanes 2

What’s more encouraging that a 4-3 overtime win against the 5th place team in the Eastern Conference? A 5-2 win over the 2nd place team in the Eastern Conference.

Anyone seen the movie “Major League“? If you have, you may remember this quote:

“You guys won today. You guys won yesterday, so that’s two in a row. If you win again tomorrow, that’s called a ‘winning streak’. It has happened before.”

…which pretty much sums up where the Capitals stand at this point.

For the second game in a row the Capitals came out and played with more jump, more creativity and more confidence than we’ve seen most of the season and looked like they expected to win. Boudreau’s arrival may have sparked that confidence but the two wins over tough opponents is what’s really going to help it grow.

One immediate change: special teams. It’s been said many times that the key to success in the post-lockout NHL (I refuse to use the term “new NHL” anymore. It’s been two full seasons people.) is good special teams and the Caps certainly had that tonight - they were 3-4 on the powerplay and killed off all three Carolina man advantages.

Next up: Buffalo, another team playing below their expectations this year, at Verizon Center, Monday.

DMG’s 3 Stars
(1) Olaf Kolzig (35 saves on 37 shots; .946 save percentage)
(2) Alex Ovechkin (2 goals)
(3) Michael Nylander (1 goal, 2 assists)

Quotable

“If we have success next week, we’re right back in it”

Quick Hits

• I’m sure many a Canes fan will be crying foul over Justin Williams‘ disallowed goal, but it was the right call. My logic: the puck moved downwards after it made contact with the stick and still hit the crossbar, ergo the stick was above the crossbar when it hit the puck.
• Backstrom continued his solid play on the 4th line, picking up a pair of assists.
• According to the broadcast team in Comcast, Boudreau received a congratulatory call from none other than Don Cherry in the last couple days.
• With the way he skates, hits and plays in the offensive zone, Mike Green is going to become one of the most exciting defensemen in this league to watch.
• It’s not surprising Erik Cole managed to split the ‘D’ pairing of Milan Jurcina and John Erskine, as Cole is one of the better skaters in the NHL and neither Jurcina or Erskine is exactly agile.
• Great crowd at the Verizon Center last night, both in numbers and enthusiasm.

Capitals 4, Flyers 3 (OT)

Well. That was encouraging.

Before anything else, let me say this: the Caps, as a whole, played well enough to deserve better than a one-goal overtime win. The first Flyers goal shouldn’t have happened - it should have been blown dead by the officials. The second Flyers goal shouldn’t have happened because Olie shouldn’t let that shot in.

The Capitals controlled the play most of the game, outshooting their opponents in every period and 35-25 for the game. But the most impressive stretch came early in the first. With Shaone Morrisonn already in the box, Jeff Schultz inadvertently sent a rolling puck over the glass in his own end, giving the Flyers a 5-on-3 for 1:45. The Capitals were able to kill off the entirety of the penalty and maintain their one goal lead, keeping their slim margin early in the game in the face of adversity and giving a significant boost to a team lacking in confidence.

But the story of the game for the Capitals really was aggressiveness. Boudreau had mentioned that several times leading into the game and it made all the difference. Rather than sitting back and play tentative the Caps forechecked hard, worked to beat the Flyers to the puck and outhit Philly 15-14 (that’s not as close as it looks - Scott Hartnell had six), and showed that they are indeed a good NHL team. The Caps have a lot of good skaters and they’re the biggest team in the NHL - if they are allowed to play aggressively and pressure their opponents they should generally expect good things to happen.

So what’s next? A home matchup this Saturday against Carolina where the Caps will try win two in a row for the fist time this season after their 3-0, and start a winning streak that will get them back into the playoff picture (they’re currently seven points out, pending today’s results). Is it just me, or do other people have more confidence that they’ll be able to do that than at any other point this season?

DMG’s 3 Stars

(1) Nicklas Backstrom (1 goal (the game winner), 2 assists, +2)
(2) Tom Poti (2 assists, 27:02 of ice time)
(3)Alexander Ovechkin (1 assist (a nice one on the game winner), +2, 4 shots, 23:06 of ice time)

* Note/Edit: Final T.O.I. differs slightly from what was posted here b/c I put this up shortly after the game’s conclusion.

Quotable

“It’s subtle changes, not like you’re revamping the whole thing. I just think the mind-set sometimes has got to change, and the culture’s got to change. They’ve got to believe that they’re really good players.”

Quick Hits

• I have no analytic data but I would venture to guess a good 30% of the goals against Olaf Kolzig this year have come through the five-hole.
• Thank you, Kimmo Timonen. Just as your team was really starting to get momentum, you took a stupid, obvious and unnecessary penalty to put the Caps on the powerplay.
• Even though his team lost, I’m sure Daniel Briere had fun today. Not only did he get to jam his stick between a Capitals player’s legs - he got a goal when he did!
• Seriously though, there were quick whistles all day - where were they on Briere’s goal?
• Horrible, horrible slashing call on Tom Poti with 2:18 left in the game.
• Either Nicklas Backstrom is really comfortable on the fourth line or he had something to prove, notching the game winner and two assists on his 20th birthday.

On Frozen Blog has links to reactions from Caps players and personnel. Video clips here. Boudreau’s is especially interesting.

More Boudreau commentary, from the Bears radio announcer:

I also know that some of you in discussion boards have wondered what Bruce Boudreau will do for your team, with some of you thinking “here we go again” with another AHL coach being called up instead of some “name” coach for big bucks. I just wanted to let you know, as a humble servant of your minor league affiliate, I believe Bruce is the guy you need. Bruce Boudreau is one of the greatest people I’ve ever been around, a great leader of men with just enough grit to go with his compassion for his players to get the job done for you.